Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Let’s pile on the misery & never look for a way out! Great way to go about life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 So what do we have here? Christmas 2021 has a solid chance to be warmer in many parts of PA than: Friday and Saturday of Easter weekend Mother’s Day 2 out of the 3 days of Memorial Day weekend Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: I don’t think it’s a good idea to look at snow maps for over ten days away. It’s setting us up for disappointment. But most of us take it with a grain of salt. It's all fun, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: But most of us take it with a grain of salt. It's all fun, right? Exactly! Fun. I am trying to find the snow train! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: But most of us take it with a grain of salt. It's all fun, right? We only get to track snow for a few months each year… Win or lose…I’m going to try to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: But most of us take it with a grain of salt. It's all fun, right? It is fun!!! That is why we are here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: It is fun!!! That is why we are here I wish it could be like that all the time. Fun. Anyway, I understand anothermans point but we are not doing public forecast here. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 No doubt we should enjoy the tracking season. And I’m all for getting excited when it’s warranted. My problem is with the snow maps. They are often misleading that far out. I want to see what the overall pattern looks like so we can see how realistic our chances are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: No doubt we should enjoy the tracking season. And I’m all for getting excited when it’s warranted. My problem is with the snow maps. They are often misleading that far out. I want to see what the overall pattern looks like so we can see how realistic our chances are. You just love it it is all good thanks Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 And I do appreciate Blizz’s relentless effort to brew up a snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: No doubt we should enjoy the tracking season. And I’m all for getting excited when it’s warranted. My problem is with the snow maps. They are often misleading that far out. I want to see what the overall pattern looks like so we can see how realistic our chances are. Exactly. Even if we end up being shut out for the season and we spend all of the season learning how and why we are getting screwed (climate change), I would rather we just discuss the weather, and what the various guidance shows us, than look at clown porn 15 days out that reality tells us will be gone in about four cycles of guidance. The harsh reality is we're getting run over here. It's happening. It's not likely to change. The only thing that's been changing here lately has been the date in which the pattern shift is to commence. So personally, and I know I am a vocal minority here, but I'm here to learn as much as I am to make light of this shit and enjoy the weather. My fear of maths is why I'm not a red tagger. So as much as I love the extremes within each season, I'm genuinely interested in the science of why we're getting the shaft and not so much interested in looking at the future 396 hours from now. If I wanted to see a prediction for three weeks from now that's sure to be vague and end up unverified, I'd pick up the writings of Michael de Nostradame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: And I do appreciate Blizz’s relentless effort to brew up a snowstorm. 9 minutes ago, anotherman said: No doubt we should enjoy the tracking season. And I’m all for getting excited when it’s warranted. My problem is with the snow maps. They are often misleading that far out. I want to see what the overall pattern looks like so we can see how realistic our chances are. Thanks. I have posted a ton of H5 maps recently. I was looking at a different angle and found a positive trend to monitor as we soon roll into early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Looks like it’s heading towards Tamaqua! I see that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s pile on the misery & never look for a way out! Great way to go about life! I concur. Let’s keep doing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 22 minutes ago, paweather said: It is fun!!! That is why we are here Couldn’t think of a better group of people to commiserate with as the winter we’ve been dreaming about since last spring slowly slips away from us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Harrisburg has been on a very good run for snow totals since 2013-14, with the exception of course of the dreaded Winter of 19-20. We have been on one of the better snow runs over the last 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Harrisburg has been on a very good run for snow totals since 2013-14, with the exception of course of the dreaded Winter of 19-20. We have been on one of the better snow runs over the last 40 years. Looking over this chart, there have been a few stretches of 4 or 5 years in a row with below normal snow. I can’t imagine how this place would be if that happened again! We have been on a good run in most of the recent years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Couldn’t think of a better group of people to commiserate with as the winter we’ve been dreaming about since last spring slowly slips away from us. We have everything you could want. Long rangers, people who look for anomalies, posters who will drill the HRRR for being off by a degree or two, wind racists and wind worshipers, our very own HR and training manager, drive by snipers, sports nuts and sports haters, more than one person who drives water places, people who work at home and can post twice what others do, a poster who only gets an hour or two of sun per day in the winter, like 10 different posters who call themselves paweather (insert number here), people in West central PA who only post when it snows, an actual met, NEWMAN!, occasional posts from Mets fans, people who miss ice resistance, people who have too much grass, people who are always in drought, South of the mason dixoners, and of course a guy who cannot handle the massive post count of the Pitt thread so he stops in here for a break. We are like the nexus of the universe here. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: It has been a very nice run looking back . 2009/10 looks low to me for Harrisburg . Average along the M/D line was 90-105" . Harrisburg got kind of fringed with the December 09 storm with only near 10 inches. The 20 inch totals were closer to southern York & Lancaster. We also missed out on some of the late January snow that MD got just before the historic February storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have everything you could want. Long rangers, people who look for anomalies, posters who will drill the HRRR for being off by a degree or two, wind racists and wind worshipers, our very own HR and training manager, drive by snipers, sports nuts and sports haters, more than one person who drives water places, people who work at home and can post twice what others do, a poster who only gets an hour or two of sun per day in the winter, like 10 different posters who call themselves paweather (insert number here), people in West central PA who only post when it snows, an actual met, NEWMAN!, occasional posts from Mets fans, people who miss ice resistance, people who have too much grass, people who are always in drought, South of the mason dixoners, and of course a guy who cannot handle the massive post count of the Pitt thread so he stops in here for a break. We are like the nexus of the universe here. TL;DR Just kidding. Great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: TL;DR Just kidding. Great post! I am sure someone I left out is angrily wasting staples in anger right now. I know I forgot the tug hill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Couldn’t think of a better group of people to commiserate with as the winter we’ve been dreaming about since last spring slowly slips away from us. trying to take that as a complement.... Right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: trying to take that as a complement.... Right?? Was 100% meant that way. No sarcasm that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Decent N to NNW low level chilly feed late Sunday into Monday morning courtesy of a high north of the lakes trying to nose in ahead of the Monday system. Should have a good chance at getting near or below freezing ahead of potential front end early Monday am ( good timing ). I'm Definitely not looking past it just yet especially with nothing else on the horizon. HH Gefs has trended baby bumps cooler past few runs . Ensembles and occasionally op runs have been hinting at the possibility Monday for days but not a solid signal ofc. The 18z Euro Control has this Monday potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 No doubt we are headed for zonal pattern as depicted above. Concern has to be w/ persistent ridge in central basin and why it wont go away...even w/ neg AO/NAO period upcoming. Its like the displaced but not denied GOA LP is relentless. LR guidance suggests they both get bumped, but I'm not sure that they get displaced. Trying to wrap my head around this conundrum we're in. Me thinks MJO dive in 7 is what surface pattern is reflecting...and correcting to as well as AO/NAO not staying neg. Me hopes me is wrong. Gotta grab another bevvy....Covid almost gone, n daughter now tests positive tonight. Son likely will tomorrow. Wife.....tough cookie. It's all good. We'll take our Omni (73.2 of all cases now Omni Bubbles) and deal w/ it. Unfortunately daughter came home from Denver to see fam/friends....bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gefs looks good early January. Op has a ridge in the east at the same time. despite what GEFS shows....Op should be measured w/ heavy dose of salt beyond d7. I can get gazillions of pics to show 6 hr swings....even if it ends up correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have everything you could want. Long rangers, people who look for anomalies, posters who will drill the HRRR for being off by a degree or two, wind racists and wind worshipers, our very own HR and training manager, drive by snipers, sports nuts and sports haters, more than one person who drives water places, people who work at home and can post twice what others do, a poster who only gets an hour or two of sun per day in the winter, like 10 different posters who call themselves paweather (insert number here), people in West central PA who only post when it snows, an actual met, NEWMAN!, occasional posts from Mets fans, people who miss ice resistance, people who have too much grass, people who are always in drought, South of the mason dixoners, and of course a guy who cannot handle the massive post count of the Pitt thread so he stops in here for a break. We are like the nexus of the universe here. Props pal....props...... Well done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Was 100% meant that way. No sarcasm that time. So....you admit to a little sarcasm.......eh??? Askin for my friends.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: No doubt we are headed for zonal pattern as depicted above. Concern has to be w/ persistent ridge in central basin and why it wont go away...even w/ neg AO/NAO period upcoming. Its like the displaced but not denied GOA LP is relentless. LR guidance suggests they both get bumped, but I'm not sure that they get displaced. Trying to wrap my head around this conundrum we're in. Me thinks MJO dive in 7 is what surface pattern is reflecting...and correcting to as well as AO/NAO not staying neg. Me hopes me is wrong. Gotta grab another bevvy....Covid almost gone, n daughter now tests positive tonight. Son likely will tomorrow. Wife.....tough cookie. It's all good. We'll take our Omni (73.2 of all cases now Omni Bubbles) and deal w/ it. Unfortunately daughter came home from Denver to see fam/friends....bummer. 73 percent is a country number, not PA. Only a few hundred to thousand cases in Pa per the stats I last saw. It's Omicron, not OMNI. Many counties in PA have had no cases of Omicron including big boy Allegheny which had no confirmed cases as of yesterday (though officials expect they may have some non reported). Just keeping the info real. Only 6 cases in PA as of 5 days ago but several hundred this week. https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/6-omicron-variant-cases-now-232815145.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: So....you admit to a little sarcasm.......eh??? Askin for my friends.......... At times, very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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