Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Show me the GFS January maps? LOL. No one is saying a pattern cannot change its simply a PBP of a model run. How much snow did you have on the GFS 24 hours ago? How much do you have on this Am's run? Over a foot vs. a couple inches. High near freezing on Christmas day 24 hours ago....now 65-70. Probably neither will be right but there is little to no good news on the 6Z GFS. The 24 hour prior GFS was also an 'Off model run". All I'll say to this for now is without a favorable setup, models will; as they always do, adjust to the pattern. I think we'll definitely have opportunities for wintry weather, I also think that odds strongly favor storms cutting to our west. Doesn't mean we can't time a nice storm. As you and Tim have stated, this might very well be a winter when models continue to adjust to an unfavorable solution as threats approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Please read what @anotherman posted… Maybe a few of you will consider not punting because of some random Op run while everything else is pointing to better days ahead next week. Who said they were punting? No one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 Here is what I think of the accuracy of teleconnection forecasting as it pertains to snow storms (its better for air masses.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Who said they were punting? No one. Lol… There were lots of punters out earlier this week… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 @Bubbler86 Lol…Are you really saying that you would rather look at a long range Op run instead of teleconnections that truly drive the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, paweather said: I didn’t see any regression. In fact as Blizz says late December into January is looking much better can’t go off with these off run models and think the pattern isn’t going to change. This is my opinion only. Exactly. There are some on here that will not even believe it while there is an ongoing Winter storm Warning…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 0z CMC Ensemble at 384: 0z GFS Ensemble at 384: If I squint long enough at the GFS one it kinda looks like maybe it could be more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @Bubbler86 Lol…Are you really saying that you would rather look at a long range Op run instead of teleconnections that truly drive the pattern? I said was that I was doing a PBP on what the model showed. Specifically the lack of cold air in the Continental US at the end of the run. But I have frequently commented that I am not a fan of teleconnection forecasting, but by all means, anyone can speak about it. I did not reply to anyone's teleconnection post with anything negative. I did post a video stating that trying to pinpoint specific storms with teleconnections is like trying to hit a full court shot. That shot was damn funny, FWIW. Teleconnections do not drive the pattern....teleconnections are humans attempts at forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Exactly. There are some on here that will not even believe it while there is an ongoing Winter storm Warning…. January looked blank on the 6Z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol… There were lots of punters out earlier this week… Stop. Please. This is just not true. And it's not funny. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Stop. Please. This is just not true. And it's not funny. I do not remember anyone punting either. Just a couple days ago we were talking about the Euro trying to spin up a coastal in the week after this one. It's early winter so we could get snow even in the worst of patterns and this is not the worst of patterns. @Blizzard of 93, if you separate the model discussion posts from the pattern discussion, then you will probably have less angst. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 57 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Please read what @anotherman posted… Maybe a few of you will consider not punting because of some random Op run while everything else is pointing to better days ahead next week. Please read what people like Bubbler, Tim, and myself are saying. Which is NOT punting. I fully believe that the pattern will improve and wintry weather chances will come. I also think; by and large, the pattern overall for the winter (Nina) supports progressive, strung out weak systems, and wound up ones will cut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Stop. Please. This is just not true. And it's not funny. Let me go back later and find the posts… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Please read what people like Bubbler, Tim, and myself are saying. Which is NOT punting. I fully believe that the pattern will improve and wintry weather chances will come. I also think; by and large, the pattern overall for the winter (Nina) supports progressive, strung out weak systems, and wound up ones will cut. I really do think it will and hope it will, but have braced myself for the nonzero chance that it won’t. That’s all I’m saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I really do think it will and hope it will, but have braced myself for the nonzero chance that it won’t. That’s all I’m saying. Agree completely. I'm trying to balance the overall pattern with the idea that there will be times of some improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I really do think it will and hope it will, but have braced myself for the nonzero chance that it won’t. That’s all I’m saying. You cannot blame anyone for believing it will turn for the better nor anyone who does not believe. All we have are the tools to try and discuss and make a forecast if one desires. I think the one thing most agree on is that in this current pattern, we can have a snow storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Agree completely. I'm trying to balance the overall pattern with the idea that there will be times of some improvement. Of course there will be. I don’t believe that anyone finishes the winter with single digit snow totals or anything like that. We’re still a month or so from optimal climo. It probably won’t be like last winter and I’ve accepted that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 Very convoluted situation on the 12Z GFS in the upper 100's and lower 200's time frame. SLP's all over the Southern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 Hey @Blizzard of 93, I do remember doing a PBP where i said it was brought to you by Jeff Feagles and Ray Guy. I was punting the PBP...meaning it was not worth doing. I was not putting December. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 I mentioned punting in jest, but if I had to make a wager, I would be lying if I said I wouldn't put my money on a complete miss of a season. But that's based entirely on the following: 1) I'm a realist. Optimists misjudge realists as pessimists. Realistically, despite seeing several car and ground topper events IMBY already, the overall pattern has been complete dogeshit. Outside of a few people that I truly believe may be wishcasting based on some metrics that may not be worth the weight they are given, the general consensus appears to be a blah winter. 2) I genuinely believe the global climate as a whole is shifting to where the Northeastern quadrant of the NA continent is becoming a rainforest with overall cooling due to the winter max climbing and the summer max dropping with more overcast and showery days. I have precisely zero science to defend this belief, but it *seems* like with a very few outliers here and there, the winters for the past two decades have been warmer/wetter and the summers cooler/wetter. But that's just, you know... my opinion, man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 It’s all good everyone… I love this place and enjoy the interactions on here most days with everyone. Let’s have some fun as we await our first widespread Winter event in the coming period of time, hopefully by the holidays! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s all good everyone… I love this place and enjoy the interactions on here most days with everyone. Let’s have some fun as we await our first widespread Winter event in the coming period of time, hopefully by the holidays! I do too Bliz love it here and it is OK for people to have different opinions all good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: I mentioned punting in jest, but if I had to make a wager, I would be lying if I said I wouldn't put my money on a complete miss of a season. But that's based entirely on the following: 1) I'm a realist. Optimists misjudge realists as pessimists. Realistically, despite seeing several car and ground topper events IMBY already, the overall pattern has been complete dogeshit. Outside of a few people that I truly believe may be wishcasting based on some metrics that may not be worth the weight they are given, the general consensus appears to be a blah winter. 2) I genuinely believe the global climate as a whole is shifting to where the Northeastern quadrant of the NA continent is becoming a rainforest with overall cooling due to the winter max climbing and the summer max dropping with more overcast and showery days. I have precisely zero science to defend this belief, but it *seems* like with a very few outliers here and there, the winters for the past two decades have been warmer/wetter and the summers cooler/wetter. But that's just, you know... my opinion, man. I subscribe to this theory and would like to sign up for your newsletter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Atomixwx said: I mentioned punting in jest, but if I had to make a wager, I would be lying if I said I wouldn't put my money on a complete miss of a season. But that's based entirely on the following: 1) I'm a realist. Optimists misjudge realists as pessimists. Realistically, despite seeing several car and ground topper events IMBY already, the overall pattern has been complete dogeshit. Outside of a few people that I truly believe may be wishcasting based on some metrics that may not be worth the weight they are given, the general consensus appears to be a blah winter. 2) I genuinely believe the global climate as a whole is shifting to where the Northeastern quadrant of the NA continent is becoming a rainforest with overall cooling due to the winter max climbing and the summer max dropping with more overcast and showery days. I have precisely zero science to defend this belief, but it *seems* like with a very few outliers here and there, the winters for the past two decades have been warmer/wetter and the summers cooler/wetter. But that's just, you know... my opinion, man. In all honesty...post of the year material. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: In all honesty...post of the year material. Period. Yep, there is a difference between posting what is real vs. down talking something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 Gigantic difference in the 12Z GFS 350+ vs. 6Z...since we spoke about it so much. Trough drops down out west vs the Pacific controlled regime. Not snow news for us but cold air in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Gigantic difference in the 12Z GFS 350+ vs. 6Z...since we spoke about it so much. Trough drops down out west vs the Pacific controlled regime. Not snow news for us but cold air in the US. Right but does that cold air eventually intrude eastward? In years where the Pacific stream dominates the entire continent, that cold air doesn't breach the US/Canadian border. Does that bowling ball of cold come east and does it stay? That may be the real story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2021 Author Share Posted December 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Right but does that cold air eventually intrude eastward? In years where the Pacific stream dominates the entire continent, that cold air doesn't breach the US/Canadian border. Does that bowling ball of cold come east and does it stay? That may be the real story. Being at 384 I would not put too much thought into it the "pattern" shown at 6Z was not a good look with no cold air at all in the US. I think the Dec 20-23 threat is something to watch at least for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Gigantic difference in the 12Z GFS 350+ vs. 6Z...since we spoke about it so much. Trough drops down out west vs the Pacific controlled regime. Not snow news for us but cold air in the US. That is some frigid cold in the northern plains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Right but does that cold air eventually intrude eastward? In years where the Pacific stream dominates the entire continent, that cold air doesn't breach the US/Canadian border. Does that bowling ball of cold come east and does it stay? That may be the real story. Hopefully it pushes east just enough to put us on the right side of the boundary between the frigid air to the north vs. the warmth in the southeast. The storms could ride that contrasting boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now