Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I know there is a lot of doom and gloom but let's see at 12z if Euro is making a trend back to a weaker more Miller A type solution. This was a good step IMHO. 

Agreed. At this point I think the most important thing is getting this shortwave less amped, skinnier, and quicker. Euro took a nice step towards that. The jump warmer scared me but think there's bigger fish to fry upstairs first.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Agreed. At this point I think the most important thing is getting this shortwave less amped, skinnier, and quicker. Euro took a nice step towards that.

Yea I thought early on with our energy Thurs/Friday it was already weaker than the GFS. As always the waiting game. Hope it was worth staying up for :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GSP is going with an ensemble blend for now due to the uncertainty: 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 am EST Wednesday: The latest guidance suite is starting to feature a bit better agreement on the overall aspects of the winter storm likely to impact the area over the weekend. However, there remains some variation regarding low tracks, thermal profiles, and QPF for various periods, and these details continue to make precipitation types and amounts highly uncertain. Nearly all solutions have trended toward cutting off the southern portion of the split upper flow near the lower Mississippi River Valley by late Saturday. In a slight role reversal over the past 24 hours, the ECMWF 500 mb prognostic now features a cutoff low with a farther south low center position than the operational GFS. However, both models agree fairly well on the general timing, migrating the system over the Deep/Mid South Sunday and then over the Carolinas Sunday night as the system phases back into the northern stream. Meanwhile, sprawling surface high pressure from southern Ontario to New England will establish a strong cold air damming configuration east of the Appalachians ahead of the storm on Saturday. The resulting surface-based cold layer is becoming one of the more confident aspects of the upcoming weekend storm. The onset timing of wintry precipitation, however, remains uncertain. There are hints of weak and shallow upglide developing over the preexisting baroclinic zone as early as late Friday night or Saturday morning, with the isentropic lift slowly improving the day on Saturday well east of the approaching system. The forecast features below guidance temperatures and wintry ptypes at onset across the northern half. The period of deepest moisture and best forcing now looks slated for Saturday night through Sunday as a Deep South surface wave transitions to the Carolina coast. Strong jet-level divergence is indicated during this period and deformation zone forcing will likely impact our area by Sunday, especially over western NC given the current low track forecast. Precipitation types remain challenging. Profiles have trended to stronger warm nosing across the southern half of the area, with prolonged sleet and southern tier freezing rain now quite possible. However, the operational model runs appear warmer than most of the ensemble members, so much of the QPF could still fall as snow. An ensemble approach has been adopted for weekend profiles, which leads to more snow in the forecast than might be indicated on operational model profiles. The mixed ptype belt should especially impact locations southeast of I- 85, but with a changeover back to snow likely occurring from the west throughout on Sunday night as the system pulls away to the northeast. Scattered upslope snow showers should persist along the TN border counties through Sunday night, and possibly well into Monday, further enhanching snow amounts there. We are still a bit out of the Winter Storm Watch timeframe, so this will remain highlighted in the HWO. The main change will be the addition of sleet and freezing rain to the forecast, especially across the southeast part of the area. Another vigorous shortwave is forecast to drop southeast into the eastern trough Monday before the flow pattern flattens out by Tuesday. This could briefly reinvigorate western mountain snow showers, which may not have completely ended from the weekend system before this wave arrives. Upslope moisture will gradually end Monday night into Tuesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

How the heck does it go from Birmingham to Memphis? LOL. 

Its evolution of the features is a mess...my guess is the low track in the GFS depiction would go from Columbus-Augusta-SE NC-NYC.  It basically does not transfer off as quickly as I think it would in reality 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...