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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Can u tell if it's a phase or not?

hard to tell much of anything on those crummy panels. 

Also, no way i'm believing the qpf output on the gfs if it's right with the 500mb height map.  There would be way more liquid.

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17 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Pssst, hey @buckeyefan1, think the GFS is still on an island?emoji16.png

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It's not been on an island at all. Each of the models have all been hinting at this time frame for a few weeks now. I've mentioned this is a time to watch a few times :lol: I also like the first weekish of March as the pattern breaks down, so I'm not so certain that this will be the last opportunity anyone has. 

 

 

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I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.

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I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.
#PositiveVibesOnly

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12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.

I mean it has upside... look at the 00z GFS for the upside max potential... that'd be historic for some folks.

No reason to get too excited until the Euro jumps on board though. We saw this movie play out last week. (GFS showing snow and then complete cheap hooker fold). I'm a little more optimistic here though b/c the ukmet looks similar for now. And CMC has the trough axis pretty far west as well.

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