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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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I'm shocked people are trusting the Euro to get this right.  It's been beaten consistently by the GFS over the last month.

There were two runs yesterday where it looked like you might get consistency, only for the models to immediately relent on the phasing and make it a Nantucket special.  The setup remains quite precarious, with a delicate phase required to get anyone south of Boston into the snow.  That's likely why you'd have to favor it not happening.

That said, the trends over the last three runs have been to pull in that southern energy more and more leading to an earlier phase, rather than leave the energy elongated and lagged in the west.  The differences in 12Z from yesterday to today are quite subtle: more shallow ridge out west and a trough that's a bit too neutral and open.  The Canadian solutions are a little more obviously contrasted, but the 12Z run from yesterday for that was an extreme solution and always unlikely.

I would ride the GFS for this one and unless it goes back to an earlier phase and a steeper ridge position, it's probably game over outside of coastal New England.

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3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

hey wouldn't be mad at a 4-6 event even if out east got crushed..

Not at all. I would consider that a win as the snow is winding down and I can turn on the weather channel to watch the coverage in New England. 

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19 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Nam at range looks decent for a 2-4 event maybe more. More expansive precip zone.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50.png

I would definitely take some early overrunning snows as the low deepens offshore, even if we miss the wrap-up.

That said, it's a classic 84-hour NAM signature.  Must be part of its programming.  At 0Z I'll expect this to be 250 miles offshore and much drier.

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Just now, jwilson said:

I would definitely take some early overrunning snows as the low deepens offshore, even if we miss the wrap-up.

That said, it's a classic 84-hour NAM signature.  Must be part of its programming.  At 0Z I'll expect this to be 250 miles offshore and much drier.

I appreciate your analysis and wisdom but you crush weenies hearts lol.

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32 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I would definitely take some early overrunning snows as the low deepens offshore, even if we miss the wrap-up.

That said, it's a classic 84-hour NAM signature.  Must be part of its programming.  At 0Z I'll expect this to be 250 miles offshore and much drier.

Yea wishful thinking to hope the Nam is sniffing out a trend for a more tucked in solution. I think we are still in the game for some decent mood snow Friday afternoon from the northern stream feature sliding through. Unfortunately, the southern low is just way too far east when it develops that even a due north trajectory wouldn't help. It is looking more and more likely to be a classic for New England though. 

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2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I appreciate your analysis and wisdom but you crush weenies hearts lol.

Haha, I promise it's not intentional.  I try to be realistic about things.

Ironically, the 18Z GFS got really close to the NAM solution and continued the trend from the previous two runs.  There are still very subtle differences, with the ridge being slightly steeper and elevated on the NAM, while the GFS wants to tamp it down some.  The trough is also broader on the GFS than the NAM, which seems to push the surface low development just slightly off to the east and north.  We're talking OBX versus Cape Fear, a pretty minimal variation.  Both genesis the low off Jacksonville, FL.  The GFS wants that rapid NE movement, though.

I guess this is where I have a knowledge gap because I honestly don't understand that surface depiction from the GFS.  To me, the energy is actually even better consolidated than it was at 6Z Monday, which was the tightest coastal solution the GFS has shown of late.  If you compare the trough between the two, the 18Z run today has dug fairly significantly further south.  The 540 line is over Huntsville, AL as opposed to Bowling Green, KY.  Especially if you saw these two runs side-by-side, you'd look at the 500H today and almost certainly think, "that's turning the corner and would be the better outcome."

But it doesn't.  I'm having trouble understanding why.  Maybe the ridge out west being just a little flatter above Boise is enough?  Is the 850 low too far to the east and needs captured?  For now those are my only theories.  The way it looks at 500, I think, would result in some more northward pull, unless that 850 gets off the coast and moves everything with it?

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NAM doesn't look too bad. 36-hour QPF at the end of the run is 0.25-0.5" throughout southwest Pennsylvania, with a bullseye of .5-.75" in eastern Westmoreland - all of which falls as snow. Would probably support a 3-5" snowfall areawide, with some 6 or 7" lollipops in the higher elevations east of the city. Still snowing lightly areawide at Hour 84 as well, per the simulated radar.

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9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Well, the NAM was also the first one almost from 84 hours out to latch on to the dry slot with the MLK storm, so who knows?

Yeah I mean there's about a negative 1 trillion percent chance that we bullseye, but we've seen these strong coastals do some weird things. 2016 NAM was the furthest west and even though it fringed us hard it still got precip further west than any other model. Juno literally was gonna be a blizzard in NYC and once again the NAM said nope going east and and it did exactly that. It almost seems like the NAM does well with strong systems even if it's wrong 99.9999% of the time. That's what makes weather fascinating, mother nature does what it wants sometimes.

 

It wasn't 2016 I'm not sure what year it was.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Is Friday still looking good?  Some models didn't seem to look too good.

That northern piece of energy seems to have shifted south/moved quicker to consolidate with the dominant low off the coast so yes it has gone in the tank. 

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41 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Dropped 6 degrees in the last hour.  Down to 3.  Looks like a good chance of below 0 again.

PIT recorded a 5-min obs of 0 in the past hour before jumping back up to 5, so today will officially have a low of at least 0.

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