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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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19 minutes ago, TimB said:

Euro continues to point to one of the worst features of our climo: it can be anomalously cold before and after a storm, but the storm itself is a rainy torch.

The Euro is slamming a weak storm into a bunch of HP. That's not gonna happen. EPS is colder too compared to the OP. 

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I don't love the trough alignment for the system next Friday.  The longwave pattern screams cutter to me.  Ridge too far west off the pacific coast.  Not that it can't change, but for now that would be the concern if you're still looking for snow.  The Euro and Canadian take a slightly different tact in not intensifying the central LP as deeply and it basically skirts a boundary nearby.  Seems much less likely than a cutter.

That said, the pattern looks a bit more conducive coming into March.  Pretty similar look to January.  The only issue is that's basically fantasy land.

Long-term, who knows.  OP GFS wants to sink the PNA and flood us with warmth, but a fairly strong -EPO may assist in continuing to push cold air down into the CONUS.

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6 minutes ago, TimB said:

Set to completely obliterate our daily rainfall record, previously 0.82” and now pushing 1.5” at PIT. Should be a top 10 wettest February day on record.

Tell me about it, trying to siphon some water off the pool cover, still a chunk of ice about 5-6 inches thick on the one side. I was able to get under it and remove God knows how many gallons of water. 

Entire back yard is like quick sand.. 

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Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Tell me about it, trying to siphon some water off the pool cover, still a chunk of ice about 5-6 inches thick on the one side. I was able to get under it and remove God knows how many gallons of water. 

Entire back yard is like quick sand.. 

That’s the other thing I hate about our recent weather, is how often we get these big precip dumps.

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1 minute ago, PghPirates27 said:

Maybe this goes in the banter thread but how come we get huge rain events in Feb but when it’s cold enough for snow we get the dry slot? I’m at 3.14” for the month in rain. 

It’s easy to get a lot of precip when the dewpoint is 53. But it can’t snow when the dewpoint is 53.

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PIT is up to 57 with wind still screaming out of the SSW. It’ll be interesting to see what goes in the books for tomorrow’s high.

Edit: just like that, we are going to have our first official 60 degree reading of 2022 at PIT as of 10:30. From 54 to 60 in a half hour.

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Haven’t looked at models yet but going to guess guidance trended badly/torchy on next week’s system based on a quick glance at the iPhone weather app?

Oh well, can still enjoy whatever we get today/tomorrow, even if it’s not much.

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10 minutes ago, TimB said:

Haven’t looked at models yet but going to guess guidance trended badly/torchy on next week’s system based on a quick glance at the iPhone weather app?

Oh well, can still enjoy whatever we get today/tomorrow, even if it’s not much.

A nice little burst of snow dropped about 1/4 inch of fluffy snow. Probably the same thing tomorrow morning. Next weeks system seems to be holding true. With it being a week away a southern shift would be nice. 

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10 hours ago, TimB said:

That’s the other thing I hate about our recent weather, is how often we get these big precip dumps.

I feel like it's actually been quite a while since we had big totals like the two recent ones.  After 2018 and 2019, 2020-2021 were rather benign with heavy rains.

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6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I feel like it's actually been quite a while since we had big totals like the two recent ones.  After 2018 and 2019, 2020-2021 were rather benign with heavy rains.

2021 had the remnants of Ida but that doesn’t really count. What I am thinking of in 2021 is the second rainiest March day in Pittsburgh’s history (2.19” on 3/18).

Yesterday’s 1.6” was 7th all time for Feb.

It’s these garden variety rainy days that end up being historic that stick in my mind.

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9 hours ago, TimB said:

PIT is up to 57 with wind still screaming out of the SSW. It’ll be interesting to see what goes in the books for tomorrow’s high.

Edit: just like that, we are going to have our first official 60 degree reading of 2022 at PIT as of 10:30. From 54 to 60 in a half hour.

Today’s high at PIT looks like it’ll be the 35 recorded at midnight. AGC’s high for today will be 59. Quirks of frontal timing.

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43 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm excited about these squalls tomorrow. Hopefully they can produce white out conditions and dare I say thundersnow

NWS is particularly pessimistic about that chance. They’re carrying a 20% chance of precip.

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