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Potent pattern for part TWO being an impact event NYC subforum Thanksgiving weekend: Fri-Sun 11/26-28.


wdrag
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25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs hits sne hard 

Think that's going to be the theme going forward with this one unfortunately.

Miller B's usually develop too late for the NYC area. Most likely a Connecticut River on east for the highest impact.

Really wish I wasn't visiting family in NJ until Tuesday :thumbsdown:

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10 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Think that's going to be the theme going forward with this one unfortunately.

Miller B's usually develop too late for the NYC area. Most likely a Connecticut River on east for the highest impact.

Really wish I wasn't visiting family in NJ until Tuesday :thumbsdown:

NYC does okay with Miller B's but nothing like SNE

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC does okay with Miller B's but nothing like SNE

The one on 2/1 was just fine for NYC. 17” in Central Park and rain in Boston. But generally yes you want to be further NE for best chances. Any blocking we can have would be great so the storm slows down. 

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11 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Think that's going to be the theme going forward with this one unfortunately.

Miller B's usually develop too late for the NYC area. Most likely a Connecticut River on east for the highest impact.

Really wish I wasn't visiting family in NJ until Tuesday :thumbsdown:

 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC does okay with Miller B's but nothing like SNE

The NYC metro usually does pretty well in most Miller B's. If you live from Philly on north you usually get at least a few inches of snow with areas from the Monmouth/Mercer County line in NJ on northeast doing the best with highest snow totals.  

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52 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

The NYC metro usually does pretty well in most Miller B's. If you live from Philly on north you usually get at least a few inches of snow with areas from the Monmouth/Mercer County line in NJ on northeast doing the best with highest snow totals.  

Yes, NYC usually does get something but it's just that, something. They always seem to be late/delayed in developing and if there is a fast flow, which has really been prevalent in recent times, SNE is where you want to be.

Kind of hard to really get pumped up for them when Central Park gets 3" and Boston gets 12"-18" but yeah NYC usually doesn't end up with 0.

DC-Philly is exactly not where you want to be with Miller B's. They're snow climo is the worst for cold weather cities and only getting worse.

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I quickly looks at 12z EPS-NAEFS and 18z/24 GEFS.  Most of the development looks a little late and 850 LOW still n of our latitude.  To me, the 18z/24 GEFS total positive snow depth change looks about as good as it can get in our area and it won't surprise me if its a little less.  

I95 itself T to maybe spotty 1/2"?? but my guess is roads wet.  

I84: small accums, especially elevations with heaviest CT. Just my early guess.  

Ensembles dont have much qpf so I kind of think I need to be conservative and just hope nw tip NJ gets an inch or 2??  As we draw closer and it becomes clearer we can do better, then we can enjoy. Just don't want to be too optimistic about snow I95. 

At least this pattern gives us an opportunity for something small...I'd like to see it realized near I95 northwestward.

and 

let's not forget Friday wind potential, late in the day when the coldest part of the trough is overhead w NW 850 winds increasing to around 45-50kt. How deep the transfer, not quite sure yet. 

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Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

The first of the season for the interior northwest of I-95- A 'widespread' little bit of snow. 
 
Starting with the Poconos where snow cover has already occurred earlier this month. Snow showers Friday with a possible spotty up to 1". Those higher elevations may see chilling gusts near 50 MPH Frday afternoon or evening.
 
The more widespread periodic snowfall will occur Sunday, tapering off to a few flurries Monday morning. Amounts should range from a Trace (NYC) to maybe 1/2" I-80 to I-78, mainly Sunday 5AM-Noon. But from just north of I-80 through the entire I-84 corridor, 1-2" should fall by sunrise Monday: isolated 3-4" 'possible' highest terrain. It begins Sunday morning and may continue periodically into daybreak Monday. Untreated surfaces will become slippery at times.  Thankful for this little touch of winter coming to part of our area.  Walt 634A/25
 
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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC will see the first snowflakes of the season on Sunday  night.

Maybe even Sunday morning 9AM?  Not impossible to have a touch of white on cars/grass there in the city and parts of LI. Hope it works out. Kind of a nice start to the winter if it comes to pass. 

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3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Maybe even Sunday morning 9AM?  Not impossible to have a touch of white on cars/grass there in the city and parts of LI. Hope it works out. Kind of a nice start to the winter if it comes to pass. 

Anything this early is a gift

Happy Thanksgiving  Walt :)

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Also, fwiw, will change thread headline to first widespread (minor) snow of the winter, IF future modeling holds. 

 

Wind obs over 45 MPH (any damage) can go into this thread as is, since at this time, I don't think that aspect the weekend will be heavily loaded.  

I probably will start an OBS thread for the first widespread snowfall of the season, Saturday evening, for the Sunday event,,, presuming it still looks similar.  Just need to wait it out and be 95% certain.

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The GFS has a pretty fast mover. Looks like this will be a less amplified system than models were showing a few days ago. Probably related to the models continuing to underestimate the strength of the Pacific Jet. But we’ll take any snow we can get this early in the season.

New run faster Pacific Jet and flatter +PNA ridge

81364FC4-3A79-4DBF-9B62-D35A32E06D1F.thumb.png.7ef44354ce51609e683e8f59c91e78ca.png
 

Old run

 

19165FB6-00E2-4A19-AC93-78D1CD9FAC52.thumb.png.6ec7a3a2b0d542d01c0fc32b3992ce49.png

 

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Agreed--we'll take anything we can get.  

My confidence decreases next week as block goes away.  

I checked the 06z EC and it snows NYC, exceedingly minor but it snows.  Its 06z ensembles continue developments off Cape Cod. I agree on fast mover and this is over by dawn Monday, whatever it is.  I leave you with 06z/25 GEFS prob for>1" snow... and a first look at MPAS which has microphysics embedded. Not sure how constructive this is (especially the last graphic), but overall... nw of I95 looks for a whitening and if we can get qpf prior to Noon Sunday, I can see the same to NYC doorstep to CP (cars/grass). Use the graphics with care...  and ensure perspective.  

Screen Shot 2021-11-25 at 8.35.51 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-11-25 at 8.34.33 AM.png

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like the 6z Euro started a trend. The GFS, ICON, Ukie and CMC all want nothing to do with it now either 

Easy setup to fall apart if the trough becomes more progressive/less amped. You want the strong vort to close off south of you-weaker/progressive no dice. As Bluewave showed, the PAC Jet might be having its say. 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice mood flakes on Nam and Rgem 

ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

prateptype.us_ne.png

Instead of sunday night into monday, it's looking as if sunday morning is our best shot to see a little accumulating snow. 12z RGEM gives a lot of the area a coating to an inch of snow sunday morning. Hopefully that will work out.

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So we will see what happens... a couple of graphics for the next 3 days. Click each for detail, if interested and use the legend for your area of interest.   The bottom graphic is the 8 member SPC HREF ensemble for today-tonight. Elevation snow or flurries anticipated for the I84 high terrain today...all dependent on your location. 

Screen Shot 2021-11-26 at 6.51.38 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-11-26 at 6.55.26 AM.png

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