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OBS-Nowcast: Periods of showers, some heavy Midnight-6PM Friday 11/12/21 with iso SVR possible. Can use this thread to add any Thunder-hail-gust 45 MPH that may occur Sat afternoon.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Some photos from today’s severe thunderstorms.

Rjay
Rjay

Levittown   

JerseyWx
JerseyWx

Had TREMENDOUS downpours between 1:10 and 1:35.  Also had very good sized hail.  This picture was an hour after the storm ended.  That's bigger than a pea if you can't tell.  

Posted Images

uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted 
START LOCATION...CHESHIRE, NEW HAVEN COUNTY, CT
END LOCATION...CHESHIRE, NEW HAVEN COUNTY, CT
DATE...NOVEMBER 13, 2021
ESTIMATED TIME...3:30 PM to 3:34 PM
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...75 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...3.5 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...41.48751, -72.9355
ENDING LAT/LON...41.51865, -72.88036
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

 

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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted 
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
828 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 11/13/2021 TORNADO EVENT...

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN SHIRLEY TO MANORVILLE, NY...

OVERVIEW...A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF1 TORNADO 
IN SHIRLEY, NY. A TORNADO LIKELY TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTHWEST
OF FRANCINE PLACE AND MASTIC BLVD, TRAVELLING EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE LONG 
ISLAND RAILROAD TRACKS AND ADJACENT BACKYARDS. NUMEROUS OAK, MAPLE AND PINE 
TREES WERE UPROOTED AND LAYING IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. SEVERAL TREES WERE
ALSO SNAPPED AT THE TRUNK OR HAD LARGE BRANCHES SHEARED OFF ALONG
THIS PATH. IN ADDITION, MINOR ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL
HOUSES, AS WELL AS LEAF SPLATTER ON SOUTH AND EAST SIDES. THE DAMAGE SWATH AT 
THIS POINT WAS ONLY ABOUT 25 YARDS WIDE. THE TORNADO THEN HOOKED NORTHEAST OVER
THE LIDL SUPERMARKET (SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE SHOPPING CENTER COMPLEX), 
FLIPPING OVER A 5 TON AIR HANDLER UNIT ON THE ROOF, BEFORE TEARING OFF THE 
PARAPET AND COLLAPSING THE COVERED WALKWAY OF THE CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL ON 
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE SHOPPING CENTER. DAMAGE PATH REMAINED ABOUT 25 YARDS,
BUT DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF1 WINDS OF 95 TO 105 MPH.

PUBLIC VIDEO SHOWED THE APPARENT TORNADIC CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE INTERSECTION OF WILLIAM FLOYD PARKWAY AND MONTAUK HIGHWAY TOWARDS THE APPLEBEES
SHOPPING CENTER, WITH DEBRIS BEING THROWN IN ONE DIRECTION THEN ANOTHER. SIDING 
AND SHINGLES FROM THE CHIPOTLE WERE THROWN NORTHEAST ABOUT 250 YARDS ACROSS THIS 
INTERSECTION AND INTO THE APPLEBEES SHOPPING CENTER. OTHER THAN THE DEBRIS, SOME 
SMALL TREES WERE UPROOTED IN THE PARKING LOT AND LAYING TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
FLASHING WAS RIPPED OFF THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE APPLESBEES AND UNOCCUPIED 
ADJACENT RETAIL STORE. THE TORNADIC CIRCULATION MAY HAVE BRIEFLY LIFTED AT THIS 
POINT, WITH ABOUT A 50 YD SWATH OF 65 TO 75 MPH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS THIS
SHOPPING CENTER.

THE TORNADIC CIRCULATION THEN TOUCHED DOWN ONCE AGAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 
APPLEBEES SHOPPING CENTER. LIFTING THE ENTIRE ROOF OFF A 2 STORY MULTI FAMILY 
RESIDENCE ON THE CORNER OF GRAND AVENUE AND MCGRAW STREET. THE ROOF WAS TOSSED 
AS FAR AS 150 YARDS TO THE NORTH, INTO THE BACKYARD OF NEIGHBORING HOUSES TO THE 
NORTH ON GRAND AVENUE. ONE SECTION OF THIS ROOF, ACTUALLY IMPALED ITSELF INTO THE 
SIDE OF THE NEIGHBORING HOUSE TO THE NORTH, AND MADE SUCH A STRONG IMPACT THAT IT
SKEWED THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THAT HOUSE. BASED ON THE EXTENT OF STRUCTURAL 
DAMAGE TO THESE HOUSES, AND ADJACENT 50 YD SWATH OF UPROOTED, SNAPPED OR SHEARED 
LARGE TREES, THIS DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF1 WINDS OF AROUND 110 MPH. THE 
TORNADO STRENGTH LIKELY PEAKED AT THIS POINT. THE ENTIRETY OF THE EF1 TORNADIC 
DAMAGE PATH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF MONTAUK HIGHWAY WAS AROUND 1/4 MILE.

THE TORNADO WOULD THEN MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS SUNRISE HIGHWAY, SKIPPING ITS WAY 
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 4 1/2 MILES, WITH AREAS OF DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH AN EF0. ON 
ITS PATH IT CONTINUED NORTHEAST THROUGH BROOKHAVEN CALABRO AIRPORT, FLIPPING OVER 
OR SHIFTING A FEW SMALL SINGLE ENGINE PLANES. THEREAFTER IT MOVED NORTHEAST THROUGH 
PANCHO DRIVE, TITMUS DRIVE, ABBOT AVE, AND BURNEY BLVD JUST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST 
OF THE AIRPORT. SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED, TRUNKS SNAPPED OR BRANCHES SHEARED
IN AN APPROXIMATElY 50 YD PATH, WITH ACCOMPANYING MINOR ROOF, SIDING AND FENCING DAMAGE
IN THIS AREA. THE TORNADO LIKELY SKIPPED NORTH TO THE INTERSECTION OF BARNES ROADS AND
MORICHES-MIDDLE ISLAND ROAD WITH A SMALL AREA OF ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE, BEFORE 
MAKING A FINAL NEARLY MILE LONG AND 50 YD WIDE TORNADO DAMAGE PATH NORTHEAST ACROSS 
FORESTON CIRCLE, EAGLE LANE, NESTLEDOWN AVENUE, WADING RIVER ROAD, TUPELO STREET AND
THEN ACROSS TO THE INTERSECTION OF SILAS WOODS ROAD AND SOUTH STREET BEFORE FINALLY 
LIFTING. SEVERAL DOZEN LARGE HARD AND SOFT WOOD TREES WERE UPROOTED AND LAYING IN A
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION, AS COMPARED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION OF 
STORM MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION, NUMEROUS TREE TOPS WERE SHEARED AND TREE TRUNKS SNAPPED 
WITH MINOR ROOF, SIDING AND FENCING DAMAGE OBSERVED FOR NUMEROUS HOUSES ALONG THIS 
PATH. A LARGE CAMPER NORTH/SOUTH FACING CAMPER ON TUPELO DRIVE WAS ROLLED ONTO ITS 
SIDE. THE DESCRIBED 50 YD CONVERGENT TORNADIC DAMAGE PATTERN WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN
EF0 TORNADO WITH 85 MPH WINDS, AND WAS FLANKED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A 500 YD PATH OF
SCATTERED TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE AND MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE CONSISTENT 
WITH 65 TO 75 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. 

THE NWS WOULD LIKE TO THANK SUFFOLK COUNTY FIRE RESCUE AND EMERGENCY SERVICES, NEW YORK
STATE DIVISION OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND EMERGENCY SERVICES LONG ISLAND SECTOR, AND
NEW YORK STATE POLICE IN ASSISTING IN THE SURVEY AND HELPING FORMULATE THIS 
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT.

START LOCATION...Shirley, Suffolk County, NY
END LOCATION...Manorville, Suffolk County, NY
DATE...November 13, 2021
ESTIMATED TIME...3:42 PM TO 3:50 PM
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...110 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 yards 
PATH LENGTH...3.5 MILES 
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.798227, -72.871182
ENDING LAT/LON...40.853652, -72.810073
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, uofmiami said: 
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
828 PM EST Sun Nov 14 2021

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 11/13/2021 TORNADO EVENT...

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN SHIRLEY TO MANORVILLE, NY...

OVERVIEW...A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF1 TORNADO 
IN SHIRLEY, NY. A TORNADO LIKELY TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTHWEST
OF FRANCINE PLACE AND MASTIC BLVD, TRAVELLING EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE LONG 
ISLAND RAILROAD TRACKS AND ADJACENT BACKYARDS. NUMEROUS OAK, MAPLE AND PINE 
TREES WERE UPROOTED AND LAYING IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. SEVERAL TREES WERE
ALSO SNAPPED AT THE TRUNK OR HAD LARGE BRANCHES SHEARED OFF ALONG
THIS PATH. IN ADDITION, MINOR ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL
HOUSES, AS WELL AS LEAF SPLATTER ON SOUTH AND EAST SIDES. THE DAMAGE SWATH AT 
THIS POINT WAS ONLY ABOUT 25 YARDS WIDE. THE TORNADO THEN HOOKED NORTHEAST OVER
THE LIDL SUPERMARKET (SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE SHOPPING CENTER COMPLEX), 
FLIPPING OVER A 5 TON AIR HANDLER UNIT ON THE ROOF, BEFORE TEARING OFF THE 
PARAPET AND COLLAPSING THE COVERED WALKWAY OF THE CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL ON 
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE SHOPPING CENTER. DAMAGE PATH REMAINED ABOUT 25 YARDS,
BUT DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF1 WINDS OF 95 TO 105 MPH.

PUBLIC VIDEO SHOWED THE APPARENT TORNADIC CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE INTERSECTION OF WILLIAM FLOYD PARKWAY AND MONTAUK HIGHWAY TOWARDS THE APPLEBEES
SHOPPING CENTER, WITH DEBRIS BEING THROWN IN ONE DIRECTION THEN ANOTHER. SIDING 
AND SHINGLES FROM THE CHIPOTLE WERE THROWN NORTHEAST ABOUT 250 YARDS ACROSS THIS 
INTERSECTION AND INTO THE APPLEBEES SHOPPING CENTER. OTHER THAN THE DEBRIS, SOME 
SMALL TREES WERE UPROOTED IN THE PARKING LOT AND LAYING TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
FLASHING WAS RIPPED OFF THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE APPLESBEES AND UNOCCUPIED 
ADJACENT RETAIL STORE. THE TORNADIC CIRCULATION MAY HAVE BRIEFLY LIFTED AT THIS 
POINT, WITH ABOUT A 50 YD SWATH OF 65 TO 75 MPH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS THIS
SHOPPING CENTER.

THE TORNADIC CIRCULATION THEN TOUCHED DOWN ONCE AGAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 
APPLEBEES SHOPPING CENTER. LIFTING THE ENTIRE ROOF OFF A 2 STORY MULTI FAMILY 
RESIDENCE ON THE CORNER OF GRAND AVENUE AND MCGRAW STREET. THE ROOF WAS TOSSED 
AS FAR AS 150 YARDS TO THE NORTH, INTO THE BACKYARD OF NEIGHBORING HOUSES TO THE 
NORTH ON GRAND AVENUE. ONE SECTION OF THIS ROOF, ACTUALLY IMPALED ITSELF INTO THE 
SIDE OF THE NEIGHBORING HOUSE TO THE NORTH, AND MADE SUCH A STRONG IMPACT THAT IT
SKEWED THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THAT HOUSE. BASED ON THE EXTENT OF STRUCTURAL 
DAMAGE TO THESE HOUSES, AND ADJACENT 50 YD SWATH OF UPROOTED, SNAPPED OR SHEARED 
LARGE TREES, THIS DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF1 WINDS OF AROUND 110 MPH. THE 
TORNADO STRENGTH LIKELY PEAKED AT THIS POINT. THE ENTIRETY OF THE EF1 TORNADIC 
DAMAGE PATH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF MONTAUK HIGHWAY WAS AROUND 1/4 MILE.

THE TORNADO WOULD THEN MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS SUNRISE HIGHWAY, SKIPPING ITS WAY 
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 4 1/2 MILES, WITH AREAS OF DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH AN EF0. ON 
ITS PATH IT CONTINUED NORTHEAST THROUGH BROOKHAVEN CALABRO AIRPORT, FLIPPING OVER 
OR SHIFTING A FEW SMALL SINGLE ENGINE PLANES. THEREAFTER IT MOVED NORTHEAST THROUGH 
PANCHO DRIVE, TITMUS DRIVE, ABBOT AVE, AND BURNEY BLVD JUST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST 
OF THE AIRPORT. SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED, TRUNKS SNAPPED OR BRANCHES SHEARED
IN AN APPROXIMATElY 50 YD PATH, WITH ACCOMPANYING MINOR ROOF, SIDING AND FENCING DAMAGE
IN THIS AREA. THE TORNADO LIKELY SKIPPED NORTH TO THE INTERSECTION OF BARNES ROADS AND
MORICHES-MIDDLE ISLAND ROAD WITH A SMALL AREA OF ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE, BEFORE 
MAKING A FINAL NEARLY MILE LONG AND 50 YD WIDE TORNADO DAMAGE PATH NORTHEAST ACROSS 
FORESTON CIRCLE, EAGLE LANE, NESTLEDOWN AVENUE, WADING RIVER ROAD, TUPELO STREET AND
THEN ACROSS TO THE INTERSECTION OF SILAS WOODS ROAD AND SOUTH STREET BEFORE FINALLY 
LIFTING. SEVERAL DOZEN LARGE HARD AND SOFT WOOD TREES WERE UPROOTED AND LAYING IN A
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION, AS COMPARED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION OF 
STORM MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION, NUMEROUS TREE TOPS WERE SHEARED AND TREE TRUNKS SNAPPED 
WITH MINOR ROOF, SIDING AND FENCING DAMAGE OBSERVED FOR NUMEROUS HOUSES ALONG THIS 
PATH. A LARGE CAMPER NORTH/SOUTH FACING CAMPER ON TUPELO DRIVE WAS ROLLED ONTO ITS 
SIDE. THE DESCRIBED 50 YD CONVERGENT TORNADIC DAMAGE PATTERN WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN
EF0 TORNADO WITH 85 MPH WINDS, AND WAS FLANKED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A 500 YD PATH OF
SCATTERED TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE AND MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE CONSISTENT 
WITH 65 TO 75 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. 

THE NWS WOULD LIKE TO THANK SUFFOLK COUNTY FIRE RESCUE AND EMERGENCY SERVICES, NEW YORK
STATE DIVISION OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND EMERGENCY SERVICES LONG ISLAND SECTOR, AND
NEW YORK STATE POLICE IN ASSISTING IN THE SURVEY AND HELPING FORMULATE THIS 
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT.

START LOCATION...Shirley, Suffolk County, NY
END LOCATION...Manorville, Suffolk County, NY
DATE...November 13, 2021
ESTIMATED TIME...3:42 PM TO 3:50 PM
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...110 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 yards 
PATH LENGTH...3.5 MILES 
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.798227, -72.871182
ENDING LAT/LON...40.853652, -72.810073
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

 

Incredible

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 11/14/2021 at 8:37 AM, jconsor said:

Interesting regarding the Long Island tornadoes yesterday (note the tweet incorrectly says CT instead of NY).

The analogs and Enhanced Fujita  scale probabilities are based on the radar signature.
 

Note that only six of the 34 tornadoes observed on LI between 1950 and 2020 were F2, with no F3 ever observed.  Before yesterday, there has never been a Nov tornado observed on LI dating back to 1950:

See the following for historical tornado data/trends:
https://bronx.news12.com/are-tornadoes-becoming-more-common-on-long-island-41004515

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?eventType=(C)+Tornado&beginDate_mm=01&beginDate_dd=01&beginDate_yyyy=1950&endDate_mm=12&endDate_dd=31&endDate_yyyy=2020&county=NASSAU%3A59&county=SUFFOLK%3A103&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort=DT&submitbutton=Search&statefips=36%2CNEW+YORK

 

 

how does one compare the old F scale to the new EF scale?

For example in 1998 on Labor Day an F2 tornado hit Lynbrook....what would that be rated on the EF scale?  And why make a new scale, instead of adjusting the wind speeds on the old scale?  It makes things much more confusing.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 11/14/2021 at 9:00 AM, jconsor said:

This event in Nov last year was a squall line with embedded microbursts (no confirmed tornadoes), but reflects the same pattern you mentioned:

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/weather/2020/11/20/a-history-of-late-season-tornadoes-in-new-york-city
https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20201115

Another one from late Oct 2019 with very widespread reports of severe wind gusts in the mid-Atlantic/NE along a squall line, along with several tornadoes:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/01/halloween-storms-packed-punch-across-region/

How does this compare to the November 1989 severe weather outbreak? I thought we had tornadoes then too?

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 11/14/2021 at 6:20 PM, wdrag said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1989_tornado_outbreak

 

Check out the above:  IF that's what we recorded in Nov 1989 (without doppler/without social media)...  It happens... just more attention now with increased voracious media coverage through social media. 

that was an amazing outbreak- I still remember it!

I'm sure there were tornadoes on Long Island in November 1989 but we just didn't record them as well as we do now.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 11/13/2021 at 4:17 PM, bluewave said:

This was the first time that I saw asperatus  clouds ahead of severe storms on Long Island.

 

 

whats the difference between asperatus and mammatus? I thought mammatus were tornado clouds?  I remember seeing them in November 1989......

we were at high school and were told to go outside onto the football field and I saw clouds that hung down like sacs from the sky, they looked like they were spinning too...multiple spinning vortices in the sky and the wind was blowing so hard we could barely open the door

 

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 11/14/2021 at 8:37 AM, jconsor said:

Interesting regarding the Long Island tornadoes yesterday (note the tweet incorrectly says CT instead of NY).

The analogs and Enhanced Fujita  scale probabilities are based on the radar signature.
 

Note that only six of the 34 tornadoes observed on LI between 1950 and 2020 were F2, with no F3 ever observed.  Before yesterday, there has never been a Nov tornado observed on LI dating back to 1950:

See the following for historical tornado data/trends:
https://bronx.news12.com/are-tornadoes-becoming-more-common-on-long-island-41004515

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?eventType=(C)+Tornado&beginDate_mm=01&beginDate_dd=01&beginDate_yyyy=1950&endDate_mm=12&endDate_dd=31&endDate_yyyy=2020&county=NASSAU%3A59&county=SUFFOLK%3A103&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort=DT&submitbutton=Search&statefips=36%2CNEW+YORK

 

 

Shocked that Shirley tornado wasn't at least an EF2.

Was it stronger than the others because two tornadoes combined to produce that one?

And are EF2 and F2 tornadoes equivalent....in other words was the 1998 Labor Day Lynbrook F2 tornado about as strong as an EF2 tornado would be today?


 

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Which outbreak? This was the worst tornado outbreak on record for the island 

November 1989 just in terms of severe weather damage.

Here's what I remember from having a fire drill that day and going outside

We went out into the football field, but had huge problems getting the doors open because the winds were pushing so hard against it.

Got outside and saw these strange green clouds hanging from the sky in weird shapes, festoons and pointy triangular shapes with the vertices of the triangles pointed downward, many of them spinning.

First time I ever saw that.  And it was like that all afternoon and most of the leaves on the trees came down on that day.  The earliest I've ever seen them come down.

I should say the Labor Day 1998 outbreak is right up there too- we had a F2 tornado hit Lynbrook and lots of damage and destruction around!

 

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