OBS-Nowcast: Periods of showers, some heavy Midnight-6PM Friday 11/12/21 with iso SVR possible. Can use this thread to add any Thunder-hail-gust 45 MPH that may occur Sat afternoon.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Part doppler related, part greater comfort issuing.  

And these unusually potent late fall severe weather patterns in recent years.

 

https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-10-04-pennsylvania-record-october-tornado-outbreak

Tuesday's swarm of tornadoes in parts of the Northeast set an October record in Pennsylvania. It was the state's most tornadic day in over 20 years.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/24/rare-late-october-tornado-outbreak-hit-massachusetts-rhode-island-tuesday/

 

October 24, 2018

 

 

Cape Cod is a fun summertime vacation destination, and the weather is usually turning increasingly wintry this time of year. Tuesday, the Cape looked more like Oklahoma than New England as several tornadoes tore through Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

At least three tornadoes seem likely to have touched down. It’s a region that doesn’t see many twisters any time of year, and this is as late as they come in Southern New England.

[wdrag]

Warming cycle of recent years-- and then yesterday, I think SST positive anomaly may have added a little juice-energy. Attached this mornings analysis. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Warming cycle of recent years-- and then yesterday, I think SST positive anomaly may have added a little juice-energy. Attached this mornings analysis. 

Yeah, the warmest SSTs for the period of record during this time of year.

https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

 

 

[jconsor]

Several reports of a possible tornado in coastal central and eastern CT as well:
 

 

[jconsor]

Interesting regarding the Long Island tornadoes yesterday (note the tweet incorrectly says CT instead of NY).

The analogs and Enhanced Fujita  scale probabilities are based on the radar signature.
 

Note that only six of the 34 tornadoes observed on LI between 1950 and 2020 were F2, with no F3 ever observed.  Before yesterday, there has never been a Nov tornado observed on LI dating back to 1950:

See the following for historical tornado data/trends:
https://bronx.news12.com/are-tornadoes-becoming-more-common-on-long-island-41004515

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?eventType=(C)+Tornado&beginDate_mm=01&beginDate_dd=01&beginDate_yyyy=1950&endDate_mm=12&endDate_dd=31&endDate_yyyy=2020&county=NASSAU%3A59&county=SUFFOLK%3A103&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort=DT&submitbutton=Search&statefips=36%2CNEW+YORK

 

 

[jconsor]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

And these unusually potent late fall severe weather patterns in recent years.

 

https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-10-04-pennsylvania-record-october-tornado-outbreak

Tuesday's swarm of tornadoes in parts of the Northeast set an October record in Pennsylvania. It was the state's most tornadic day in over 20 years.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/24/rare-late-october-tornado-outbreak-hit-massachusetts-rhode-island-tuesday/

 

October 24, 2018

 

 

Cape Cod is a fun summertime vacation destination, and the weather is usually turning increasingly wintry this time of year. Tuesday, the Cape looked more like Oklahoma than New England as several tornadoes tore through Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

At least three tornadoes seem likely to have touched down. It’s a region that doesn’t see many twisters any time of year, and this is as late as they come in Southern New England.

This event in Nov last year was a squall line with embedded microbursts (no confirmed tornadoes), but reflects the same pattern you mentioned:

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/weather/2020/11/20/a-history-of-late-season-tornadoes-in-new-york-city
https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20201115

Another one from late Oct 2019 with very widespread reports of severe wind gusts in the mid-Atlantic/NE along a squall line, along with several tornadoes:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/01/halloween-storms-packed-punch-across-region/

[jconsor]

 

[psv88]

Lots of great photos and videos in here

https://patch.com/new-york/fivetowns/storm-rocks-long-island-12k-without-power-possible-tornado

[Rjay]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
920 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2021

...STORM DAMAGE SURVEYS TODAY IN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN 
CONNECTICUT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONDUCT STORM DAMAGE SURVEYS
TODAY NEAR MASTIC AND SHIRLEY IN SUFFOLK COUNTY NEW YORK, ALSO IN
STONINGTON, OLD LYME, BRANFORD, AND CHESHIRE IN SOUTHERN 
CONNECTICUT. THESE SURVEYS ARE IN RELATION TO THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH ON SATURDAY. 

FINAL ASSESSMENTS WILL BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA ADDITIONAL
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ALSO WORK WITH EMERGENCY 
MANAGERS FROM NASSAU COUNTY TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR DAMAGE SURVEYS 
THERE. 

THE STORM SURVEY INFORMATION WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON OUR
WEBSITE AT HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/NYC

 

[Rjay]

They're missing quite a few areas in Suffolk.  Manorville, Great River, Oakdale and a a few others should be looked at.  

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[Parsley]

42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

They're missing quite a few areas in Suffolk.  Manorville, Great River, Oakdale and a a few others should be looked at.  

From my sister, south of Montauk Highway - East Islip to Oakdale

[Parsley]

A few more….

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, jconsor said:

 

We can probably benefit from normalizing.in the historic database.

Tor Emergency first used 1999.  

Reports_ Concerted effort by NWS offices to verify warnings using all sorts of data sources, with social media contributions in recent years likely adding to the recent counts.

TOR eval techniques improved, including use of building construction, and Doppler data to the strength values. 

Perspective-normalized would help. 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

Missed my parent's home by 1 mile. About 1.5 miles from my old apartment. 

[psv88]

49 minutes ago, Parsley said:

A few more….

What’s up brother! Hope all is well with you and your family 

[psv88]

upton confirmed the twister in Nassau. Woodmere to Levittown. EF 0

[uofmiami]

START LOCATION...EAST ISLIP, SUFFOLK COUNTY, NY
END LOCATION...OAKDALE, SUFFOLK COUNTY, NY
DATE...NOVEMBER 13, 2021
ESTIMATED TIME...3:20 PM TO 3:22 PM
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS 
PATH LENGTH...900 YARDS 
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.717779, -73.197229
ENDING LAT/LON...40.723105, -73.190136
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

 

[Parsley]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

What’s up brother! Hope all is well with you and your family 

Hey buddy, as is well here. Typical boring weather in Pennsyltucky while Long Island scores severe events and upcoming snowstorms. 

[wdrag]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1989_tornado_outbreak

 

Check out the above:  IF that's what we recorded in Nov 1989 (without doppler/without social media)...  It happens... just more attention now with increased voracious media coverage through social media. 

[Parsley]

10 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

START LOCATION...EAST ISLIP, SUFFOLK COUNTY, NY
END LOCATION...OAKDALE, SUFFOLK COUNTY, NY
DATE...NOVEMBER 13, 2021
ESTIMATED TIME...3:20 PM TO 3:22 PM
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS 
PATH LENGTH...900 YARDS 
BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.717779, -73.197229
ENDING LAT/LON...40.723105, -73.190136
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

 

Wow. Exactly where she was getting photos and video today. (Elementary school In the background) 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1989_tornado_outbreak

 

Check out the above:  IF that's what we recorded in Nov 1989 (without doppler/without social media)...  It happens... just more attention now with increased voracious media coverage through social media. 

Disagree. It’s not like we have not had cameras and video cameras for the past 30 years…

[psv88]

So after the Shirley twister is confirmed, that will be 3 twisters. 

[Rjay]

 

[Rjay]

 

[Rjay]

 

[Rjay]

 

[Rjay]

 

[IrishRob17]

45 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Disagree. It’s not like we have not had cameras and video cameras for the past 30 years…

Disagree, everyone didn’t carry a camera/video camera in their pocket 30 years ago. 

[L.I.Pete]

Looking southwest on Nicolls Rd. and then northwest from the Ronkonkoma train station just as the tornado warning started, a couple of minutes before the hail.