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Severe Weather October 10th-12th 2021


BrandonC_TX
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High res models handled this event well. SPC seemed to go rather aggressive, despite messy CAM solutions and deep shear vectors nearly parallel to the cold front and dryline. Maybe Oklahoma bias? 

The models did handle the triple point semi-discrete supercell well. 

Storm chasing was a pain today as everyone and their neighbor’s uncle was out. I’m glad it busted, for safety sake. OKC dodges another one. 

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Tornado Warning
OKC111-143-145-110330-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0029.211011T0305Z-211011T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1005 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Wagoner County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Northwestern Okmulgee County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Southeastern Tulsa County in northeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 1005 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located over Beggs, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Bixby...                          Glenpool...
  Beggs...                          Stonebluff...
  Liberty...                        Hectorville...
  Leonard...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9606 3586 9603 3590 9603 3596 9598
      3590 9569 3569 9605 3573 9617
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 227DEG 34KT 3574 9607

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Tornado Warning
TXC139-217-251-110330-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0021.211011T0303Z-211011T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1003 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Johnson County in north central Texas...
  North central Hill County in central Texas...
  Central Ellis County in north central Texas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 1002 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Grandview, or 14 miles southeast of
  Alvarado, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Maypearl around 1010 PM CDT.
  Italy around 1015 PM CDT.
  Ennis, Palmer and Bardwell around 1030 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Garrett and Pecan Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3211 9713 3228 9721 3254 9666 3229 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 245DEG 44KT 3223 9709

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Godwin
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This is a 12z HRRR run for tomorrow night. The afternoon-evening SBCAPE should be a narrow area of possibly 500 J/kg to 1500 J/kg in western Kansas and down into the Texas Panhandle. Models show convective development. I wonder if the deep layer shear could be too powerful for supercells, given the limited CAPE. As in, the shear could be so great it disrupts updrafts.

23mfDOM.jpg

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Recent HRRR runs show a sharp dryline bulge forming in far southwestern Oklahoma this afternoon with convective initiation around 23z. Of course these solutions feature a lone supercell tracking toward OKC after dark. Let’s not do that again. 

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