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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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  • 3 weeks later...
11 hours ago, JoMo said:

Models trying to go with a colder look the first week of Nov. Maybe more troughing in the central/eastern US.

Jomo, I dont really want to see it get too cold this early. I would rather see it happen at end of November, if it happens. Try to salvage a winter month before laniña kicks in, which this one is a second year niña. They can go either way. A -epo/wpo would be a good thing this winter.

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Nice, cold, rainy fall day today. Even colder air is on the way next week though. Springfield even mentioned this:

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If some lingering showers remain across the region Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning, some wet snow flakes may mix in with the rain but no accumulations are expected.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

The 12z Euro has a winter storm in the area for Thanksgiving and Black Friday and even into Saturday. The models continue to shift around during that time period and further changes in the solutions will probably occur. What a crazy solution though. 17.8" of snow in Joplin with 25" just off to the NE. 17.7" in Tulsa, and even 8.2" in NW AR. Very low chance any of this happens though. 

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14 minutes ago, JoMo said:

The 12z Euro has a winter storm in the area for Thanksgiving and Black Friday and even into Saturday. The models continue to shift around during that time period and further changes in the solutions will probably occur. What a crazy solution though. 17.8" of snow in Joplin with 25" just off to the NE. 17.7" in Tulsa, and even 8.2" in NW AR. Very low chance any of this happens though. 

Canadian try’s to do something but it’s a little further north and not as impressive. 

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1 hour ago, Doramo said:

Although there is little chance of a huge snow event happening next week , just the mention stirred up my snow excitement:D

Did you feel the Earthquake? And yeah, it's still very much in the air about next week, everything would have to line up pretty well for it to happen.

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The models continue to change pretty significantly from run to run when it comes to the time period around Thanksgiving. The most surprising being how much the 00z Euro changed from the 12z Euro today. It all hinges on what happens with some energy coming out of the SW US and if/how it interacts with some energy moving in from the north/northwest. The models are having trouble deciding on what to do and that has a big impact on the weather expected from Thanksgiving into next weekend. 

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