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Hurricane Nicholas


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Well, little Nicholas was the hurricane that barely could, a 'cane for just a few hours before making landfall WSW of Sargent Beach, TX.

Minimal effects so far, but Nicholas may bring some very significant rainfall totals to the Houston area well into Louisiana, none of which need it. [I'm glad to have dodged a wet windy bullet this time, as Nic just grazed my homeport]

 

"000 WTNT34 KNHC 140553 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...

NICHOLAS MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAIN, HIGH WINDS AND DANGEROUS SURGE ONGOING... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.8N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS --------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from Port Aransas, Texas to Port O'Connor, Texas including Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor Texas to Sabine Pass * Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Freeport Texas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Freeport to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to Port O'Connor * North of Freeport to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Hurricane Nicholas made landfall near 1230 AM CDT (0530 UTC) on eastern part of the Matagorda Peninsula, about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Sargent Beach, Texas. At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicholas was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 95.7 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a slower motion by late today and an even slower eastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is expected to move slowly over southeastern Texas today and tonight, and over southwestern Louisiana on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as Nicholas moves over land. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A station at San Luis Pass, Texas recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) gusting to 67 mph (107 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches) based on reconnaissance dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across the upper Texas coastal areas into Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast into far southwestern Louisiana. Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts near 10 inches are expected into Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding. The potential for minor to isolated major river flooding exists across the entire region especially in smaller river basins and urban areas. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX...3-5 ft Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...1-3 ft Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...1-3 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area across the central and upper Texas coasts through this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area for the next few hours. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$ Forecaster Blake"

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5 hours ago, Tezeta said:

Nobody tracks these to watch fizzling TS landfall. You’re basically concern trolling. 

 

5 hours ago, Tezeta said:

I’m not here to fight. I am just here to advocate for landfalls with complete eyewalls and good chaser footage. Nobody needs harmed and I hope only rich people’s beach houses and fossil fuel infrastructure gets wiped out. 

You obviously have never been to the Middle or Upper Texas Coast if you think it is filled with 'rich peoples beach houses'. As for the fossil fuel infrastructure - are you out of your bloody mind? How much of an ecological disaster would unfold if we had those facilities taken out? The amount of chemicals spilled would be absolutely insane. I mean, they do a good enough job as it is with spilling something every other week.

As for talking down Windspeed, who is a very long-time and knowledgeable poster, I would suggest you take that attitude and shove it back up to the Northeast weenie section. 

_______________________________

As for Nicholas, the wind element sure certainly seemed to overperform. Wind gusts were over 60 MPH observed at several sites in Houston with over 350,000 customers without power. Pretty impressive wind field for what I expected would be a relatively localized and limit wind threat. While the wind (and in some cases, surge) were impressive, the flooding threat has not. Looks like the HRRR was onto something when it kept a majority of the heavy rains off the Texas coast. Louisiana? Well, they may be in for another world of hurt in the flooding department. 

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Per KPRC story, only gas station in the area (Matagorda) w/ electricity, and they have some of their own issues.  Big airport nearby, 28 G38, breezy here with a bit of rain, wind did some dead frond trimming on the palm tree, which isn't a bad thing, but as close as the Heights, inside I-610 loop, some power outages.  I see no obvious damage in my neighborhood.

StanleysGas.PNG

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4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Per KPRC story, only gas station in the area (Matagorda) w/ electricity, and they have some of their own issues.  Big airport nearby, 28 G38, breezy here with a bit of rain, wind did some dead frond trimming on the palm tree, which isn't a bad thing, but as close as the Heights, inside I-610 loop, some power outages.  I see no obvious damage in my neighborhood.

StanleysGas.PNG

Wow that's the kind of failure that should never happen!  Especially in that (wind) zone.  Gotta love the durability of LED lighting however.  If that was HID (canopy) and FL (signage) it would be out.

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Nicholas came to be. Surprise? Yes and no. I was too busy working to follow this one. (I hate when that happens!)

Just looking at YouTube videos. Surfside Beach in TX took a hit, some real damage and flood prone roads are beat up and washed out with a storm surge of a few feet. Looks like most homes are on stilts and most survived OK, but a few that are older or cheated on requirements suffered. Great wind videos, some flooding. Nicholas made an impact.

"Surfside" in the news...again?

First this year the condo falling in Surfside, FL. Horrible. A storm was approaching after it fell, but major news was all over it as soon as it collapsed. Now Nicholas hits TX and I keep hearing "Surfside" this and that on the news and on Weather Channel. Surfside again.

My Clearwater Beach client has vacation rentals and our beach cam is in Surfside Condos on Clearwater Beach. So any time "Surfside" is mentioned on the news we get a huge spike in web traffic. But we'd prefer "good" news!! We did have over 20K webcam visitors when Fred came by. Cool with us. Not the best vacation promotion, of course. But not a bad live video stream beach time except for the black sky over the Gulf, everybody was having fun on the beach. ;)

There is also a Surfside Condos in SC and I expect they see the same traffic on their websites.

I'm just hoping this year is not a "Surfside" disaster year with hurricanes or anything else! I hope we here on the Gulf Coast and Surfside Condos on the beach in SC both escape national news this year! If there is a Surfside something in NY or NJ, I would be worried...

 

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Strong wind shear really prevented this from being a worse flooding situation. Shear was so strong it kept most of the heaviest rainfall over the gulf and has displaced the rain shield well away from the coc, causing less intense bands. Storm slightly over produced in the wind department, several gusts over 90 mph and many hurricane force wind gusts showing up (along with incredibly impressive videos from the landfall area), but really seemed to be significantly over modeled in the rainfall department. Have seen some totals over 14” but they seem to be extremely isolated 

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