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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It'll be interesting to see if the Hrrr is correct  - already up to 78.4 here. I think upper 80s seems realistic.

Time to grade the HRRR.  Like almost every warm day this year it was ok for the areas "not too close to Harrisburg" with the exception of the lower lands of Franklin and Perry which also heated up more than forecast today. Mostly low 80's for the York and Lanco areas away from Harrisburg...including down into Maryland.   If we ever figure out what is going on for the Capitol Region, it will be interesting.

 

image.png.86250926ce0135f23dafaf3074872260.png

 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Time to grade the HRRR.  Like almost every warm day this year it was ok for the areas "not too close to Harrisburg" with the exception of the lower lands of Franklin and Perry which also heated up more than forecast today. Mostly low 80's for the York and Lanco areas away from Harrisburg...including down into Maryland.   If we ever figure out what is going on for the Capitol Region, it will be interesting.

 

image.png.86250926ce0135f23dafaf3074872260.png

 

84.4 for me    Saw hgr hit at least 87.  

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3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

84.4 for me    Saw hgr hit at least 87.  

Not thinking there were any Allegiant flights to HGR today.  I was allowing for a 2 degree deviation from the HRRR's LSV 83 forecast so 85 to 81.  Anyone that hit 86 or above (plenty near the Burg) were not forecast correctly.  I did notice the HRRR had Western Franklin hitting 85 today so it did well there was well.  Was concentrating on the LSV on my first post. 

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37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Not thinking there were any Allegiant flights to HGR today.  I was allowing for a 2 degree deviation from the HRRR's LSV 83 forecast so 85 to 81.  Anyone that hit 86 or above (plenty near the Burg) were not forecast correctly.  I did notice the HRRR had Western Franklin hitting 85 today so it did well there was well.  Was concentrating on the LSV on my first post. 

Ended up reaching 87 here...about what I expecting last evening. Still 80 as we approach 7pm. 

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On 9/10/2021 at 12:16 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

First as in ever? Have an awesome time! PSU dubbs itself as the "Greatest Show in College Football" and while it won't be electric like a whiteout night game against OSU, it's going to be a great time nonetheless. Soak it all in and enjoy! 

Yep first time ever.  Was fantastic!  I'll be back for sure.  My wife will be along next time.  Next week is whiteout and they say its something to see.  They look good BTW.  

There were 105322 other people like me that were happy to be living life once again.  

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Florida of PA.   LOL.   But only at night.  They did manage to struggle down to 69 but I foresee a 70+ night coming this week.  We got down to 65 last night. 

Couple 5-min obs of 68 at MDT, so I think that’ll be the official low. Same as we got at PIT, actually, but our high yesterday was only 82.

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Couple 5-min obs of 68 at MDT, so I think that’ll be the official low. Same as we got at PIT, actually, but our high yesterday was only 82.

MDT was not that hot daytime yesterday coming in with an 85.  It's their night time lows that seem weird.  They were 4-8 degrees higher than most of their surrounding ob's at 8PM last night. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT was not that hot daytime yesterday coming in with an 85.  It's their night time lows that seem weird.  They were 4-8 degrees higher than most of their surrounding ob's at 8PM last night. 

Classic UHI just after sunset. It gets clearer and clearer that MDT is just a bad place to take observations. 

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Classic UHI just after sunset. It gets clearer and clearer that MDT is just a bad place to take observations. 

Kind of takes the enjoyment out of tracking norms.  They only show a -1.2 departure for the month at this point.  Many other places around MDT would be in the -3 to -4 area.  Of course maybe it would go both ways and the norms in the other places would be different as well so who knows. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Kind of takes the enjoyment of of tracking norms.  They only show a -1.2 departure for the month at this point.  Many other places around MDT would be in the -3 to -4 area.  Of course maybe it would go both ways and the norms in the other places would be different as well so who knows. 

Even the PIT departure of -3.4 through this past Saturday should be easily made up and then some this week. Above normal month seems like a sure bet at MDT and more likely than not at PIT.

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Just now, TimB84 said:

Even the PIT departure of -3.4 through this past Saturday should be easily made up and then some this week. Above normal month seems like a sure bet at MDT and more likely than not at PIT.

At this point I have to ignore MDT's number a bit as I cannot control it.  This morning was the first morning I had a low above normal this month (using MDT's though). But I agree MDT is going above normal in the next few days.  GFS still insists on highs being at or below normal later this week...but not lows. 

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9 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Yep first time ever.  Was fantastic!  I'll be back for sure.  My wife will be along next time.  Next week is whiteout and they say its something to see.  They look good BTW.  

There were 105322 other people like me that were happy to be living life once again.  

I was super jealous! I'll be at 2 games this year (Indiana and Illinois) and cannot wait. I was soaking the energy in through my big screen on Saturday. I am beyond ready to tailgate with family and resume enjoying spectacular Saturdays at the Greatest Show in College Football! 

Glad you had a wonderful time! 

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4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Everybody complains about airport readings, but it goes both ways.

THV radiates very well and is a “misrepresentation” of true York, PA readings.

The only way to really solve it is take multiple readings from area then average it out.


.

Cold, clear winter nights...York city is probably +8 while the airport reading is -11. You're absolutely right...

THV has been on occasion the 2nd coldest airport in the state behind Bradford on those kind of nights. 

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42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT was not that hot daytime yesterday coming in with an 85.  It's their night time lows that seem weird.  They were 4-8 degrees higher than most of their surrounding ob's at 8PM last night. 

Something weird happened last evening...Canderson spiked to 82 after dark, I was still at 77 at 11pm. I was kind of surprised I got "down" to 70 last night. Whatever, but last evening was an incredibly mild, humid evening after dark. My wife was out and came home around 9pm and was going on about how "hot" it was outside...and she is NOTHING like me. For her to say it was hot was telling. 

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23 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Everybody complains about airport readings, but it goes both ways.

THV radiates very well and is a “misrepresentation” of true York, PA readings.

The only way to really solve it is take multiple readings from area then average it out.


.

I think the issue is less about airport readings on any given day and more about record keeping.  But I agree that a full representation of an area, maybe by average, is better than having the warmest or coldest (or close to it) place in the area be your representative. 

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