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Central PA - Fall 2021


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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

This morning's GFS is most excellent. A negative Sept back on the possibility board.   Temp's at MDT stay 70 or lower 24/7 after next Tuesday.  Very similar for Pitt. 

The cool down hasn’t reached PA by the end of the EC or CMC runs, which I’d like to see before I say September can be salvaged.

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59 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea. its definitely a one man band right now. 

But....post 9/22, I really like the tune that its playin......

It's been showing up so hopefully it has some legs, or even a compromise, would be acceptable.  Biggest takeaway on GFS is that 9/22 on, the BIG red blob in the central basin is no longer there.  Thats the signal I'm focusing on.  Without it, westerlies are just 60's and 70's for daytime highs...

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8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

But....post 9/22, I really like the tune that its playin......

It's been showing up so hopefully it has some legs, or even a compromise, would be acceptable.  Biggest takeaway on GFS is that 9/22 on, the BIG red blob in the central basin is no longer there.  Thats the signal I'm focusing on.  Without it, westerlies are just 60's and 70's for daytime highs...

Yep, its not something that is definitely coming but at least there is hope for a solution that could limit this heat down to just a few more days since Thur and Friday seem less hot as well.  Wed and then a few days into next week. 

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On 9/5/2021 at 12:36 PM, TimB84 said:

Imagine if someone had told me 48 hours ago that this map would exist today:

9649E0A7-558E-4D72-9B46-290FBCAC2249.jpeg.9f437bf6b785b01d6ee781e7490b4608.jpeg

It’s hard when the quoted map here was the GFS’s map for today, just 9 days out. I think there was also one where my afternoon temp was 47 sometime this upcoming weekend, but we’ll give that one a pass because it was a lot longer range.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Nothing has been consistent but I agree that the GFS has not done well handling the Sept heat.  Seems to throw us a bone every few runs then yank it. 

Oddly, the position of Nicholas on that map isn’t terrible.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS delayed but not denied next week. 

Ah yes, now we’re into that phase where there are 9 days of heat. And when we wake up tomorrow, there will still be 9 days of heat. And when we wake up Thursday, there will still be 9 days of heat.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

-.5 going into today so it will move to a small positive number tomorrow.  Later the month goes, the less severe the moves will be one way or another. 

Thanks. I assumed that the negative departure had been eroded but wasn't sure exactly how far it had reversed. Lots of weather left! 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks. I assumed that the negative departure had been eroded but wasn't sure exactly how far it had reversed. Lots of weather left! 

Just based on the GFS, which is a weak base of course, MDT would be probably +3ish going into the last 8-10 days of the month so could be close to a wash and very close to normal at the end of the month.  Again just based on today's GFS.  If I had to be pinned down for a number right now I would guess MDT ends up +1 to +2.   

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Just based on the GFS, which is a weak base of course, MDT would be probably +3ish going into the last 8-10 days of the month so could be close to a wash and very close to normal at the end of the month.  Again just based on today's GFS.  If I had to be pinned down for a number right now I would guess MDT ends up +1 to +2.   

GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief.

Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240.

Ugh.

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

GFS looks like it’s beating back that late-month trough with yet another ridge. Short-lived relief.

Cold front is west of the Mississippi on the CMC at 240.

Ugh.

Yes, if I had to guess on the 6Z GFS I would have said MDT is back to negative by month end.  GFS has some below normal days but not exactly fall like.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, if I had to guess on the 6Z GFS I would have said MDT is back to negative by month end.  GFS has some below normal days but not exactly fall like.

Looks like we’re right in the battleground between the trough and the ridge at the end. That would be fairly seasonable.

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

CMC has some fairly nice days next week.  Would be 40's for lows here.  Probably 60's for HIA. 

Just looked at the earlier parts of the GFS run, which suggest 90 is still in play for me early next week, when my normal high is 73.

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