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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Oh....the new Gfs has definitely closed the gap all but completely with the Euro . I do still believe overall h5 the EC out performs but not by alot anymore.  Discreet threats the EC tends to over amplify like the Canadian and UK often . 

I agree with you in that the way NCEP measures the various suites, the EC is probably still superior in front placement and timing but for the every day "what is the weather going to be like 3 days from now", the EC really has turned into the model that keeps caving.  Not sure if we are in an overall atmospheric period that is problematic for the EC's routines or if changes have made it less effective.  I noticed it starting last winter and then with all the ridge's and trough talk here this year. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I agree with you in that the way NCEP measures the various suites, the EC is probably still superior in front placement and timing but for the every day "what is the weather going to be like 3 days from now", the EC really has turned into the model that keeps caving.  Not sure if we are in an overall atmospheric period that is problematic for the EC's routines or if changes have made it less effective.  I noticed it starting last winter and then with all the ridge's and trough talk here this year. 

I personally think the changes made to the Euro last time are a culprit . I have no real proof but it's not quite the same imo since  .The bit more progressive Gfs solutions this past year for  storm solutions  seems to have won out often for sure .

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Trip home on the Turnpike- had snow cover from the Donegal exit to just east of Somerset. Didn't see anything in the Bedford area but did see a little snow on the higher peaks approaching Blue Mountain. Most I saw in any area was just west of Somerset where there was 2-3" on the ground.

Yea...Somerset is a good spot for upslope and Les( Garrett Co ,Md is best ). I have relatives there and have chased there many times . April 18-19, 2012 was one of my favorite chases. Also drove out the day after the December 1992 bomb . Huge accumulations out there .

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Coldest day of the season by far over here....topped out at 40 but now down to 34 with a wind chill of 22

44 here for the high.   My Rainwise station crashed so I’m putting that out of service permanently.   I just bought the weather link for my VP2 and my plan is to have that online tomorrow or Wednesday 

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The 0z EPS has a great looking pattern for the last week of November with blocking up top, ridge in the west and the trough in the east. If this look holds, we will soon be tracking winter storm chances in our region.

Here is the the week 2 look and the look at day 15 at the end of the 15 day run as we begin December.

DB63F673-5EA0-4DF6-B2C5-623D3B97F84D.png

C3CB28FA-B8FE-4E67-BF85-2CC703F287F4.png

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54 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z EPS has a great looking pattern for the last week of November with blocking up top, ridge in the west and the trough in the east. If this look holds, we will soon be tracking winter storm chances in our region.

Here is the the week 2 look and the look at day 15 at the end of the 15 day run as we begin December.

DB63F673-5EA0-4DF6-B2C5-623D3B97F84D.png

C3CB28FA-B8FE-4E67-BF85-2CC703F287F4.png

that sure is a nice look.  Been away for a while and just getting back into the swing of things.  Thanks for making my Tuesday start out well.

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saw 28 frosty degrees just outside of town on way to work.  Yesterday and today feel great.  True late autumn weather and new woodstove is burning. 

Midweek warmup is how autumn rolls, but if the Blizz maps have any verification, it will really feel like the holiday season.  I'm down w/ that.

 

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