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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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11 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

There’s a guy with a handle in here TugHill Matt…stay away and save yourself…he’s a black cat under a ladder playing the ouija board all while watching the shining all in one…

LOL! So descriptive....yet you still forgot that I've also been breaking mirrors....

9 hours ago, Syrmax said:

We used to have solid snowfall here locally but not since @TugHillMattarrived, after single handedly destroying the snowmobiling industry during his time on the Tug.  Now we just Sizzle Sizzle. ;)

Maybe you can snowmobile on your pool when it's frozen over this winter...

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Good agreement dry weather will prevail through Monday night all
areas as omega block aloft holds sfc ridge over Northeast. H85 temps
in mid teens and full sunshine results in aiming highs into the low-
mid 80s on Monday, which is similar to continuity and above even
warmest guidance. Ridge aloft starts to break down on Tuesday and
could see some showers into far western NY on edge of warm conveyor
belt moisture of system crossing the western Great Lakes.

Showers should become better organized on Tuesday night, but again
most focused over western NY. Will be back to mild nights with gusty
southerly flow ahead of front. Readings on the lake plains will stay
in the mid 60s. Forecast soundings Monday night through Tuesday
Night point to wind gusts toward 30 mph at times, especially near
shorelines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unfortunately, the decent agreement seen in the short term does not
carry over into the long term. Main issue is how the models are
handling splitting longwave trough that crosses the central CONUS.

Primary trough which has a lot of jet energy within it, both ahead
of, and in wake of the trough, eventually looks to cut off somewhere
from Ohio valley to lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Still a lot
of uncertainty with the upper low and associated sfc low/cold
front.

GFS remains much quicker than ECMWF and Canadian-NH with overall
front and widespread precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. Current
grids did not stray much from continuity, but would need to be
adjusted toward wetter idea on Thursday versus Wednesday if the
ECMWF idea ends up verifying. Hunch is ECMWF is probably the better
idea, though such a far western solution with low center on Thursday
is probably too much. Looking back, that solution has only been
shown by ECMWF at 00z/12z today whereas before it looked a lot
like current GFS solutions do. Time will tell. Moderate to heavy
rain still a good bet as the front moves though. Thunder chances
look minimal at this point though.

Eventually, drier and somewhat cooler weather will prevail by Friday
with another system working through by next weekend. Highs late this
week will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in wake of the cold
front.
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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Look at the difference between the GFS and euro lol Thursday afternoon..

As NWS alluded to, GFS is quicker with the closed low/front..

 

sfct_anom.us_ne (17).png

sfct_anom.us_ne (16).png

Can this be attributed to a difference with the timing of the cold front?  Euro does show colder temperatures just off to the west. What does hour 132 show?

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Only two other Atlantic hurricane seasons have had 16 named storms by Sept. 19 since the satellite era began in 1966. Those were the 2005 and 2020 seasons, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

 

Meanwhile, tropical depression Seventeen formed Sunday. Forecasters said it was over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, about 330 miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

The tropical depression had maximum sustained winds around 35 mph. The system was expected to become a tropical storm later Sunday or on Monday, however there were no immediate threats to land, forecasters said.

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Overall, guidance continues the slower trend with respect to the
eastward progression of large storm system that will impact our
region during the second half of this week. GFS remains the fastest,
while the still preferred solution advertised by the Canadian
NH/ECMWF remains on the slower side of the envelope. Large upper low
will lumber northward from the Ohio Valley to the Central Lakes
Thursday into Thursday night, before getting `kicked` well north
toward James Bay on Friday owed to the next strong trough digging
toward the upper Great Lakes. At the surface a strong cold front
will approach then occlude as it slowly crosses the lower Great
Lakes sometime later Thursday into Friday, while its` associated
surface low mirrors the track of its` parent upper low. Strong LL
jet, favorable UL jet placement and strong vorticity advection will
provide ample forcing...and when combined anomalous deep moisture
advection, will likely produce a period of moderate to heavy rain
along and ahead of the boundary as it crosses the region during this
timeframe.

Cold front should finally get shoved completely east of our area by
Friday night as the next powerful shortwave digs southeast across
the upper Great Lakes, also accompanied by a strong surface cold
front. Drier and cooler air will settle in toward the end of the
work week in the wake of the first boundary, so depending on the
exact timing, there will likely be a relatively short window of dry
weather between the two systems from sometime Friday into the first
part of the weekend. This will only be followed up by the next
powerful system (mentioned above) to impact our region next weekend
as well. There will again be plenty of forcing in play, however much
less in the way of available moisture will really cut down on
rainfall amounts and coverage. A reinforcing shot of cooler more
seasonable air will also filter across the lower Great Lakes in the
wake of this system.

p168i (28).gif

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So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

My theory has been that heat islands play a much larger role in the data acquisition and/or warming than is being credited. The problem is that no one will buy an anti urban sprawl campaign when the constituents largely live in urban areas.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

I messaged Kbuf and they said nothing is wrong with thermometer. It’s 59 at Kbuf right now and 61 in Hamburg. 

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So the temperature disparity it’s really noticeable this am…KBUF 58, Williamsville 60, Lancaster 49, Tonawanda 49 uIB north 50…you get the point….as an official reporting station that has a great influence on the temperature increase/decrease and averages based on the warming earth this is highly misleading data. This is not the first time in the last year we’ve spotted this disparity.

KBUF is 63 at the 9am update.  Looks pretty much in line to me…8869FAAF-B2EC-4A18-AA55-EF5FD3B2AE5E.jpeg.c170b3d67f32a35267b53f86cef3a454.jpeg

D0FEEE68-C70D-47AC-87E1-43486B703FC5.jpeg

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HWO

A complex storm system will develop over the Upper Ohio valley and
mid western states on Tuesday. This slow moving system will cross our
region Wednesday into Thursday. At the least, we can expect a soaking
rainfall of an inch or more. There will be an elevated risk for
rainfall that could exceed two inches.

 

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