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Tropical Storm Fred


WxWatcher007
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5 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

it’s raining out 

Well it must be Fred..duh! lol. I detect the use of illicit substances among some of these posters. Or maybe the lack of needed prescribed psychotropics?

 

Fred is going to crush Miami like a thousand tons of heavy stones. The mega tsunami-like surge will strip the surface to bare bedrock.

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8 PM NOAA Public Advisory:

"Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected <******>. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again on <*********>."

"The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches)"

Have we not seen this repeated for about 72 hours?

 
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12 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said:

We are actually getting some big storms rolling in off of the atlantic here in Stuart, Fl. Lightning like crazy here and rain curtains. 

closing in on 2.5” of rain in the last hour in Sewalls point.  Over 1” in just the last 15 minutes. 
 

higher end event rain totals will verify with this kind of head start on the treasure coast 

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5 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said:

We are actually getting some big storms rolling in off of the atlantic here in Stuart, Fl. Lightning like crazy here and rain curtains. 

In all seriousness, I haven't seen lightning like the past few days here in a couple years or more. Maybe several years. I love lightning and stay up all night waiting to watch any and have been doing so my entire life. This week there is a "charge" in the ground and it is releasing intensely. Impressive.

Does it have anything to with what Fred might do, or might not do. Beats me. But I will say there is something going on meteorologically on this little peninsula, maybe easily explained by mets who know more than me.

 

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All that giant convection we've seen trail behind and follow Fred to the east and south for days may possibly follow what's left of Fred into Florida and GA, SC, NC, etc. Maybe it is a day or two behind, or three days even, yet we can see what we see. It has been more exciting and interesting to a lot of us deceiving and tricking us into thinking a new Fred was forming.

Even if Fred dies, all that is behind it could be memorable for we who live in Florida.

Or everything might fizzle and be a bust...

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4 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

4.11 in last hour.  closing in on 6” on the day.  

The winds and rain we've had here over a few days combined would be what we'd expect from a Tropical Storm. In fact, I've done more cleanup in my yard today than with Hurricane Elsa which passed by just a few miles off the coast of here. Plus several hours of losing power which we only had a few minutes during Elsa, and zero outage with Eta.

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I still haven’t seen a definitive center today, the low level cloud swirl this morning still didn’t have defined west winds. There’s radar and everything is moving some kind of west. This is a wave, NHC has not downgraded just for purposes of continuity expecting it to redevelop, which I do understand 

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

I still haven’t seen a definitive center today, the low level cloud swirl this morning still didn’t have defined west winds. There’s radar and everything is moving some kind of west. This is a wave, NHC has not downgraded just for purposes of continuity expecting it to redevelop, which I do understand 

NHC still has it right along the coast of Cuba, or just inland. LLC and MLC definitely not lined up. 
Once it clears Cuba airspace we will get a better idea of what is going on as the hurricane hunters head back in.

Mission from earlier today

 

image.thumb.png.e62eea7878ebbd2e7a716a473cb372dd.png

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1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

NHC still has it right along the coast of Cuba, or just inland. LLC and MLC definitely not lined up. 
Once it clears Cuba airspace we will get a better idea of what is going on as the hurricane hunters head back in.

Mission from earlier today

 

image.thumb.png.e62eea7878ebbd2e7a716a473cb372dd.png

A broad area of 5 kts of wind…

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Also, the storms that keep getting mentioned in this thread are more related to the influx of tropical moisture interacting with a trough than what remains of Fred, though I guess by default Fred’s moisture is somewhat responsible 

I don't think that is in question, at least for me. No outer bands of Fred here.

Maybe it is about the heat, humidity, and other factors over Florida being enhanced by the remains of Fred as it moves more towards Florida. Given what is happening with formula number one (thunderstorms already packing a respectable punch), and formula number two (Fred's whatever will be left and it's tail following along), Florida is in for a few likely scenarios including a TON of hard pounding rain with possible inches at a time and some significant winds where we are already seeing near hurricane strength gusts on a daily basis.

A Cat (?) hurricane from Fred, we'll leave that to the turtle maybe, but will we who live here in Florida experience a "Fred"? I do think so. Just timing maybe.

If it does become a Tropical Storm which the NOAA still suggests, Fred might have quite an impact. Not only here but in other states as well.

 

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It’s not surprising that Fred looks awful. Virtually all the guidance keeps this system struggling about 36 more hours. 

I don’t think its current appearance is indicative of what it’ll look like in a more favorable environment. Not saying it’ll be a hurricane lol, but it’ll have a good chance to reorganize in the Gulf.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s not surprising that Fred looks awful. Virtually all the guidance keeps this system struggling about 36 more hours. 

I don’t think its current appearance is indicative of what it’ll look like in a more favorable environment. Not saying it’ll be a hurricane lol, but it’ll have a good chance to reorganize in the Gulf.

I don’t want to see this thread 36 hours from now if “Fred” maintains its current form during that period 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s not surprising that Fred looks awful. Virtually all the guidance keeps this system struggling about 36 more hours. 

I don’t think its current appearance is indicative of what it’ll look like in a more favorable environment. Not saying it’ll be a hurricane lol, but it’ll have a good chance to reorganize in the Gulf.

I don't care if the GoM waters are as warm as hell, if that shear doesn't get out of the way, Fred won't be able to do any rapid intensification. 

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t want to see this thread 36 hours from now if “Fred” maintains its current form during that period 

Some will still be calling for a hurricane :lol: 

4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I don't care if the GoM waters are as warm as hell, if that shear doesn't get out of the way, Fred won't be able to do any rapid intensification. 

No doubt. To be clear that’s not what I’m calling for. If I were making an intensity call at landfall I’d probably go 60mph/1004mb or something in that ballpark. Still sheared, with most of the rain (and a lot of it) on the eastern side as usual. Moderate strength TS.

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