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July 2021 Observations


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  • jburns pinned, unpinned and pinned this topic
5 minutes ago, yotaman said:

New month, new observations. Post them here.

Currently 88/78. Got my backyard cut in anticipation of tomorrow's rain.

About time. I’ve been waiting all day for someone to start this thread so I could pin it.

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

.13 so far and still sprinkling #winning

Congratulations.  Glad someone is getting something.  I’m at 0.00”, the latest HRRR run gives me a pleasant mist, and RAH is dropping their point forecast estimate like a rock.  Tomorrow’s forecast goes from 90% (2.00”) to 60% (0.25”).

Un-freakin’-real that I can’t get anything from this setup.  Still sitting at 0.69” over the last three weeks.

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10 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

Congratulations.  Glad someone is getting something.  I’m at 0.00”, the latest HRRR run gives me a pleasant mist, and RAH is dropping their point forecast estimate like a rock.  Tomorrow’s forecast goes from 90% (2.00”) to 60% (0.25”).

Un-freakin’-real that I can’t get anything from this setup.  Still sitting at 0.69” over the last three weeks.

Ended up with .54. I will take it but was really hoping for over an inch. Looks to be dry for at least 4 or 5 days. 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Ended up with .54. I will take it but was really hoping for over an inch. Looks to be dry for at least 4 or 5 days. 

Good to hear that you got something.  My reverse psychology worked on this system.  I kept poopooing it until it relented and gave me a lot of rain.  LOL  It finally started raining around 10:35 PM last night and ended around 8:00 AM with a half hour break around 2:30 AM.  I’m at 2.84”.  Best rain I’ve had in ages.  Some stations over in NE Forsyth had 5” to 6”.

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2 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

Good to hear that you got something.  My reverse psychology worked on this system.  I kept poopooing it until it relented and gave me a lot of rain.  LOL  It finally started raining around 10:35 PM last night and ended around 8:00 AM with a half hour break around 2:30 AM.  I’m at 2.84”.  Best rain I’ve had in ages.  Some stations over in NE Forsyth had 5” to 6”.

Congrats. Waiting on the here. Cloudy, windy, and humid right now. 77/68.

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5 hours ago, yotaman said:

.19" today was it. Just light rain now. Main line dissolved as it got close to me and new line formed just to my east. My luck ran out for now.

I watched that line approach your area on the radar.  Crazy how it faded so quickly right at the New Bern city limits.  I’ve had my share of that.  Very frustrating.

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11 hours ago, Avdave said:

Actual fropa getting close to the triangle. Looks like heavy rains and some T & L with them.  Should help pad the rainfall 

Faded while moving over me. Only picked up an additional 0.13” for a storm and July total of 1.31” 

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1 hour ago, Avdave said:

This is only one model, not a assortment of models. 

True, but it looks like Elsa is going to be really the only widespread source of rain through the forecast period. Subsidence on the backside of the system will limit what the trough moving through (feature kicking the system out) can produce. Beyond Elsa, models have been showing very few features that would promote anything other than isolated storms. So if Elsa doesn’t pan out for some areas, it’s looking like a dry stretch for those places 

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10 hours ago, Avdave said:

This is only one model, not a assortment of models

Our only hope is Elsa trending west. Piedmont folks may get some but western piedmont and foothills looks dry the next few weeks other than pop up storms. And that is a model consensus.

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13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Our only hope is Elsa trending west. Piedmont folks may get some but western piedmont and foothills looks dry the next few weeks other than pop up storms. And that is a model consensus.

Interestingly, the latest GFS and Euro have Elsa tracking along a more western path than the NHC guidance.  They must know something I don’t, but they do it for a living and I’m a lowly member of a weather board.  :lol:

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1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

Interestingly, the latest GFS and Euro have Elsa tracking along a more western path than the NHC guidance.  They must know something I don’t, but they do it for a living and I’m a lowly member of a weather board.  :lol:

WPC not enthralled with the western tracks

CDB037B1-7C93-4686-A338-D562441BF66E.jpeg

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