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Hurricane Elsa


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First sounding away from the center is fairly impressive. Recon en route to center which looks increasingly well-defined on radar. 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:38Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Name: Elsa
Storm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 2nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 14.0N 58.7W
Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the NE (45°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 042 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1014mb (29.95 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.0°C (75°F) 105° (from the ESE) 25 knots (29 mph)
1000mb 125m (410 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 22.9°C (73°F) 110° (from the ESE) 32 knots (37 mph)
925mb 809m (2,654 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 19.8°C (68°F) 120° (from the ESE) 46 knots (53 mph)
850mb 1,538m (5,046 ft) 16.8°C (62.2°F) 14.8°C (59°F) 125° (from the SE) 64 knots (74 mph)
700mb 3,171m (10,404 ft) 7.8°C (46.0°F) 6.9°C (44°F) 125° (from the SE) 66 knots (76 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 12:21Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 14.03N 58.79W
- Time: 12:26:41Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 34 knots (39 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 56 knots (64 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 693mb to 1013mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404
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Interesting...basically 10mb higher than the estimate, and higher than the observed pressure in Barbados. 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 13:10Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Name: Elsa
Storm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 2nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 13.0N 60.3W
Location: 48 statute miles (77 km) to the W (261°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 043 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1004mb (29.65 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 23.2°C (74°F) 255° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph)
1000mb 37m (121 ft) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 255° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph)
925mb 723m (2,372 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 20.2°C (68°F) 165° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph)
850mb 1,456m (4,777 ft) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 17.4°C (63°F) 195° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
700mb 3,106m (10,190 ft) 11.8°C (53.2°F) 7.6°C (46°F) 45° (from the NE) 3 knots (3 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 12:56Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 12.99N 60.32W
- Time: 13:01:14Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 1003mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404
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Here's the first vortex message (VDM). I really want to see what happens when they sample the northern part of the core, which on radar looks to be a partial eyewall. So critical to have recon to resolve stuff like this. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 13:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Name: Elsa
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:56:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12.98N 60.31W
B. Center Fix Location: 49 statute miles (79 km) to the W (259°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,112m (10,210ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 255° at 3kts (From the WSW at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 51kts (58.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the E (82°) of center fix at 12:44:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 62kts (From the ESE at 71.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 12:23:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28kts (32.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WSW (245°) of center fix at 13:00:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 33° at 18kts (From the NNE at 20.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (265°) of center fix at 12:58:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 1°C (34°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center at 12:23:00Z
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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

New center dropsonde says it's still only ~1003 mb.

Yeah, very interesting. Part of it might be the trades/motion screwing with things, but it's quite odd to see given the IR/radar/microwave/ground obs. I'll wait for recon to finish before making any judgments though. This is why we send the planes in.  

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, very interesting. Part of it might be the trades/motion screwing with things, but it's quite odd to see given the IR/radar/microwave/ground obs. I'll wait for recon to finish before making any judgments though. This is why we send the planes in.  

Might be hard to get accurate data in this case

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Just now, BYG Jacob said:

Might be hard to get accurate data in this case

Could be. Not questioning the skill or experience of the recon team, but maybe rapid motion might be making it more difficult to pin down things?

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Still freaking high for a cane

Also, highest pressure in a hurricane is 1005mb (TWO, 1946) with 80mph winds

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, definitely high. Really hope they get a north-->south pass. 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Could be. Not questioning the skill or experience of the recon team, but maybe rapid motion might be making it more difficult to pin down things?

Yeah, definitely high. Really hope they get a north-->south pass. 

Exactly my thoughts. Keeping up with Elsa's small core is going to be immensely difficult until the storm slows down. It is clear that given the extreme ridging that pressure in Elsa will be abnormally high, and Elsa is absolutely producing hurricane-force winds.

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Still deep in the cone here in SouthEast Florida. This is definitely a hard approach angle for anything big to happen here though. Usually the Greater Antilles will suck a storm like this right into the mountains.
 

Could easily see a decent tropical storm impact though, with lots of juicy rain bands.

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Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized, 
and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts at 
eye formation.  The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbados 
near 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at that 
time. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. It 
should be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developed 
at 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed.

The initial motion is 290/25.  There is little change to the 
forecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory.  
The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward 
notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr. 
After that, the general consensus is that Elsa should turn northward 
by 96 h through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a 
mid-latitude trough.  However, the guidance is quite divergent 
around this consensus, with possible tracks ranging from a 
west-northwestward motion through the Yucatan Channel or western 
Cuba to a northward motion through the Bahamas.  Thus, the latter 
portion of the track forecast remains low confidence.

The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during 
the next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of light 
westerly shear.  After that, land interaction, along with less 
favorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to 
cause weakening.  The new NHC intensity forecast shows major 
adjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on the 
initial intensity.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles 
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.  Given the 
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well 
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on 
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area 
in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected in other portions of the Windward and 
Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane 
Warning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are 
expected with hurricane conditions possible along the southern 
coast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica. 

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward 
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain 
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern 
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides 
are possible.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge and 
rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba this weekend and early next 
week, with impacts also possible in the Turks and Caicos and 
the Bahamas. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's  
progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the 
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. 
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to 
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. 
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to 
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 13.4N  61.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 14.6N  64.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 16.3N  69.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 17.8N  73.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.3N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 20.7N  78.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 22.1N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 96H  06/1200Z 26.0N  82.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/1200Z 30.6N  81.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

Still deep in the cone here in SouthEast Florida. This is definitely a hard approach angle for anything big to happen here though. Usually the Greater Antilles will suck a storm like this right into the mountains.
 

Could easily see a decent tropical storm impact though, with lots of juicy rain bands.

Sending advance Thoughts & Prayers as you prepare to contend with massive local impacts from occasional breeziness and scattered showers.  
 

Looking forward to the play by play.

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