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Central PA - Summer 2021


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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

That is BS! LOL! But those are my initials. 

They should try search parameters "paweather" "BS" "Aikman" "Irvin" "Palmyra" "Bastardi" ...and see what comes up.  Casey Kasem , Denny Logan and John O'Dea have all mentioned my full name on the air if you want to try.  Some of the mod's know it as well so it cannot be too hard to find. 

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3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

.71 from that 20 min downpour 

I saw Pillow got nicked.  The radar estimated totals are coming in too low today as I am seeing some ob's .5 to 1" all over the eastern LSV into Berks.    The storm that straddled Lebanon/Berks put down some 100+ lighting strikes.  

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
445 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

PAZ057-059-232115-
Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-
445 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Dauphin and
west central Lebanon Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elizabethville, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Hershey, Colonial Park, Progress, Palmyra, Linglestown,
Annville, Paxtonia, Rutherford, Skyline View, Lawnton, Penbrook,
Cleona, Lykens, Paxtang, Elizabethville, Harper Tavern, Dehart Dam,
Fort Indiantown Gap and Penn National Race Course.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 7691 4062 7671 4033 7648 4025 7688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 345DEG 13KT 4055 7680

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

$$

Martin
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8 hours ago, TimB84 said:

I’m still feeling burned (literally) by September 2015-2019. But I guess all I have to do is look at last year, when August 20-27 went 85, 87, 90, 88, 89, 93, 86, 87 imby and then we still got a 2 week dry period in September where several days stayed in the 60s and a couple nights dropped into the 30s.

I know a lot of people here are/were disappointed with the persistent warm temps last fall but here in York, I thought it was perfect weather.

We had days that were overcast, chilly and blustery, cold and rainy, cool and sunny (perfect hoody weather), but those were regularly interspersed with warm, sunny days. If memory serves, the warm stretches were often lengthy enough to make it feel like late summer/early fall even into the first week of November. I think that was a common complaint last year. But then we had the first winter storm on December 16th-17th, which was a nice start to winter.

If I’m being completely honest, I’m really hoping for a repeat of last fall. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Streak said:

I know a lot of people here are/were disappointed with the persistent warm temps last fall but here in York, I thought it was perfect weather.

We had days that were overcast, chilly and blustery, cold and rainy, cool and sunny (perfect hoody weather), but those were regularly interspersed with warm, sunny days. If memory serves, the warm stretches were often lengthy enough to make it feel like late summer/early fall even into the first week of November. I think that was a common complaint last year. But then we had the first winter storm on December 16th-17th, which was a nice start to winter.

If I’m being completely honest, I’m really hoping for a repeat of last fall. 

 

It's only weather, right?   The group is diverse so we will never find the perfect weather.  I can only hope for the results that make everyone as happy as they can be.  No one wants snow in Sept (except maybe a couple guys just North of Harrisburg). 

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5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

With all this rain that some of us have received the last 2 months, are we being primed for a tropical system like Lee to deliver the knockout punch? It will be 10 years next month since Lee. I remember I had about 15 in of rain at my place.

If East PA/NJ/South East NY get a tropical system in the next few weeks, there is going to be a lot of destruction.  Lets hope not.   Y'all just need to start sharing.  Paweather is about to get his third cell in the last 2-3 hours. 

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
612 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

PAZ065-066-232245-
Lancaster PA-York PA-
612 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lancaster
and southeastern York Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
East Petersburg, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Lititz, Millersville, Willow Street, Mount Joy, Manheim,
East Petersburg, Leola, Salunga-Landisville, Rothsville, Strasburg,
Mountville, Quarryville, Delta, Wakefield, Leacock, Smithville,
Holtwood, Shenks Ferry and Safe Harbor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 7650 4022 7630 3983 7602 3982 7604
      3981 7603 3980 7605 3979 7606 3972 7625
      3972 7633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 325DEG 31KT 4010 7637

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

$$

Martin


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5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Lastly, I see our good friend 'Ol Joe Bastardi has come up in conversation quite a bit the last couple of weeks haha.  I understand Joe can rub some people the wrong way, and is often seen as quirky or goofy, but I also believe him to be one of the best out there at what he does.  He's great with large scale patterns and especially historical analogs.  Eric Horst even gave him a shoutout a few days ago, calling him one of the best tropical cyclone forecasters in the world.  Now, even the most well-versed people in this business will end up with egg on their face from time to time.  Heck, sometimes all the predictive variables can be pointing solidly to a particular outcome and Mother Nature will still do something completely different.  Such is this goofy game we all enjoy.  I was at a work conference one time and was fortunate enough to get to see Joe deliver one of his presentations.  The guy has a borderline photographic memory about historical storms and I'm not sure anyone is more passionate about the topic.  Again, I understand he can rub some the wrong way with his takes, but all in all I view him as a pretty harmless guy who's good for a laugh now and then but also knows his craft, albeit with a bit of cold bias thrown in at times ha.  Also, he seems to be pretty tight with many in the Penn State wrestling community, so that's good enough for me haha.  To each their own.  Live on Eskimo Joe!

Great post!

I agree 100% with your thoughts on Joe. I have been and will continue to be a long time subscriber to his Premium website. He is tremendous with pattern recognition. His memory of great storms and the maps that he produces from analog storms or patterns are second to none.

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5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah the popcorn is even fluffier than I thought it would be today.  I might score a bit here in the near future, on a storm that is, as my wife is currently napping with the baby so no other scoring seems imminent.

Update:  I did not score, with the storms or in the sack. 

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4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

We need sun and quite a few dry days, after all I have had over 5 in. Of rain in 8 days. We need to dry out here.

Looking at models, you have today and probably tomorrow. Maybe Thursday as well.  Afternoon convection seems to get more widespread as the week goes on to where it sort of rainy Friday afternoon.    Wed seems more situated to affect Southern border counties of PA up to maybe Harrisburg. 

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