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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

am19psu

By am19psu,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

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GFS aside, until the GEM which has been the best model overall the last 2 events starts becoming a hit I won't feel excited over anything, unless the Euro came in with a monster hit tonight.

Exactly. These far east models heading west might just be them converging on a solution with the models that just graze the coast. You would expect them to start coming back west at this point, after all these models are programmed to process the same data the more reliable models do. I'm still anxious for the Euro soon, but I think that given the pattern and setup on the field, the best solution is a close graze on the NJ coast and western Long Island/maybe NYC, a harder hit out in Suffolk, and possibly a much harder hit for eastern New England. The low will almost certainly wrap up and bomb, but getting it to happen close enough for us to really cash in will be a massive feat. The Nina pattern, although checked by the blocking regime is still asserting itself and forcing the individual players to progress faster than they otherwise would in a normal/Nino year. Look at the ginormous PAC jet crashing into Oregon/CA, that right there could be screwing us by forcing the ridge eastward out of the Rockies and the trough near us to shift east. There's a reason why there haven't been any massive snow events for NYC in strong Nina years, and we're probably seeing it now. Hopefully I'm wrong but I think the smart money is on a close graze for the NJ coast/western Long Island and a harder impact for New England.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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Exactly. These far east models heading west might just be them converging on a solution with the models that just graze the coast. You would expect them to start coming back west at this point, after all these models are programmed to process the same data the more reliable models do. I'm still anxious for the Euro soon, but I think that given the pattern and setup on the field, the best solution is a close graze on the NJ coast and western Long Island/maybe NYC, a harder hit out in Suffolk, and possibly a much harder hit for eastern New England. The low will almost certainly wrap up and bomb, but getting it to happen close enough for us to really cash in will be a massive feat. The Nina pattern, although checked by the blocking regime is still asserting itself and forcing the individual players to progress faster than they otherwise would in a normal/Nino year. Look at the ginormous PAC jet crashing into Oregon/CA, that right there could be screwing us by forcing the ridge eastward out of the Rockies and the trough near us to shift east. There's a reason why there haven't been any massive snow events for NYC in strong Nina years, and we're probably seeing it now. Hopefully I'm wrong but I think the smart money is on a close graze for the NJ coast/western Long Island and a harder impact for New England.

Hey JM, I just got back on here, what did the GFS show for our area? Looks like Don is pretty optimistic for at least getting the 0.50" qpf line back to NYC

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jm1220

jm1220

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Hey JM, I just got back on here, what did the GFS show for our area? Looks like Don is pretty optimistic for at least getting the 0.50" qpf line back to NYC

The 0.75" line crosses our houses. 0.50" goes just about over the George Washington Bridge, 1.0"+ starts just about at the William Floyd Parkway. 1.5" is just off Montauk. 500mb looks much improved and sharper from 18z and the phase occurs sooner. GGEM went west a good amount but only enough to hit SE New England. UKMET went west as well, but GFS ensembles were almost unanimously east of the OP, which is why I'm concerned right now it's only a fluke run that slides east a touch at 6/12z. As usual, we all await the Euro. The unanimous consent thus far seems to show that the northern stream digs a little more and creates a sharper trough than earlier runs had.

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bass28

bass28

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seeing alot of garbage posts from people i wouldnt expect to see post it,everyone needs to stop this negativity still a few good runs to lock this thing in its not over and people are trying to down everyone else with the negativity.

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weatherweather

weatherweather

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Heres how I see it now. There is a strong upper stream s/w, this is what we need to dive down to turn it negative. The gfs runs of yesterday attempted to do this, but fell slightly short as evident by their broadened troughs. The last few runs have been showing it getting more powerful and diving, just slightly too late. I know most of the other models show completely OTS, but GGEM is doing exactly what gfs did yesterday, diving but not strong enough, and creating a broad trough that does nothing for anyone. I think this merits watching.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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The 0.75" line crosses our houses. 0.50" goes just about over the George Washington Bridge, 1.0"+ starts just about at the William Floyd Parkway. 1.5" is just off Montauk. 500mb looks much improved and sharper from 18z and the phase occurs sooner. GGEM went west a good amount but only enough to hit SE New England. UKMET went west as well, but GFS ensembles were almost unanimously east of the OP, which is why I'm concerned right now it's only a fluke run that slides east a touch at 6/12z. As usual, we all await the Euro. The unanimous consent thus far seems to show that the northern stream digs a little more and creates a sharper trough than earlier runs had.

Hmmm, almost sounds like the GFS OP run took on the persona of one of its top 2-3 bullish ensembles from previous runs, but the other ensemble runs didnt change at all. From what youre saying, Im guessing the ensemble means of the 0z GFS was still around 0.5" qpf?

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