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2021 North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest


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Found these seasonal forecasts for reference (only the most recent version noted here):

CSU _____ 18 8 4 (June 3rd)

NOAA ___ 13-20 6-10 3-5 (May 20th)

 _ median _ 16.5 / 8 / 4

UKMO ___ 15* 7 3 (May 20th _ added 1 since they state 14 7 3 for official season)

NCSU ___ 15-18 7-9 2-3 (Apr 14)

_ median 16.5 / 8 / 2.5

TWC ____ 19 8 4 (May 13)

TSR _____ 18 9 4 (May 27)

UA ______ 18 8 4 (Apr 13)

avg of all _ 17 8 4

Will place that in the contest as "expert" since it comes pretty close to matching most of them anyway.

However, will also enter "NOAA median" as a separate entry. 

Our consensus so far appears to be closer to 20 10 5 (and our consensus is usually a bit more bullish than the experts, which works out well in active years and badly in low years). 

Last year if you didn't enter this or read the thread, we were all obviously low on named storms (30) although some had very good hurricane and major forecasts. I had to score by a beta method when the official contest scoring saw even the best calls reduced to zero with that absurdly high named storm count. 

So, this year, the official contest scoring will follow that precedent just in case we go off on a bender again with every swirl of cloud getting a name. Scoring as follows:

base score 100

_ less one quarter of (error of named storms) + (error squared of named storms)

_ less one half of (error of hurricanes) + (error squared of hurricanes)

_ less one half of (error of majors) + (error squared of majors)

... example follows ...

Your forecast 19 10 5 

Actual count 22 11 3

Your score = 100 - (0.25)* (3+9) -- (0.5)*(1+1) -- (0.5)*(2+4) = 100 - 3.0 -- 1.0 -- 3.0 = 93.0

(before it would have been 90.0)

... in a case more similar to last year ...

Your forecast 19 10 5

Actual count 28 11 3

... your score 100 - 0.25* (9+81) --1.0 --3.0 = 100 --22.5 --1.0 --3.0 = 73.5

(before it would have been 51.0).

________________________________________________

If this scoring system makes you consider any change in forecast, I won't be collecting forecasts for a table of entries until June 11th.

The contest deadline will be June 11th 06z (end of Thursday June 10th). Late entries will be docked one point per day, squared. (1, 4, 9 etc).

That means there is no point in entering beyond June 20th as your late penalty is then 100. (this late penalty will be worked out on an hourly basis from the 06z deadline). 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

So, this year, the official contest scoring will follow that precedent just in case we go off on a bender again with every swirl of cloud getting a name. Scoring as follows:

base score 100

_ less one quarter of (error of named storms) + (error squared of named storms)

_ less one half of (error of hurricanes) + (error squared of hurricanes)

_ less one half of (error of majors) + (error squared of majors)

 

I love mathematical formulas almost as much as a good storm! Funny how "math" connects ALL things. ;)

But I am "John Dee", Prospero of Shake-Speare/Bacon...

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On 6/5/2021 at 8:30 PM, Prospero said:

I love mathematical formulas almost as much as a good storm! Funny how "math" connects ALL things. ;)

But I am "John Dee", Prospero of Shake-Speare/Bacon...

Who

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The deadline for entries has now arrived. Late entries are accepted but with a late penalty of (days late)^2 (or days late squared), with the "days late" determined by hourly precision. Therefore if you read this within the first day of the late period, your penalty will be quite small (the contest is scored out of 100 as explained in a previous post). By day two you are looking at a rather significant late penalty increasing from 1 to 4 points and on day 3, from 4 to 9 points. 

This is a table of entries received. "Expert consensus" refers to a group of pre-season outlooks from noted hurricane research groups, all of which came up with forecasts close to this expert consensus. "NOAA median" refers to the average values of the ranges predicted by NOAA. The contest consensus is based on forecaster entries and does not include the expert consensus or NOAA median. The consensus is the mean of all forecasts submitted. 

The forecasts are listed from most to least named storms, and within ties, the numbers of hurricanes or majors will determine the order; if nothing separates the forecasts at all then order of entry is used. 

Table of forecasts __ 2021 hurricane seasonal contest

FORECASTER _________________ named __ 'canes __ Major 

Macintosh _______________________25 __ 14 __ 10

Tezeta ___________________________23 __ 14 ___ 7

Roger Smith _____________________ 23 __ 13 ___ 7

Southmdwatcher ________________ 22 __ 11 ___ 6

IntenseWind002 _________________ 22 ___ 9 ___ 4

hudsonvalley21 __________________21 __ 11 ___ 6

Newman ________________________ 21 __ 10 ___ 5

J_Keith_Lee _____________________ 21 ___ 9 ___ 4

Brian5671 _______________________ 20 __ 12 ___ 2

RJay ____________________________ 20 __ 10 ___ 5

WxWatcher007 __________________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4

BKViking ________________________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4

 

___ consensus __________________19.2 _ 9.8 __ 4.7

 

DonSutherland1 _________________ 19 __ 12 ___ 6

Ldub ____________________________ 19 __ 11 ___ 5 

magpiemaniac __________________ 19 __ 10 ___ 4

NCforecaster89 _________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 4

Tom ____________________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 3

Looking to the skies _____________ 19 ___ 8 ___ 7

wxdude64 _______________________19 ___ 7 ___ 4

TexMexWx ______________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 4

Cat Lady ________________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 3

snowlover2 ______________________18 ___ 8 ___ 4

Iceresistance ____________________18 ___ 7 ___ 3

Rhino16 _________________________ 17 __ 10 ___ 4

cptcatz __________________________17 ___ 9 ___ 4

NorthHillsWx ____________________17 ___ 9 ___ 3

____ "Expert consensus" _________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 4

TARCweather ___________________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 3

____ NOAA median _____________16.5 ___ 8 ___ 4

Yoda ___________________________ 16 ___ 9 ___ 5

LoboLeader1 ____________________15 ___ 9 ___ 4

Prospero ________________________14 __ 11 ___ 7

_____________________________________________________________

Posting at 0300z 11th, three hours ahead of the deadline. 

Will check for any amended forecasts or new entries within the deadline and incorporate them as required. 

Our consensus is just slightly higher than the expert consensus and actually quite similar to many of the individual forecasts within that consensus which has members at 18 and 19 named storms. 

While almost everyone found a unique forecast, one forecast did overlap an earlier one, in that one case, the earlier forecast would be considered the winner if those numbers are the best forecast. 

Thirty forecasts received so far, plus the two additional entries. 

Good luck to all !

 

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9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Where’s [mention=845]Windspeed[/mention]?

I'll give it another go next season. Good luck!

I vote to extend the deadline another hour for windspeed, without any penalty, if he were to wish to make an entry and his preferred numbers haven’t already been taken; which I presume may be the case.   
 

?

 

Edit: It appears there’s still almost two hours remaining for new entries without any penalty.  

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