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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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Okay I see what the data shows and you are correct. But satellite presentation was not there for this storm at all and 996mb for a hurricane really? I don't know if hurricane classification has changed but at cat 1 30 yrs ago is very different from a cat 1 today. 
The classification has never changed. ≥74MPH sustained surface winds in a tropical cyclone is classified as a hurricane/typhoon depending on basin.
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How can a small storm like andrew for example have a pressure of 974 at cat 1 strength. With an eye starting to show on visible and thats called a cat 1 then. But now a storm like elsa is a cat 1. 

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How can a small storm like andrew for example have a pressure of 974 at cat 1 strength. With an eye starting to show on visible and thats called a cat 1 then. But now a storm like elsa is a cat 1. 
Elsa had stronger surface-based convergence and trade winds on the northern semicircle of its closed circulation than Andrew had in its initial intensification phase. Background in situ tropospheric conditions are just as important as the surface vortex barometric forcing in a tropical cyclone for surface winds. Not all TCs evolve the same. Environment matters as do wind obs.
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3 minutes ago, Weathersteve said:

How can a small storm like andrew for example have a pressure of 974 at cat 1 strength. With an eye starting to show on visible and thats called a cat 1 then. But now a storm like elsa is a cat 1. 

Elsa was moving at 30 mph so those 75 mph observed winds would have been 50 mph if the storm was moving at 5 mph. Regardless, 75 mph sustained winds in a cyclone equals a hurricane. 

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Well thanks for the schooling in classification of hurricanes. I guess I didn't account for speed of storm. That makes sense. But I thought besides the 75 mph classification there was more to it than that. Like a partial eye wall or something along those lines. Am I totally off there?

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Well thanks for the schooling in classification of hurricanes. I guess I didn't account for speed of storm. That makes sense. But I thought besides the 75 mph classification there was more to it than that. Like a partial eye wall or something along those lines. Am I totally off there?
Convective organization consolidated into an eyewall is usually seen and needed to sustain the vortex of the tropical cyclone at ≥74. But that isn't always the case. We have seen eyewalls form in core convention in moderate tropical storms that were only producing 50-55mph winds. Likewise we have examples of hurricanes with broken cells around the vortex that were not producing a solid or even semicircle eyewall. Again, it is not merely the appearance and structure that classifies a hurricane; in situ wind data (or satellite derived estimates, if that is only available) and a closed warm core surface vortex are the requirements for TC classifications.
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Sorry I should have said that earlier. I have no beef with this being hurricane over Barbados at all. It looked vertically aligned with thunderstorms going off over the center. My discrepancy is with the classification of hurricane over the gulf of mexico.

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8 hours ago, Windspeed said:

You joke but...
 

 


In all seriousness, a cool upper level low can allow for some pretty intense lapse rates and thunderstorms this time of year over the hot coffee thermos that is Florida.

 

I can confirm. 

Pretty wicked looking towers yesterday on the way back from Sarasota.

Plenty of CG lightening with those storms. 

Needless to say with traffic and storms what should have been a 2 hour 15 min ride was 3 hours instead.

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22 hours ago, Windspeed said:

You joke but...
 

 


In all seriousness, a cool upper level low can allow for some pretty intense lapse rates and thunderstorms this time of year over the hot coffee thermos that is Florida.

 

That video is better than anything I remember from Elsa!

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6 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Don't post too many videos. They'll end up naming the Upper level low "Fred".

Well, winter storms get names now. Why not name cool upper level lows?

I wouldn't be surprised if heat waves will get names by the end of the year.

Might as well name thunderstorms...

I guess I already do sometimes with religious names, like "Jesus!", "Good God!!", and "Holy S**t!!"

 

 

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1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Well, winter storms get names now. Why not name cool upper level lows?

I wouldn't be surprised if heat waves will get names by the end of the year.

Might as well name thunderstorms...

I guess I already do sometimes with religious names, like "Jesus!", "Good God!!", and "Holy S**t!!"

 

 

I never thought I'd become an old-fogey to where I actually believe we name too much or retire too much. 

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9 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

Crickets not even a Fantasy  storm on the GFS on day 16 crickets”

We had the same thing happen in last year's thread, and then it started quick and didn't end...

 

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With a -ENSO in place, an active August may hinge upon whether the EPAC enters a suppressed regime while a strong WAM continues in the EATL. If PV anomalies are somewhat in check across the Atlantic Basin, then CV season likely kicks off early. Current Bermuda High placement is already a potential harbinger of Caribbean Cruisers. Any subtropical development could threaten Florida, but any deep MDR development likely would maintain Caribbean potential. I expect more Caribbean hurricanes this season. Weak PV anomalies and a suppressed EPAC would obviously increase their ACE potential by mitigating VWS.

To further add upon this, note these graphics by Ben Noll:


Keep in mind that sinking air is only prohibitive of TC development in the genesis stage. With modeled subsidence in August across the EPAC, this may squash TCG occurring there and subsequently qualm outflow induced VWS across the Caribbean and Antilles into the Subtropical Atlantic. Likewise, with atmospheric instability / lift in the EATL coinciding a +WAM, TCGs will be supported from frequent healthy tropical disturbances rolling off the African Continent. Granted, limiting factors such as strong PVs and SAL can still work against potential TCs crossing the MDR, but if those factors are limited, a TC will have no issues intensifying into the WATL. Timing of occasional favorable CCKWs enhance these regardless of overall airmass regime.

At least at this point, an active August looks possible, and certainly a hyperactive September is in the cards as well.
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There's a good discussion ongoing about 2021 following suite with 2020, '18, '16, that late September through October will experience peak activity versus a traditional climo-favored late August to mid September peak.

This would not surprise me in the least. Especially if there is robust MDR warming in September versus typical late July-August and heft poleward motion of the ITCZ.

A slightly below average MDR SST anomaly is currently in place. That may be the only other negative factor against early CV August activity beyond PVs and SAL. Though we are still weeks away and slightly below mean SST data sets can reverse pretty quickly given a few weeks of decreased low level easterlies.

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On 7/10/2021 at 8:25 AM, Weathersteve said:

Okay I see what the data shows and you are correct. But satellite presentation was not there for this storm at all and 996mb for a hurricane really? I don't know if hurricane classification has changed but at cat 1 30 yrs ago is very different from a cat 1 today. 

Background pressures, dude

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

There's a good discussion ongoing about 2021 following suite with 2020, '18, '16, that late September through October will experience peak activity versus a traditional climo-favored late August to mid September peak.

This would not surprise me in the least. Especially if there is robust MDR warming in September versus typical late July-August and heft poleward motion of the ITCZ.

A slightly below average MDR SST anomaly is currently in place. That may be the only other negative factor against early CV August activity beyond PVs and SAL. Though we are still weeks away and slightly below mean SST data sets can reverse pretty quickly given a few weeks of decreased low level easterlies.
 

The ITCZ being further south has very dark implications. The southern band of the MDR is much warmer, and a wave that far south is almost a lock to landfall somewhere.

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40 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Can you explain the implications of this picture?

Nothing to see as far as GFS model through July. Wide open nothingness as far as a storm. That's good, but not very entertaining...

I know the potential is there for later on. But for now, pretty slow.

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On 7/12/2021 at 10:08 AM, Prospero said:

Hey, this looks like a 2021 Hurricane!! ;)

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-gulf-71221.gif.add8ade0d1f3df56c397ad7a706f95ab.gif

I'm surprised there wasn't an X on it. This is what I was talking about btw. This is the type of stuff NHC decideds to name nowadays. How about that yellow X out in the middle of no where too? 

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21 minutes ago, Weathersteve said:

I'm surprised there wasn't an X on it. This is what I was talking about btw. This is the type of stuff NHC decideds to name nowadays. How about that yellow X out in the middle of no where too? Just naming stuff to name stuff and fit the global warming agenda. 

What? 

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