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April 2021

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain, especially during the afternoon into early tomorrow. A thunderstorm is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 81°

Any rain will end early tomorrow. It will become somewhat cooler. 

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Looks like our first +3 SD MJO phase 8 since February 2017. That one was preceded by the blizzard of 2017. But much warmer conditions  and a spring wavelength response didn’t allow for a similar wintery outcome.

 

2021           4          27  -2.8350327       1.1143280               8   3.0461676   
  
2017           2          15  -3.0841775      0.94387865               8   3.2253771

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Feb92017

C1EDE8BC-457F-4451-B51A-812251082760.gif.3a678a1b2a4c04f8fbc7b59cc77bbc8e.gif
A7884EE8-2E39-40A3-A1C5-C9B81A88AECF.gif.caeb34df2ad8c40b45a5edf32d236f23.gif

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It has rained enough since this morning to keep things wet but it's not adding up, just another .01 since 8:30 this morning. It's drizzling now though so we'll see, it looks juicy enough upstream.

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Tomorrow seems real windy with CAA taking place.

 Fully sunny days look like they will be rare for the next 15 days.      Saturday PM may be OK, however.

Just missed the heavy stuff by 5 to 30 miles to the south over last hour.     This was near 9pm.

1619743920-iB5LQjUeWzQ.png

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Showers and periods of rain are likely tonight into early tomorrow. The heaviest rainfall amounts (1" or more) will likely occur over central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. Clouds will yield to sunshine tomorrow. It will become very windy with gusts of 45 mph or above in a large part of the region.

Unseasonable warmth will extend from the Southwest to the Northern Plains. Some locations could challenge daily record high temperatures tomorrow or Saturday.

Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region.

The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +5.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.314 today.

On April 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.046 (RMM). The April 26-adjusted amplitude was 2.720 (RMM).

Today's amplitude at Phase 8 was the highest such amplitude in April recorded in April. The previous record was 2.735, which was set on April 6, 2012.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts...

Yesterday, rainfall records were set in Albany and Binghamton. Albany picked up 1.55” rain (old record: 0.91”, 1996) and Binghamton received 2.46” (old record” 0.86”, 1981).

Today, clouds will break for sunshine and it will become very windy. Winds could gust at 45 mph or higher. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 70°

Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat cooler. 

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The last day of April is averaging 61degs.(55/67),or +2.0.

Month to date is  54.4[+1.6].        April should end at 54.6[+1.6].

The first 10 days of May keep getting cooler, now averaging 57degs.(50/64), or -2.0.      Only 5/04,05 get near 80.       May 10 is down over 30 degrees from the last few days.

61*(70%RH) here at 6am, some clouds,blue sky.        64* by Noon.        Performed a quick V  bet.  2pm-3pm {64-56-64}        Then peaked near 6pm at 67*.      Been falling since then-----to 52* at 10am.       A quick shower occurred near 7:30pm.         Winds never really seemed to reach the potential.50mph.

ADDS JFK says 50mph  WNW gusts to be expected from 3pm to 9pm.

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NYC is currently at the 9th warmest March and April average temperature of 50.0°.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 1945-04-30 53.3 0
2 2010-04-30 53.0 0
3 2012-04-30 52.8 0
4 1921-04-30 52.2 0
5 2016-04-30 51.1 0
6 1985-04-30 50.5 0
7 1903-04-30 50.3 0
8 1977-04-30 50.1 0
- 1946-04-30 50.1 0
9 2021-04-30 50.0 1
- 2002-04-30 50.0 0
- 1991-04-30 50.0 0
10 1973-04-30 49.8 0
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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC is currently at the 9th warmest March and April average temperature of 50.0°.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 1945-04-30 53.3 0
2 2010-04-30 53.0 0
3 2012-04-30 52.8 0
4 1921-04-30 52.2 0
5 2016-04-30 51.1 0
6 1985-04-30 50.5 0
7 1903-04-30 50.3 0
8 1977-04-30 50.1 0
- 1946-04-30 50.1 0
9 2021-04-30 50.0 1
- 2002-04-30 50.0 0
- 1991-04-30 50.0 0
10 1973-04-30 49.8 0

Most of that must be March, April has only been slightly warm.

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Yesterday, rainfall records were set in Albany and Binghamton. Albany picked up 1.55” rain (old record: 0.91”, 1996) and Binghamton received 2.46” (old record” 0.86”, 1981).

Today, clouds will break for sunshine and it will become very windy. Winds could gust at 45 mph or higher. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 70°

Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat cooler. 

how close will freezing temps and snow showers get to us tonight, Don?  NE PA?

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how close will freezing temps and snow showers get to us tonight, Don?  NE PA?

 

Mount Pocono could have a freeze with some snow showers. Binghamton might have a coating of snow. Scranton might see some showers or rain and snow, but probably no accumulation and also no freeze.

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37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Most of that must be March, April has only been slightly warm.

 

A +2.5 to +3.5 March followed by a +1 to +2 April.

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At 8:10 pm, some snow showers were diving southeast through the Catskills. The snow showers were indicated both by the radar and on mPing observations. Snow showers and mixed rain and snow showers are likely overnight in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, extreme northwestern New Jersey, and parts of central New York State.

In New York City, April is finishing with a mean temperature near 54.6°. That was 1.6° above normal. A somewhat warmer than normal May appears likely.

The weekend will start with temperatures near or just below normal. Sunday will see noticeably warmer conditions. Next week could see one or two very warm days (Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday) in much of the Middle Atlantic region.

Meanwhile, in Canada's far north, Eureka in Nunavut registered a new April record high temperature of 30°. The daily record for April 30 was 21°, which was set in 1948. The prior monthly record was 29°, which was set on April 27, 2021.

Unseasonable warmth will again extend from the Southwest to the Northern Plains tomorrow. Some locations could challenge or break daily record high temperatures.

Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region.

The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was -5.84 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.311 today.

On April 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.073 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 3.046 (RMM).

The amplitude of 3.073 is the highest amplitude on record for the MJO's passage through Phase 8 during April. The previous record was set on April 27 at 3.046. Prior to that, there had been no cases where the amplitude reached or exceeded 3.000 during April when the MJO was in Phase 8.

There were only four prior years where the MJO moved through Phase 8 during the second half of April at an amplitude of 2.000 or above. 1977 and 1979 went on to register a very warm May. 1997 and 2005 went on to see a cooler than normal May.

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 8:10 pm, some snow showers were diving southeast through the Catskills. The snow showers were indicated both by the radar and on mPing observations. Snow showers and mixed rain and snow showers are likely overnight in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, extreme northwestern New Jersey, and parts of central New York State.

In New York City, April is finishing with a mean temperature near 54.6°. That was 1.6° above normal. A somewhat warmer than normal May appears likely.

The weekend will start with temperatures near or just below normal. Sunday will see noticeably warmer conditions. Next week could see one or two very warm days (Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday) in much of the Middle Atlantic region.

Meanwhile, in Canada's far north, Eureka in Nunavut registered a new April record high temperature of 30°. The daily record for April 30 was 21°, which was set in 1948. The prior monthly record was 29°, which was set on April 27, 2021.

Unseasonable warmth will again extend from the Southwest to the Northern Plains tomorrow. Some locations could challenge or break daily record high temperatures.

Both the dynamical guidance and statistical measures that incorporate ENSO and the forecast teleconnections are in agreement that the first half of May will likely be warmer than normal in the region.

The ongoing, long-duration MJO passage through Phase 7 at a very high amplitude is also consistent with a warmer than normal May despite the current ENSO conditions. Both April 10-25, 1986 and 2004 saw such an MJO passage (one week or longer through Phase 7), though this one is stronger than both of those prior cases. Both cases had a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around April 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was -5.84 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.311 today.

On April 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.073 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 3.046 (RMM).

The amplitude of 3.073 is the highest amplitude on record for the MJO's passage through Phase 8 during April. The previous record was set on April 27 at 3.046. Prior to that, there had been no cases where the amplitude reached or exceeded 3.000 during April when the MJO was in Phase 8.

There were only four prior years where the MJO moved through Phase 8 during the second half of April at an amplitude of 2.000 or above. 1977 and 1979 went on to register a very warm May. 1997 and 2005 went on to see a cooler than normal May.

 

But 1977 did have that historic cold shot and snowstorm, are you seeing  a noreaster for May?

 

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13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Mount Pocono could have a freeze with some snow showers. Binghamton might have a coating of snow. Scranton might see some showers or rain and snow, but probably no accumulation and also no freeze.

sounds like a lesser version of last May.  I wonder if we'll see something again around the 8-9-10 like we had last year and back in 1977

 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But 1977 did have that historic cold shot and snowstorm, are you seeing  a noreaster for May?

 

Nothing right now. The pattern will become more unsettled for a time next week, though.

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

sounds like a lesser version of last May.  I wonder if we'll see something again around the 8-9-10 like we had last year and back in 1977

 

There could be a cold shot sometime after the first week of May according to some of the guidance. I’m not sure it will be as impressive as the current one. 

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