Blizzard of 93 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 The 6z GFS is still on board for CTP snow tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 hour ago, FHS said: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A period of winterlike weather is in store to close out March and start off April 2021. No joke. Model guidance continues to signal a transition from rain to wet snow (sub climo SLR) tonight with an increased probability for advisory level snow accum across parts of the north-central mtns. Hires models depict a moderate to briefly intense fgen band developing after midnight thru the predawn hours AM Thu in association with RRQ jet dynamics and sharpening low level temp gradient overlapping robust deformation axis. The 00Z HREF shows a several hour period (roughly 05-10Z) of potentially mod-hvy wet snow with max rates in the 0.75-1" range and 30-50% probability of rates exceeding 1 in/hr. There are factors complicating actual snow accumulations with model snow depth fields less than the direct model snow output, implying some initial melting/compacting with sfc temps >0C. Accums may also be variable on roads vs. grass with favorable time of day (night) for accumulation. Given the late-season variability and usual elevation dependence for late-season snow, we were keen to utilize a multi-model blend which produced total snowfall in the 2 to 4 inch range which prompted a winter wx advy issuance for Potter, Tioga, N. Lycoming, and Sullivan Cos. Dynamic cooling and steadily falling maxTw aloft supports mix/changeover to snow even at lower elevations with some wet snow accum (of a coating to 1 inch) possible given higher rates and time of day. As the cold NW flow deepens on Thursday, expect lake/terrain enhanced snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau before tapering off into early Friday. There is also some potential for locally heavy snow showers and/or brief squalls or bursts of graupel. Away from the advisory area, total snowfall through Thursday ranges from 1-3" over the Laurel Highlands to <1 inch between the I-99/US-220 and I-81 corridor. Little to no accum is forecast southeast of I-81 with sfc temps holding in the mid 30s to around 40F. Quite the AFD for an April day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Quite the AFD for an April day. And it is not an April Fools Joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: And it is not an April Fools Joke! The Nam accums might be though. LOL. Most important Nam run of our winter resurgence upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 The Nam stole muh snows. LOL. Philly gets more than downtown Rouzerville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Nam accums might be though. LOL. Most important Nam run of our winter resurgence upcoming. LOL. I just want flakes flying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 CTP doesn't have a mention of a snowflake in my grid forecast, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP doesn't have a mention of a snowflake in my grid forecast, fwiw. Last mention of snow in my forecast was with the Monday AM package. It was gone in the afternoon and hasn't returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 I get that it’s a little harder to get snow in March and April, and that those of us who love snow shouldn’t complain (but often do) when one event or another doesn’t pan out, but we’re talking about a March where (*checks records for MDT*) Harrisburg will likely not even record a flake of snow, which never occurred in the first 110 years of recorded data at Harrisburg, but has now occurred four times since 2000. It’s been a similar story in Pittsburgh, where we officially got a fluke 0.1” out of a squall at the airport on the 1st (I recorded a T at home) and nothing else, which is our least snowy March since observations were moved to the airport in 1948. So I’d say the disappointment is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: I get that it’s a little harder to get snow in March and April, and that those of us who love snow shouldn’t complain (but often do) when one event or another doesn’t pan out, but we’re talking about a March where (*checks records for MDT*) Harrisburg will likely not even record a flake of snow, which never occurred in the first 110 years of recorded data at Harrisburg, but has now occurred four times since 2000. It’s been a similar story in Pittsburgh, where we officially got a fluke 0.1” out of a squall at the airport on the 1st (I recorded a T at home) and nothing else, which is our least snowy March since observations were moved to the airport in 1948. So I’d say the disappointment is warranted. That is interesting...Thanks for sharing. * And to think there is a chance for MDT to record a flake in April (like last year when it snowed in May) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: That is interesting...Thanks for sharing. * And to think there is a chance for MDT to record a flake in April (like last year when it snowed in May) I’m a stats guy. Probably why I’m a fan of both weather and baseball even though both are boring to much of the general populace and both let me down constantly. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: I’m a stats guy. Probably why I’m a fan of both weather and baseball even though both are boring to much of the general populace and both let me down constantly. A man after my own heart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I’m a stats guy. Probably why I’m a fan of both weather and baseball even though both are boring to much of the general populace and both let me down constantly. The disappointment is part of the fun lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 2 hours ago, TimB84 said: I get that it’s a little harder to get snow in March and April, and that those of us who love snow shouldn’t complain (but often do) when one event or another doesn’t pan out, but we’re talking about a March where (*checks records for MDT*) Harrisburg will likely not even record a flake of snow, which never occurred in the first 110 years of recorded data at Harrisburg, but has now occurred four times since 2000. It’s been a similar story in Pittsburgh, where we officially got a fluke 0.1” out of a squall at the airport on the 1st (I recorded a T at home) and nothing else, which is our least snowy March since observations were moved to the airport in 1948. So I’d say the disappointment is warranted. AL Gore is tuning up a message with some more stats! I am glad I sold my Florida property as I hate cleaning barnacles and sea salt off the walls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Last mention of snow in my forecast was with the Monday AM package. It was gone in the afternoon and hasn't returned. I still have snow in my zones and am apparently one of the least likely to get it per 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: AL Gore is tuning up a message with some more stats! I am glad I sold my Florida property as I hate cleaning barnacles and sea salt off the walls Perhaps that’s why I like the cold and snow records better than I like the heat records - because, to continue the baseball analogy, the heat records are like someone on steroids (or a player for the Rockies) hitting 60-70 home runs in a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Perhaps that’s why I like the cold and snow records better than I like the heat records - because, to continue the baseball analogy, the heat records are like someone on steroids hitting 60 home runs in a season. Yea, tracking heat records is like trying to win the World Series with all singles hitters or like you said fake HR records. Sammy Sosa time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, tracking heat records is like trying to win the World Series with all singles hitters or like you said fake HR records. Sammy Sosa time. That said, even with so many records being broken, the eye-popping heat records (daily record highs in July) have stayed relatively safe in places like the interior Northeast and Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Road Trip to Tug Hill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Not HH Nam'd today.....What in the heck is happening someone fix the computers please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Regarding stats, PA is going on 23 years since it’s last significant tornado outbreak. Probably a bit overdue. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 4 hours ago, TimB84 said: I’m a stats guy. Probably why I’m a fan of both weather and baseball even though both are boring to much of the general populace and both let me down constantly. As an Orioles fan for nearly 50 years, I totally understand the feeling of being let down...a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, tracking heat records is like trying to win the World Series with all singles hitters or like you said fake HR records. Sammy Sosa time. Brady Anderson... 50 homeruns in a season, plus 3 more in the postseason. Next best season? 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Go dodgers!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Regarding stats, PA is going on 23 years since it’s last significant tornado outbreak. Probably a bit overdue. . I'm good if we have to wait at least another 23 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: As an Orioles fan for nearly 50 years, I totally understand the feeling of being let down...a lot. I’d say try being a Pirates fan, but then there’s 1979 and 1971 (but both of those are before my time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Brady Anderson... 50 homeruns in a season, plus 3 more in the postseason. Next best season? 24 Von Hayes with some extra shots. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 27 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Go dodgers!! Thanks for chiming in Mookie :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 Canadian continues to suggest some records are going to fall on Saturday AM especially in Virginia, BWI, etc but MDT is at risk as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: I’d say try being a Pirates fan, but then there’s 1979 and 1971 (but both of those are before my time). Both of those at the expense of the Orioles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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