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Central PA - Spring 2021


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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

We’ll pay for this when it’s 85 for 3/4 of October. 

I’m not kidding. I think it happens. 

You may be right. It seems as if our seasons are moving. Colder in late spring and warmer in late fall.

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12 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Your post reminds me of a interesting "fact".  Eating regular ice cream makes your body warmer due to the fat content.  So you could sell to people on warm or cool days.  LOL. 

This is why I'm an advocate for 33 degree beer

12 hours ago, canderson said:

We’ll pay for this when it’s 85 for 3/4 of October. 

I’m not kidding. I think it happens. 

I have suspicion you could be right.

am i correct that it Looks like the rain moves in overnight tonight, then clear early tomorrow? 

is Sunday still looking like sunny, high 80s?  

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6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

This is why I'm an advocate for 33 degree beer

I have suspicion you could be right.

am i correct that it Looks like the rain moves in overnight tonight, then clear early tomorrow? 

is Sunday still looking like sunny, high 80s?  

As you know I forecast using models as much as anything else but the GFS, Nam, and CMC all have rain around the LSV area starting overnight and on and off through the day tomorrow.  Looking at their forecasts it may clear and then cloud up and rain again Sat Afternoon.   Sunday is a bit of a question mark as well but looks a bit better than Sat right now. Highs in the mid 80's on Sunday.  Euro looks drier than the others for Sat with rain coming overnight Sat night and risky for light rain Sunday. 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Rain supported.

 

 

image.png.d94c5be4cd97aa44c3ea213bd9614309.png

Are any of the models more reliable than others right now? If I’m remembering correctly, last summer the Euro was more consistently accurate with the heat while other models were undershooting by a few to several degrees. 

(I know it’s all just guidance and I shouldn’t get my hopes up, but I’m really rooting for some rain here.)

Beautiful morning in York county — 63 and clear skies at 7:23 am. 

 

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16 minutes ago, Streak said:

Are any of the models more reliable than others right now? If I’m remembering correctly, last summer the Euro was more consistently accurate with the heat while other models were undershooting by a few to several degrees. 

(I know it’s all just guidance and I shouldn’t get my hopes up, but I’m really rooting for some rain here.)

Beautiful morning in York county — 63 and clear skies at 7:23 am. 

 

In my opinion, the American models are usually 2-5 degrees too cool on the really hot days (though sometimes its hard to see their actual forecast since some only show maps in 3-6 hour jumps).    But the other way around, the Euro is too warm when it over does a slightly or moderately warm forecast.... especially at night.  

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I like to post this mainly for entertainment purposes - this map often seems to be wrong unless it shows 10" of rain over OBX which verified perfectly, but here is WPC's take on the next week and rainfall:

p168i.gif?1624019458

 

Not a "lot" of rain over eastern PA considering we have several chances to get wet. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

As you know I forecast using models as much as anything else but the GFS, Nam, and CMC all have rain around the LSV area starting overnight and on and off through the day tomorrow.  Looking at their forecasts it may clear and then cloud up and rain again Sat Afternoon.   Sunday is a bit of a question mark as well but looks a bit better than Sat right now. Highs in the mid 80's on Sunday.  Euro looks drier than the others for Sat with rain coming overnight Sat night and risky for light rain Sunday. 

CTP only has me at 30-40% probs until early next week. They don't seem overly enthused about rain chances east of the river until later Monday into Tuesday. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

In my opinion, the American models are usually 2-5 degrees too cool on the really hot days (though sometimes its hard to see their actual forecast since some only show maps in 3-6 hour jumps).    But the other way around, the Euro is too warm when it over does a slightly or moderately warm forecast.... especially at night.  

But does the problem you mentioned arise here too: given that the Euro maps display in 6 hour increments, you get a 6z and a 12z. In winter the 12z is awfully close to when the low temperature would normally occur but in the summer the low temperature typically occurs closer to 9-10z.

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47 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

But does the problem you mentioned arise here too: given that the Euro maps display in 6 hour increments, you get a 6z and a 12z. In winter the 12z is awfully close to when the low temperature would normally occur but in the summer the low temperature typically occurs closer to 9-10z.

6Z is too close to 9-10Z for it to be constantly double digits too high.  GFS 6Z temps are much closer to reality on these occasions.   But yea its not a perfect science since it is not an hourly map. 

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10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z is too close to 9-10Z for it to be constantly double digits too high.  GFS 6Z temps are much closer to reality on these occasions.   But yea its not a perfect science since it is not an hourly map. 

Indeed, GFS seems to handle radiational cooling a lot better than the EC. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS is much cooler for Independence weekend.   Fantasy land model wise but a significant change at 500MB for early in the weekend. 

As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope.

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS is much cooler for Independence weekend.   Fantasy land model wise but a significant change at 500MB for early in the weekend. 

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

As long as the good stuff keeps showing up on the models, I have hope.

 

C'mon guys, the 4th is supposed to be hot, just like Christmas is supposed to be cold. And I know, this past Christmas Eve was warmish, but...it came with an all day rain.

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