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1 hour ago, sferic said:

I'll take it ! I just have a feeling that they'll be an April Surprise here.


Remember late March 1997  here ?

April fools day... I remember being stuck up in cooks falls/Roscoe having to miss school in the city because 17 was shutdown

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3 hours ago, sferic said:

I'll take it ! I just have a feeling that they'll be an April Surprise here.


Remember late March 1997  here ?

My dad bought his first ever brand new snowmobile at the end of that March. I skipped school the day after the storm and we went riding on 30-36” of snow in April!  

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300 pm update...

The major concern with this period continues to be the
transition  over to snow Wednesday night as temperatures
quickly fall through the 30s behind the cold front.
Precipitation remains likely even after the front passes through
with a surface low deepening over New England, helping to
reinforce cold air advection over our region, and another
shortwave rippling through. Guidance continues to agree on a
potential for a few inches of snow especially southeast of Lake
ontario, where there will be some lake enhancement as snow
showers continue through Thursday. The previous discussion
continues below.

330 am update...
By Wednesday evening temperatures will fall into the 30s. This
drop  in surface temperatures will be accompanied by rapidly
falling temperatures aloft, which is should allow the rain
showers to mix with and change to snow showers during the
evening hours. The changeover will continue into ne PA during
the overnight hours, with the entire area cold enough for snow
by late Wed night/early Thur morning.

The challenge with the cold side of this storm system will be
attempting to determine how much precipitation develops post-
frontal  as a surface low forms and deepens over New England.
At this time there is a signal on the latest ECMWF and CMC...and
has been there consistently through the past several
runs...showing an enhanced band of snow aligned with an area of
Q-vector convergence, strong PVA ahead of a sharp embedded short
wave, and an area of strong divergence aloft in the entrance
region of a 130 kt jet. There is also support from several EC
ensemble runs as well...which increases confidence in
accumulating snow across portions of the forecast area on
Thursday. Will need to keep a close eye on the evolution of this
system as it could have some significant impacts...mainly snow.

We are also watching the potential for a short period cold blast
Thursday night through Friday night with overnight lows
bottoming out in the teens and highs on Fri afternoon only into
the lower to mid 30s. The combination of gusty northwest winds
and cold temperatures will make it feel even cold...and a lot
more like January than April. The cold air pouring into the
region will be Canadian in origin and relatively dry, but still
be cold enough to interact with the warm lake waters and trigger
lake effect snow showers through this period. There is a
concern for additional accumulating lake effect snow southeast
of Lake Ontario through Friday night. The amounts may be limited
by the warm surface temperatures and potentially some sun
during the day. But, still cannot completely rule out
accumulations during the overnight hours.

Any lake effect snow showers should be ending Saturday morning
and  conditions remaining dry through most of the day. However,
there is the potential for a weak wave to move in from the w/nw
later Saturday with another shot of very light rain with
temperatures climbing into the 40s and lower 50s by the
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11 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

06z GFS, ups the potential tally for MBY....


Ok I have to point this out one last time this “winter” season. We have all witnessed different varying issues with models, GFS too fast, shows fantasy storms every 10 days that never happen, Euro was losing storms like it was the Bermuda Triangle...but this one MIGHT be the most confusing...the GFS has a damn love affair with the Syracuse area. Every storm, and this one is no different, it has a shit ton of snow for KSYR that never comes close to fruition...this one shows 22”!!! Lmao I wonder, and it’s a big task, if there’s a way to add up the virtual snow the GFS has forecast for Syracuse. If I were to take a guess it’s well over 300”. Any reason it has this bias?

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I guess NWS has given up on the gfs for the year lol

The progressive pattern of the past week or so will become
temporarily blocked during this period...with a stacked storm system
eventually taking shape over the southern Quebec. This evolution
could include a problematic late season snowstorm for New England
and the Adirondacks...and possibly as far west as the Tug Hill.
Higher confidence will be given to the ensuing lake snows that will
be found across most of the western counties Thursday and Thursday
night. There is relatively high confidence that just about everyone
in the region will pick up at least minor snow accumulations during
this period and possibly a plowable snowfall for the Tug Hill and
areas southeast of both lakes.

Before we get back to winter though...an ana-style cold front will
slowly move through the region on Wednesday. Have bumped pops up a
bit and also changed pcpn from convective to stratiform (all rain).
The changeover to snow Wednesday night has also been changed to
stratiform. Not out of the question that the snow across the Ern
Lake Ontario region could be heavy at times during the second half
of Wednesday night.

As is typically the case...used a blend of ECMWF and Can NH
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