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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Uber-high risk and super-PDS watches then. I'm very greedy and needy with weather. Though...I'd trade no more severe for the rest of the calendar year for a single 36 inch snowstorm IMBY this winter. 

thats terrible. exciting weather all year round for all. 

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Well written afternoon disco by LWX for tomorrow... but haven't seen some of that wording in a long time

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow`s forecast is a challenging one locally. A very strong
MCS is expected to develop over the Upper Midwest/Lower Great
Lakes this evening into tonight. This MCS should eventually
weaken overnight as it moves into a lower CAPE environment over
the Ohio Valley. A remnant outflow boundary/convective debris
will spread over at least northern portions of the area tomorrow
morning, with a connectively enhanced speed max in the 700-500
hPa layer following immediately in its wake. There is a wide
spread of possible solutions in model guidance with respect to
subsequent development of storms across our area tomorrow. Some
solutions try to refire storms along the leading edge of the
remnant outflow as it sweeps eastward across the area. Other
solutions keep this activity suppressed. Other solutions fire
additional storms in the wake of the convective debris. Some
solutions do not.

The environment in the wake of the leftover convective debris as
the convectively enhanced speed max moves overhead is
concerning. Models such as the NAM and Euro spread a belt of
40-50 knot flow in the 700-500 hPa layer over the northern half
of our CWA by around peak heating. If we were to destabilize and
storms were to form in that type of environment, the potential
is there for a significant severe weather event, with very high
winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible. However, there`s
considerable disagreement amongst the various models as to if
and where storms will form in the wake of what`s left of today`s
Upper Midwest system. Strong MCSs are often not handled well by
both the CAMs and global guidance, and any system that forms
today will have a strong influence on our weather for tomorrow.
As a result, confidence in the evolution of storms tomorrow
remains low. Confidence should gradually increase over time as
today`s system gets going and becomes better handled by model
guidance. We`ll continue to refine our forecast for what is a
low confidence, but also potentially high impact severe weather
event tomorrow.
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53 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Uber-high risk and super-PDS watches then. I'm very greedy and needy with weather. Though...I'd trade no more severe for the rest of the calendar year for a single 36 inch snowstorm IMBY this winter. 

I've learned to accept the SVR and Winter climo of the area.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I've learned to accept the SVR and Winter climo of the area.

Honestly - at least from my weenie eyes, I think a ton of the CAMs are a snoozer for most tomorrow around here. Good parameters on some of them - but a relative min on the reflectivity panels. We'll see how that complex evolves tonight. Sure it'll screw us over. 

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23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Honestly - at least from my weenie eyes, I think a ton of the CAMs are a snoozer for most tomorrow around here. Good parameters on some of them - but a relative min on the reflectivity panels. We'll see how that complex evolves tonight. Sure it'll screw us over. 

Read LWX AFD again regarding CAMS. They'll shift 1,000 times through noon tomorrow and it'll drive you insane. If we're socked in at 11am tomorrow, then we'll know to just shrug the event off as another L.

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Read LWX AFD again regarding CAMS. They'll shift 1,000 times through noon tomorrow and it'll drive you insane. If we're socked in at 11am tomorrow, then we'll know to just shrug the event off as another L.

This seems like a likely option. (I'm the new you)

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3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I've learned to accept the SVR and Winter climo of the area.

I'm ok with it.  Funny thing is it all gets built up and *poof* gone just like that.  IME the most memorable events are the ones that catch you like a thief at night, no warning, unexpected.

Bring the wind anytime!  I'm constantly checking our trees and when a threat of damage from unexpected felling exists, it comes down.  Stove is always hungry in the winter, less money for the oil guys and toasty comfort to boot.  Of course my back cries uncle much sooner these days with the bigger logs but we have some plans to deal with that in the foreseeable future.

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32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Right after I sent the message the power went out but luckily has returned, for the time being. Got way gustier than I expected for a few minutes. Still definitely #2, but last few minutes were intense.

Ours is still out.  
 

I might have been out of town for that other storm.  Don’t remember it.  

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