BuffaloWeather

Major LES Events- Feb 5-?

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21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

You think the super res reflectivity is too low res?  It's usually in high sensitivity mode, I haven't found anything better.  I think its great

I’ve been trying to get on board with the wunderground radar but that thing showed rain for most of today...:huh:

not overly detailed but for me this one is h go old enough most of the time...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-48

as for the snow, still snow in the air but probably about done... handful of measurements in the yard gives me a 7” average... I’ll take it... Batavia easily had a foot when I was coming home around noon

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48 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Here come the videos! 40 seconds to the end is complete whiteouts.

 

Actually I think this is my favorite video, The end of it is just insane. I couldn't see anything. I wish I got into the heaviest stuff early this morning. Regret not chasing sooner.

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

You think the super res reflectivity is too low res?  It's usually in high sensitivity mode, I haven't found anything better.  I think its great

I'm just not a fan. During LES it doesn't work as well as Underground or Radar app on iphone for me. I'll give it another shot.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Here come the videos! 40 seconds to the end is complete whiteouts.

 

Ok looking at that video, great stuff as always btw, why did the NWS not place northern Erie under a blizzard warning? I feel like they’ve done it for less and it actually checked all 3 boxes...discuss away...

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Hrrr likes central Oswego county tomorrow evening into Monday..

As usual I'll probably just stick with the RGEM on band placement lol

snku_acc.us_ne - 2021-02-06T204409.246.png

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3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Here come the videos! 40 seconds to the end is complete whiteouts.

 

Great videos! The weather gods must have read my weenie complaining this morning, because that three hour period in the early afternoon including the best daytime LES conditions I have seen in the N Buffalo to Amherst corridor in several years. More than an hour of the 3”/hr whiteout stuff and around 2 hours of heavy 2”/hr snow. I have a three year old who insisted on making a snowman in those conditions. One of these years we’ll get one of those old school Northtowns crushers that sits in place the better part of a day, but this afternoon’s whiteout band mostly made up for the overall bust (we ended up with maybe 10-11” including last night’s minor accumulation). Hitting the February and March snowfall averages might bring us within shouting distance of our 30 year climo average.

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850s down to about-20c tommorow after the front, some guidance showing lake snows in the single digits, could be some real fluff..

850th.us_ne (14).png

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7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

850s down to about-20c tommorow after the front, some guidance showing lake snows in the single digits, could be some real fluff..

850th.us_ne (14).png

Yeah that's the next potential event and could be a massive one. Latest GFS shows more WNW winds after showing WSW/SW for days straight. As this is Eries likely last hurrah, strongly cheering for WSW/SW to get one last strong band going.

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Matches pretty well with the gfs wind field off Ontario (kfzy)..

 

Screenshot_20210206-223722.png

Opps thought you were posting next weeks GFS run. The next few days won't feature too much LES. Next weekend has crazy potential.

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6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Opps thought you were posting next weeks GFS run. The next few days won't feature too much LES. Next weekend has crazy potential.

Great videos BW! That wind!   I prefer the 3-5"/hr. with no wind, but certainly appreciate the harshness the wind adds.

Yeah.  Not much for Erie folks the next few days, but off Ontario, C/S Oswego Co. into Oneida Co. should have a decent window (8-14 hours) for 1-3"/hr. stuff.  At this time it doesn't look like there will be any connection (circulation nor seeding) off Georgian Bay. 

 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Snowfall totals:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

The wind killed the potential for higher amounts. We could have easily seen 20"+ without the winds. Whenever we see high winds in the forecast for LES event we know to cut totals by 25-30%.

Some if these totals look WAY off...1.6 at Clarence center bit 12 at Akron? Nope also [email protected] E. Williamsville bit 9.4 @ NNW Williamsville? 

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Some if these totals look WAY off...1.6 at Clarence center bit 12 at Akron? Nope also [email protected] E. Williamsville bit 9.4 @ NNW Williamsville? 

Yeah when I was in and around Clarence/Akron I definitely saw from 14-15" amounts. Probably no reports there though.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Some if these totals look WAY off...1.6 at Clarence center bit 12 at Akron? Nope also [email protected] E. Williamsville bit 9.4 @ NNW Williamsville? 

Look at the dates. That 1.6” number is from yesterday morning before the band made its way up here. Most of the low numbers are from yesterday morning not this morning. I ended up with 8.7” from the lake effect and another 2.8” this morning for a total of 11.5” in the last 48 hours or so. Up to 56.6” on the season and would only need another 25-30” to hit seasonal average for this area so definitely doable if we can have a good week this week and get almost half that. 

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4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Look at the dates. That 1.6” number is from yesterday morning before the band made its way up here. Most of the low numbers are from yesterday morning not this morning. I ended up with 8.7” from the lake effect and another 2.8” this morning for a total of 11.5” in the last 48 hours or so. Up to 56.6” on the season and would only need another 25-30” to hit seasonal average for this area so definitely doable if we can have a good week this week and get almost half that. 

Agreed. I’m at roughly the same amount I picked up 10.1” and 2.8” for a total of 12.9 and seasonal total is 59.4” (I think it’s a bit more due in part to the first event after Christmas) and I agree one good event synoptic or meso will get us close this year. I’m pretty optimistic, especially with the upcoming pattern. One of these systems will pop in our favor.

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