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January 27th-28th Boom or Bust Snow Event/Obs


John1122
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So for the Eastern areas and actually most of TN today I don't think its temp related. Maybe somewhat but not much.  All 12z models so far change us around the same time. Actually all of them at the exact same between 8-9pm (for my area) same for 06z gfs.

 

The difference is qpf. Here is the precip that falls after the changeover (more or less since we only have 3 hr increments)

Pretty easy to see why hrrr is so snowless. Its not temps. It's inline with others now.  Its the qpf.  The problem is this doesn't make me feel better since the HRRR was the first to steadily show almost no qpf for my area with this last event that busted.

283852377_thisone.gif.b6781f240939e8276622e55479209105.gif

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The problem I believe the SR Model's are seeing regarding moisture is the LP to our SE pulling the moisture closer and into it. I've saw this b4 more than once.

      There is a decent slug that goes thru KY But, as that low cranks a larger area increase and intensifies to our SE therefore creating a weakness or gap of sorts between the two with the Terrain being an aid to that process I believe. 

     Alot of difference I know but, some similarities to the Christmas 2010 snowfall. General 3 to 5" amounts from areas to our west then, transfer/ strengthening Southern LP created that weakness and the area between the 2 saw lighter amounts. 2.7" at my home. KTRI  an inch.

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925 mb surface analysis looks ok:

T4kY7vQ.png

 

N or NW flow across most of TN, even eastern valley areas..

But 850 mb looks a wee bit worse:

xomLGu4.png

WSW or SW flow. 

 

I still think areas around TRI (especially Bristol to Abingdon and NE on 81 and even Johnson County and Elizabethton and maybe even Unicoi) will do ok, but not sure I can see much for SW of Fall Branch.

Hopefully I'm wrong, I would love even a dusting or mood flakes. 

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20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

925 mb surface analysis looks ok:

T4kY7vQ.png

 

N or NW flow across most of TN, even eastern valley areas..

But 850 mb looks a wee bit worse:

xomLGu4.png

WSW or SW flow. 

 

I still think areas around TRI (especially Bristol to Abingdon and NE on 81 and even Johnson County and Elizabethton and maybe even Unicoi) will do ok, but not sure I can see much for SW of Fall Branch.

Hopefully I'm wrong, I would love even a dusting or mood flakes. 

Going to be close but temps are flaming hot at the surface and all 12z models are backing off. Most of the heavy precip is moving out before temps can get cold enough.  Just one of those events.

This stronger low is going to deliver the goods to our friends over in NC though. We will catch the next one :lol:

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Wind's cranking up here now, WNW 15 mph with gusts to 20. Some of the plateau weather stations in Cumberland County are dropping pretty quick and some places like Pickett and Fentress never warmed as much. Think it is too much to overcome for MBY, but I guess we'll see. My general area has dropped 6 - 10 degrees in the past couple of hours. 

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