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January 7 - 8 ULL potential


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Just now, PowellVolz said:

Are you kidding me MRX? What in the world.....

“For this forecast, have continued to
stick closer to the GEFs and SREF plumes mean numbers,


.

Yeah, I might be wrong here but isn't the GFS sorta crappy with dynamic driven systems like this?

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Just now, Dsty2001 said:

MRX does their typical play it conservative thing.  Not sure that is a good idea in this situation

Not for TRI!

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
351 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021

TNZ016-017-039-040-042-044-046-070-071-073-VAZ008-080500-
/O.EXB.KMRX.WS.W.0001.210108T0600Z-210109T0000Z/
Hawkins-Sullivan-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Washington-Northwest Carter-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
North Sevier-
Including the cities of Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN,
South Holston Dam, Alpha, Morristown, Russellville, Bybee,
Newport, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Jefferson City,
Strawberry Plains, Chestnut Hill, Dandridge, White Pine,
Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Harrisburg, Kodak, McMahan,
Sevierville, Seymour, Pigeon Forge, Benhams, Bristol VA,
and Abingdon
351 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches, with increased amounts possible in the higher
  elevations.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/mrx.
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Pretty long disco by MRX this PM, out now, prefaced by:

"

I`ll start this discussion off with the disclaimer that even though
snowfall is only about 12-24 hours away, there is still low
confidence in this forecast due to the WIDE range of model
solutions. There are several things to take into consideration with
this forecast, and anyone of them could cause the forecast to bust."
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Thinking out loud here.... didn’t we have a similar setup several years ago with a rain/snow/rain ULL predictions but north of 40, downsloping and a NE surface wind caused a CAD in the valley up against the Cumberland Plateau that kept most of it snow? Seems like I ended up with 8” in N Knox Co.


.

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About to get this:

 

 

probably too dry at the lower levels though

 

Right on the edge of higher returns so far it's virga, but it seems to might be having an impact on temp though that could also be the setting sun.

 

02068cae1ba41ed1eb0b90de44260334.jpg&key=55e349dda98abb9da720ab0a92010ff8ab39561f35ab7cc96c7e479c1bfd7b6c

 

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Right on the edge of higher returns so far it's virga, but it seems to might be having an impact on temp though that could also be the setting sun.
 
02068cae1ba41ed1eb0b90de44260334.jpg&key=55e349dda98abb9da720ab0a92010ff8ab39561f35ab7cc96c7e479c1bfd7b6c
 
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Are you concerned on the plateau?


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Definitely dry air to overcome. No precip but heavy virga. I know it sounds strange but it just feels colder under virga in the winter.dc761bcd50fb3423404d9dcd34033b7c.jpg&key=33a60fb84fd83566534bb811969a2cb756e96df3d72ddf148dce1a1039608b1f
 
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Wouldn’t be surprised to have flurries above 3k feet in that band.


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Just now, ShawnEastTN said:

A friend of mine in Columbia TN reports half-dollar flakage.

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Just getting ready to post that.  Seems like several areas in West TN and western middle have changed over.

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