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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.

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12z Euro is looking really good at 500 with a healthy wave entering west Texas at hour 96.  Not a lot showing at that time that would mess with it (i.e. crush it) as it swings east.  Should produce a decent system

 

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Surface responds between 96 and 108 with precip blossoming over Texas and the gulf coast, spawning a surface low in the northwest gulf.  Snow breaking out in most of east Texas and western Louisiana at this time.

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System scooting east in the northern gulf and by 126 snow is falling in most of Arkansas.  Euro shows light rains in most of Mississippi and Alabama.

By 132 the low is in southern Alabama with snow/mix in northwest MS and snow/mix in or near Memphis.  Still snowing in much of Arkansas at this time.

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There is an interaction with the main vort and a secondary vort at 500, around hour 108-120, that causes the trough to go negative and ends up raining on most of Tennessee 138-150 (though parts of TN may start as snow or mix).  

There is yet another vort that enters the picture, also in the northern stream between 138 and 144, further complicating an already complicated picture. 

Long story short, the system looks to be there............. but how the northern stream interacts/disrupts is likely going to lead to much wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst meteorologists and hobbyists alike.  This could break bad or good and forecasts beyond 3-4 days should be taken with a boulder of salt.

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This edition of PBP was interrupted by an uninvited guest at just the wrong time.  Remove that weird vort dance at 500mb between 108-126 and the surface would have likely been snowing/mixing in much of Tennessee too.   

Side note.  My PBP's might go back into hibernation after that attempt. lol

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From what 500 looked at around day 3 I would have thought this was going to play out MUCH better than it did.  I am guessing there will be numerous 12z euro individual ensembles that get the job done.

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Actually feeling better about wave 2 now. No doubt could go a few ways but we at least have a shot and something to watch. Heck even wave 1 will be fun watching, I am sure higher elevations will get something from it if nobody else does.

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1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

Really hard for me to believe this is a rain system for Tennesseans early next week..... 9d9ba4514818191d2e504390104f48a3.jpg


.

Yeah.  When we’re banana’d by a couple 1030 highs, I see your point...

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The GFS is still suppressing wave two but it's much further north than earlier runs. Now it has a wave 3 similar to Christmas with cold catching moisture and snow falling for the next 24 hours or so behind an arctic front. 

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Long time lurker here, decided to finally sign up, I enjoy all the commentary you guys bring.

I’m from North west Mississippi, we have been in a snow drought as of late, been a while since a good winter storm has hit my area, really hoping that changes soon, maybe as soon as next weeK.

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10 minutes ago, Tobiewx said:

Long time lurker here, decided to finally sign up, I enjoy all the commentary you guys bring.

I’m from North west Mississippi, we have been in a snow drought as of late, been a while since a good winter storm has hit my area, really hoping that changes soon, maybe as soon as next weeK.

Glad you're here. I hope you guys get nailed like the models are showing. The Canadian builds a glacier in Mississippi. 

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