Daniel Boone Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I've often wondered, how our area in the great Valley would fare snowfall wise if the mountains were a couple thousand feet lower or if our Valley was a couple thousand feet higher and their elevations as are. I'm sure we'd average more either way. What if the mountains weren't there at all ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just an oddball item of interest, but the ICON digs the second storm waaayyyy down into the Gulf. I would love to see that, just to see a low take a track like that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 I did a point and click sounding over N. Roane county for the 8 - 9 storm on the 12z GFS (not the one above): Shows rain, but sounding guesses snow. I'm not super hopeful for my location to see much accum., but would be nice to see some fat flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Para-GFS looks colder: I like when the snow shows up as purple, lol! That run looks good for S. Middle TN: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 And the GFS says areas that miss out on this one (eastern great valley), will get in on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Para-GFS looks colder: I like when the snow shows up as purple, lol! That run looks good for S. Middle TN: Looks decent for hardeman county, I’ll take it! all the southern border counties for west and middle Tn should like that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, AMZ8990 said: Looks decent for hardeman county, I’ll take it! all the southern border counties for west and middle Tn should like that look. Those areas seem to get left out a lot, so it would be nice for them to get in on this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 12z updated... Such a range of options from the 12z suite for the 8/9th system. Going to depend on the angle that the systems takes. The GFS is very progressive and does a near loop to loop over Arkansas. To me, the para looks very realistic and matches the ICON very well. The CMC is a bit strung out. This is almost like trying to predict where a hurricane makes landfall while running parallel to the coast. The slightest degree of change in regards to angle of entry....changes forecasts by dozens and dozens of miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 CMC looks like a colder version of the OP GFS (COD maps chosen since they have the most blue on them): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: And the GFS says areas that miss out on this one (eastern great valley), will get in on the next one. Dang near a perfect track. Not worried about minor details at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Second storm is going to be tough to forecast. The system for the 8th has trended SE over time. Modeling is struggling with the block right now. Like BNA says, just get the track right, and we will worry about the rest later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Wonder what the third one will look like? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Second storm is going to be tough to forecast. The system for the 8th has trended SE over time. Modeling is struggling with the block right now. Like BNA says, just get the track right, and we will worry about the rest later.As long as we are tracking something south of us at this point that’s all we can ask for. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Wonder what the third one will look like? Wow.... we will land one of them. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 So far today's colder than forecast. Models may continue to trend down(hopefully) with the temps for the upcoming systems. If so, we all know what the outcome would be. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: As long as we are tracking something south of us at this point that’s all we can ask for. . Debatable whether the second system will be south of us. The 12z CMC is not. I don't trust the GFS with the first system, and that first system sets the wave pattern that will allow the second system to cut or go underneath. I would think both systems go south, but absolutely not written in stone yet for the second. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Wow.... we will land one of them. . Awfully close to calling for a big dog... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Again, I think we need to be very careful with the GFS. It trended a system from WV to nearly Colorado last week. Right now, the trend could be the opposite. I don't think it is handling the block well. The 12z GFS Para on Pivotal looks a lot more reasonable. As soon as one see the loop to loop(GFS regular) in Arkansas for the first system...have to think that solution is less likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Para was closer to the CMC for the second system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Awfully close to calling for a big dog... This usually doesn't work out well, but I like your boldness.... haha I never thought we'd work into something this quickly. I am excited to see where the pattern heads and already having multiple periods to track is a great....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, tnweathernut said: I never thought we'd work into something this quickly. I'm surprised too. Y'all may make me a believer in the power of NAOs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Debatable whether the second system will be south of us. The 12z CMC is not. I don't trust the GFS with the first system, and that first system sets the wave pattern that will allow the second system to cut or go underneath. I would think both systems go south, but absolutely not written in stone yet for the second. You could have stopped here and I'd have been on board. It's a pretty wretched model. Good point on the HUGE adjustments on a recent system. The move it made from having snow here to actually snowing in west Texas to Missouri was a colossal jump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The 12z CMC actually cuts the second system through middle TN. Would be a great track for west TN. While I am unsure about NE TN, does look like the somebody in the subform may score with one or both of the next two systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Debatable whether the second system will be south of us. The 12z CMC is not. I don't trust the GFS with the first system, and that first system sets the wave pattern that will allow the second system to cut or go underneath. I would think both systems go south, but absolutely not written in stone yet for the second. Good point, especially with the Canadian doing that. The Canadian suite has performed well this fall/winter. However, I still think what u alluded to yesterday has merrit regarding model's adjusting to strong blocking. Just not alot that's been ingested in them regarding that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 And let me say, some GREAT trends on modeling at 12z! I just don't trust the GFS right now. Toggle(back in time) the first system as it goes through North Carolina - just all over the place. That said, the GFS has not been terrible until last week. Certainly looks like modeling wants to produce a Miller A for system two. Just with seven days to go, going to be tough to nail down a system while modeling is still adjusting to the block. Again though, good trends. As expected at this range...details are still up for grabs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And let me say, some GREAT trends on modeling at 12z! I just don't trust the GFS right now. Toggle(back in time) the first system as it goes through North Carolina - just all over the place. That said, the GFS has not been terrible until last week. Certainly looks like modeling wants to produce a Miller A for system two. Just with seven days to go, going to be tough to nail down a system while modeling is still adjusting to the block. Again though, good trends. As expected at this range...details are still up for grabs. I think we'd all like to see the traditional GFS go progressive and further SE for storm 2. At least when we see this we know the usual correction is coming... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Again, I think we need to be very careful with the GFS. It trended a system from WV to nearly Colorado last week. Right now, the trend could be the opposite. I don't think it is handling the block well. The 12z GFS Para on Pivotal looks a lot more reasonable. As soon as one see the loop to loop(GFS regular) in Arkansas for the first system...have to think that solution is less likely. That loop to loop feature showing on the (GFS regular) has popped up multiple times this winter. I Wonder if there is an underlying issue within the model that’s causing that feature to show up so frequently this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: That loop to loop feature showing on the (GFS regular) has popped up multiple times this winter. I Wonder if there is an underlying issue within the model that’s causing that feature to show up so frequently this year. Has it actually verified? I don't the answer to that. LOL. Sometimes systems with very little steering current will do that. Sometimes modeling just doesn't know where to put the low. It happens sometimes with systems when they hit the benchmark for NE winter storms. Hey, maybe Memphis is the new winter storm benchmark! In all seriousness, good luck to you west TN folks getting something. You all have definitely waiter your turn! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I'm surprised too. Y'all may make me a believer in the power of NAOs... I told tnweathernut the other day that we are about to go old school. LOL! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Has it actually verified? I don't the answer to that. LOL. Sometimes systems with very little steering current will do that. Sometimes modeling just doesn't know where to put the low. It happens sometimes with systems when they hit the benchmark for NE winter storms. Hey, maybe Memphis is the new winter storm benchmark! In all seriousness, good luck to you west TN folks getting something. You all have definitely waiter your turn! Shoot naw it hasn’t, just remembered seeing it on a GFS forecast for a system we tracked a few weeks back. Just thought it was odd we were seeing it multiple times on the GFS this year. And I hope so man, been a long 3 years without snow!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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