John1122 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Modeling has one common theme this year. Looks bad/warm long range. Slowly corrects towards something workable as we get closer in time. We've went from warm until the mid month period while we wait on the SSW to moving two possible snow events inside the D10 timeframe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 45 minutes ago, John1122 said: Modeling has one common theme this year. Looks bad/warm long range. Slowly corrects towards something workable as we get closer in time. We've went from warm until the mid month period while we wait on the SSW to moving two possible snow events inside the D10 timeframe. Yep. The CMC is considerably colder than the GFS at 12z...have a feeling the GFS is playing catchup even if the CMC is biased a bit cold. Makes me wonder if the MJO is playing too big of a factor in its(GEFS) algorithms vs the NAO block. Oddly, one thing with has not verified is the monster NAO which has been been modeled. The -NAO is there but has not been to the extreme modeling has shown...but I have a feeling it is about to maybe meet those expectations during the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 49 minutes ago, John1122 said: Modeling has one common theme this year. Looks bad/warm long range. Slowly corrects towards something workable as we get closer in time. We've went from warm until the mid month period while we wait on the SSW to moving two possible snow events inside the D10 timeframe. Also, I remember modeling was steadfast in December that the 18th would be the beginning of a big warm-up...and it snowed on the 24th. LOL. I like this type of "push back" of the pattern. It is usually the other way around. Wonder if NAO winters feature "warm that never takes hold" because modeling just hasn't had to deal with it very often during winter. I suspect modern era modeling has been developed when the base state for winter is normally a +NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 UKMET has it's own little idea for next week: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Will be interesting to see what kind of AN departures get built prior to the 8th. Yesterday at TRI we were +13.5 for Jan 1. Right now, were are already at 60. Will be fun to see if those can get erased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 That first oddball system the Ukie shows, is actually within NAM range and it has some precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Ukie drops 6 - 9" on Roan Mt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Additionally, TRI finished -0.4 for the month of December with 4.6" of snow at the airport. Precip was 0.15 AN(thought that might be higher). Last December was +5.7F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: That first oddball system the Ukie shows, is actually within NAM range and it has some precip too. That is Jax's bowling ball system. Just kind of bowls underneath....I have had my eye on that one for a bit - nice synoptics but lacking in cold. The CMC almost did some good things with that. Wonder if it will trend north with time or feel the block and trend south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Euro has that system too and gets 4 - 6 on Roan. The set up is interesting with the energy diving in from the NW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Euro has that system too and gets 4 - 6 on Roan. The set up is interesting with the energy diving in from the NW: If the southern stream energy were to check-up and slow down OR the northern stream catch-up...big storm. What is right behind it has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is Jax's bowling ball system. Just kind of bowls underneath.... I'm kind of interested in the energy diving in behind it. It's not really wound up, but the block scoots it such a way as to kinda sorta schmaybe have a negative lean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 At 141 on the Euro 12z, that little bowling ball on the 8th is a bit further south as it enters the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: What is right behind it has my attention. Yeah the first bit is more of academic interest, in that I don't foresee it doing much (although you never know). That next one looks bulky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I'm kind of interested in the energy diving in behind it. It's not really wound up, but the block scoots it in kinda sorta schmaybe have a negative lean... With six days to go, still a lot of movement possible. Almost seems like modeling can't decide between the 8/9 system or the 10/11 system in terms of which one to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Crazy thing, this "could" move substantially NW over time and amp up. Anything substantially to our south or SE has to be watched due to models bringing things back so much NW at the last minute. We will see the big NAO reverses the NW trend with past systems to a more SE suppressed trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Great pass for the energy, but nary a snowflake outside of I'd say 3000' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Man, Holston, I may be taking apples and oranges. I really need to look at the dates/times. You are talking the Tuesday deal? Sorry, I was talking Jan 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Great pass for the energy, but nary a snowflake outside of I'd say 3000' Something to keep an eye on. The 12z Euro is actually SE of its previous run. Will be interesting to see if that comes back NW or if the block is being felt now - good test. The CMC was super close to something good. Almost looks like it is lacking precip for that vigorous of a vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: You are talking the Tuesday deal? Sorry, I was talking Jan 8-9. I was talking about both. That Ukie run first got my attention for theTuesday deal (more from an interest in that oddball synoptic evolution) and interest in the Jan 8 - 9 for it's bowling ball potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Parallel GFS gave some areas a decent storm around hr 200: I mention it, because it looks like the Euro will have a similar result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Parallel GFS gave some areas a decent storm around hr 200: I mention it, because it looks like the Euro will have a similar result. That is the @tnweathernut window. LOL. Yeah, that looks really good on modeling. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 IF we can hold that pattern, should be one after another in terms of things to track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 56 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Also, I remember modeling was steadfast in December that the 18th would be the beginning of a big warm-up...and it snowed on the 24th. LOL. I like this type of "push back" of the pattern. It is usually the other way around. Wonder if NAO winters feature "warm that never takes hold" because modeling just hasn't had to deal with it very often during winter. I suspect modern era modeling has been developed when the base state for winter is normally a +NAO. Bingo! I believe u hit the Nail on the head . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Beauty of a Rockies to EC trough post 300 on the 12z EPS. Same feature that has been there for days, but deeper. If we see that persists, that is a good signal that particular trough at 500 will be quite a bit stronger. The EPO ridge is also better positioned and a bit stronger. Good look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The 18z GEFS appears to have gotten the message - for no. Good run. One chance right after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Para GFS opens up the arctic gates: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Para GFS opens up the arctic gates: Quintessential Nina cold pattern - meaning some Ninas are warm, but that is how it looks when cold. Cold lays NW to SE. Winter storms attack the base. Great find! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 Very cold northern hemisphere on the 18z GFS-Para as Holston notes...-30s at the very end of its run into North Dakota. That will probably change in future runs one way or another. That said, we want to see that type of cold showing up periodically on modeling during the next week. Saw some hints this morning that the flow was reversing late in the d14-16 time frame. So, seeing a slight rend towards some extremes just after the middle of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Very cold northern hemisphere on the 18z GFS-Para as Holston notes...-30s at the very end of its run into North Dakota. That will probably change in future runs one way or another. That said, we want to see that type of cold showing up periodically on modeling during the next week. Saw some hints this morning that the flow was reversing late in the d14-16 time frame. So, seeing a slight rend towards some extremes just after the middle of the month. Honestly, Canada being warm(ish) right now is the only thing keeping us from an I-10 storm threat as opposed to I-40. I’ll never wish to see warmer air but I’m genuinely concerned about suppression with what we’re seeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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