• Member Statistics

    16,542
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    nyrangers1022
    Newest Member
    nyrangers1022
    Joined
yoda

January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Just thinking out loud....the cold generally underperforms here. My guess there will be some relaxation to those extreme pushes.

Plus that cold push is ok so long as the blocking relaxes slowly (odds favor that given the current pattern). It’s as the blocking pattern relaxes but a cold antecedent airmass is left in place that our BEST windows come.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Plus that cold push is ok so long as the blocking relaxes slowly (odds favor that given the current pattern). It’s as the blocking pattern relaxes but a cold antecedent airmass is left in place that our BEST windows come.  

I don't think some of these guys are going to make it

  • Haha 8
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared  we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate.  One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth  between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared  we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate.  One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth  between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch 

so it's your prediction that it will snow between the 15th and the 20th then we flip warm for the rest of the winter? 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

meaning there hasn't been a good pattern yet and it was stated quite clearly that post January 15th and later was our better shot not January 8th. Full diaper?

I know, I know, just testing the waters on future whining.  All I know is that I am currently winning the snowfall contest, and I am not happy about it!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared  we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate.  One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth  between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch 

It’s obvious you don’t look at the guidance and are responding to what you read from weenies online.  There was maybe a 24 hour period back before Xmas where the euro and GFS (CMC never bought it) head faked a faster progression to a -NAO. But other then that one day NWP always pegged a flip to a -NAO as being around Jan 5 and a flip to a colder and more snow friendly regime AFTER January 10-15.  People are just impatient and jumping on every long shot wild fantasy possibility before then. The guidance NEVER indicated a snowstorm in the last 2 weeks.  There was a random run or two where one outlier operational run showed some snow and weenies jumped on it. But that is NOT a guidance failure.  A true snowstorm signal is when a majority of guidance across multiple consecutive runs shows it.  Like right now...the UKMET shows snow Friday. But every other run misses. The guidance is NOT predicting snow. It’s predicting a miss. But some weenie will post that one UK run snow map and then you will proclaim guidance was wrong.  Guidance wasn’t wrong...you simply don’t know how to use it properly.  Now I will be awaiting your post telling me how you weren’t talking to me and I shouldn’t respond to you because your wisdom is above reproach. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know @psuhoffman posted some 12z EPS h5 charts last page... but this is also nice to see (h/t @griteater )

23 minutes ago, griteater said:

Impressive look developing at the end on the EPS Mean here with heavy west based -NAO via Davis Strait ridging and deep blues off the Canadian Maritimes / and removal of Gulf of Alaska Low (Jan 12-19)

z8UGhSk.gif

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared  we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate.  One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth  between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch 

Whether or not we go to "constant warmth" from mid month onward remains to be seen however as of this current moment there is absolutely zero evidence that supports that prediction.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

This whole Stratospheric Warming Event is gonna be one of the most overhyped bust in memory (for the eastern U.S.)

Like just about every other time it's hyped?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Like just about every other time it's hyped?

we got a mid Dec snowstorm just by weather happening. It got cold and there was a storm to the south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s obvious you don’t look at the guidance and are responding to what you read from weenies online.  There was maybe a 24 hour period back before Xmas where the euro and GFS (CMC never bought it) head faked a faster progression to a -NAO. But other then that one day NWP always pegged a flip to a -NAO as being around Jan 5 and a flip to a colder and more snow friendly regime AFTER January 10-15.  People are just impatient and jumping on every long shot wild fantasy possibility before then. The guidance NEVER indicated a snowstorm in the last 2 weeks.  There was a random run or two where one outlier operational tun showed some snow and weenies jumped on it. But that is NOT a guidance failure.  A true snowstorm signal is when a majority of guidance across multiple consecutive runs shows it.  Like right now...the UKMET shows snow Friday. But every other run misses. To guidance is NOT predicting snow. It’s predicting a miss. But some weenie will post that I be UK run snow map and then you will proclaim guidance was wrong.  Guidance wasn’t wrong...you simply don’t know how to use it properly.  Now I will be awaiting your post telling me how you weren’t talking to me and I shouldn’t respond to you because your wisdom is above reproach. 

Almost every discussion has focused on the period near mid month forward of being one that could provide several opportunities. Ignoring the cliff jumpers who expected a blizzard already, is there anything that has surfaced recently that gives you reason to question whether the pattern still looks favorable for us down the road? To me that’s more important than agonizing over model runs for this weekends snow/ no snow event. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Delayed but not denied is an excuse laden fallacy and I declared  we were in trouble when it started up. This is about projected storm #7 with one of them sort of confirming. Apparently the vendors who buy the product are satisfied with a 14% confirmation rate.  One of these will hit before the flip to constant warmth  between 1/15-1/20. It’s actually been generally chilly for Dec and Jan but just not cold enough and certainly not +5 to +10 blowtorch 

Just so I’m clear. You are claiming that an undefined conglomerate of meteorologists forecasts were collectively precisely 14 percent wrong over an undefined time period. I’m just trying to follow your scientific logic here... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone complaining about no cold recently gonna be crying about too much soon watch...

D03AC355-ED10-4F3D-A280-15B9FC4E5364.thumb.png.514a49161bcb8d5dfe69a7403b40dfac.png49201E4E-8077-47EB-9FF7-31E7B592F112.thumb.png.feb510609663e54156ea1776116a8fd2.png

 

Bring it!

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Week 1 might be a bit too much blocking...

3E6F64A2-B5CD-4509-B481-CB52B0EAA0EE.thumb.png.60c5abd8acf808f144ae7c06a04d1e14.png

but week 2 everything is exactly where we want imo.  
7C8D8C34-1E67-4DD7-9D34-E0D463D0A97C.thumb.png.b53610b380ab16ab81cba228462cf7da.png

And it’s typical we score as blocking relaxes not as it peaks. If we can’t score with that look...

 

People have been touting this frame as an ideal pattern. And it is a good look (if it happens) but that flow is fast coming off the Atlantic, and the look (verbatim) is more indicative of suppression. I’d like to see that ensemble mean hint at more blocked flow and not so progressive 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Almost every discussion has focused on the period near mid month forward of being one that could provide several opportunities. Ignoring the cliff jumpers who expected a blizzard already, is there anything that has surfaced recently that gives you reason to question whether the pattern still looks favorable for us down the road? To me that’s more important than agonizing over model runs for this weekends snow/ no snow event. 

No everything still looks on track. And everything is progressing on the timeline as expected. If anything the progression is ahead of schedule.

Imo the issue is people are impatient and because blocking is setting in within the next 48 hours we can now see the first couple waves within a reasonable lead on guidance. But we’re still at the inception of this blocking pattern and some because it’s been so long since they had snow are already treating each model run like we’re 48 hours before a big storm and living and dying emotionally on every little turn.  It’s way too soon for that. A high probability discreet threat hasn’t come in range yet. Perhaps Jan 12 becomes that. If it does I bet we see signs in the next 48 hours as it breaches the 150 lead. That seems to be the magic spot where guidance starts to hone in on synoptic level generalities lately.  But getting tore up over changes on 180 hour progs isn’t productive.  Other then looking at the Friday system and seeing if that changes at all I am still just peeking at the ensembles each run to see how the longwave pattern is progressing. Everything after Friday is still out of range for the emotional turmoil people are putting themselves through. 

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Bring it!

People have been touting this frame as an ideal pattern. And it is a good look (if it happens) but that flow is fast coming off the Atlantic, and the look (verbatim) is more indicative of suppression. I’d like to see that ensemble mean hint at more blocked flow and not so progressive 

I’m not sure what you mean. We need suppressed. Just not too much. But frankly the difference between a DC or a VA/NC border snowstorm is too subtle to show up on a 7 day h5 hemisphere view mean. I could show you a 7 day mean from a DC snow period and a Richmond to Raleigh one and you probably couldn’t tell the difference.  That’s just a chance we have to take.  Let me post the mean of DCs 15 snowiest winters one more time to compare. 
 

0FC915ED-A8C2-430B-9E46-6CEAAB1C05D6.png.3686c669cce6888de153f0460cd966c9.png
this is a 5 day mean from the EPS centered day 10-15

D1E2A60A-F73F-48C4-904D-F15D2EBE042F.thumb.png.bcd3c6fb4a822e79bc5d6e3ff6fe6d1a.png


 

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I heard this weekend looks like 2018. Any truth to that?

Don’t know where you’ve heard that from. Not a single mention of it here 

  • Haha 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everything after Friday is still out of range for the emotional turmoil people are putting themselves through. 

A weenies's therapist,  I love it ! 

I personally feel happier reading that.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan.

I won't mention where it goes from there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not sure what you mean. We need suppressed. Just not too much. But frankly the difference between a DC or a VA/NC border snowstorm is too subtle to show up on a 7 day h5 hemisphere view mean. I could show you a 7 day mean from a DC snow period and a Richmond to Raleigh one and you probably couldn’t tell the difference.  That’s just a chance we have to take.  Let me post the mean of DCs 15 snowiest winters one more time to compare. 
 

this is a 5 day mean from the EPS centered week 2

That's essentially a carbon copy of our snowiest pattern.  It would take an insane amount of bad luck (even for mid-atlantic standards) not to see a warning-level event in that pattern, as depicted.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CAPE said:

New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan.

I won't mention where it goes form there. 

Oh go ahead and mention it..you know you will anyway.  

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BristowWx said:

Oh go ahead and mention it..you know you will anyway.  

Just think typical Nina. Or what PSU has been fearing.

Good thing is, its pretty much crap beyond 2 weeks(after the run it initializes on).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

New edition of the Euro Weeklies continue from the previous version with a decidedly colder look the last half of Jan.

I won't mention where it goes from there. 

into February?

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Just think typical Nina. Or what PSU has been fearing.

Good thing is, its pretty much crap beyond 2 weeks(after the run it initializes on).

So this week is week 4 of a weekly run 4 weeks ago...how did it do?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HH Gefs has a bit higher hieghts out ahead of the weekend system.  Definitely a bump nw in lp.

Probably because it rotates the 50/50 low more north if not nw compared to 12z allowing for some higher heights to build . Nothing earth shattering but it's there 

100 hours before it hits the NC coast.  This kid isn't giving up tracking on a threat that's forecast to not hit till Friday night.  It's only Monday :whistle:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.