Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Todd on WIVB is saying 3-6 fir the synoptic for far WNY and an additional foot for all of Erie including metro and both burbs north and south...that’s already 12”-18” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm just talking in terms of snowfall distribution, not impact. This will not be as big as that. But I think all of Erie county have 1-2' by Sunday afternoon. I don’t think it’s out of the possibility if we get 3” hour rates to see a top 10 daily at KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I don’t think it’s out of the possibility if we get 3” hour rates to see a top 10 daily at KBUF Definitely possible Fri Night into Sat Am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 When GFS shows a band like this you know its serious. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Is there a separate topic for anyone outside of Erie county, or is the event confined to Erie County only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: When GFS shows a band like this you know its serious. 3/3 on the 18 runs for huge hits! GFS gives everyone in Erie County some lovin with that! Foot county wide with 2’+ strip somewhere in north central Erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, schinz said: Is there a separate topic for anyone outside of Erie county, or is the event confined to Erie County only? Fell free... but I think this room is currently filled with a half dozen Buffalo snow junkies going bonkers right now! lol... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I know we touched on this but where the hell does pivotal have KBUF on the map. 98% of Erie County is showing over 12”, with 30” max in the bullseye... Downtown and Airport locations would both be in the 16-20” range... Where are they pulling 7.9” from? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, schinz said: Is there a separate topic for anyone outside of Erie county, or is the event confined to Erie County only? There is it’s just the Upstate/ Eastern NY discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Awfully quiet on here for a pretty decent event only 48 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Awfully quiet on here for a pretty decent event only 48 hours out... We just don’t wanna jinx it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Awfully quiet on here for a pretty decent event only 48 hours out... Just waiting for the nightly runs to start up... Not much more to do at this point... The wife claims we’re going to wrap gifts tonight once the kids are asleep. Doubt that so model watching and beers! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 More like 60 hours til the lake effect starts and that’s a long long time in model land for lake effect. We need to be within 24-36 hours before I feel confident about anything. I want to see the 3k NAM and even the BTV WRF and the WRF NMM and ARW and that’s not until we’re 36-48 hours out except for the 3k NAM at 60 hrs. The mesoscale models will be far more useful than the globals. The global show the general placement and the potential but the mesoscale models will fine tune all the details but we’re not even within range of those yet. I feel like it seems like it’s taking forever to get to the event because they issued the watch so dang early lol so we’re all waiting for them to turn it to a warning but it’s taking forever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: More like 60 hours til the lake effect starts and that’s a long long time in model land for lake effect. We need to be within 24-36 hours before I feel confident about anything. We should be pretty confident that the r ent will happen... in my mind (frightening) this may never get below the Buffalo south towns...reminds me of January 2019. We had about 24” in the north towns and the entire time the band was to be on the move, never happened. There are a lot of signals this may be a metro event meandering north and south from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: More like 60 hours til the lake effect starts and that’s a long long time in model land for lake effect. We need to be within 24-36 hours before I feel confident about anything. I want to see the 3k NAM and even the BTV WRF and the WRF NMM and ARW and that’s not until we’re 36-48 hours out except for the 3k NAM at 60 hrs. The mesoscale models will be far more useful than the globals. The global show the general placement and the potential but the mesoscale models will fine tune all the details but we’re not even within range of those yet. I feel like it seems like it’s taking forever to get to the event because they issued the watch so dang early lol so we’re all waiting for them to turn it to a warning but it’s taking forever. BTV went offline 12/7... RIP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: We should be pretty confident that the r ent will happen... in my mind (frightening) this may never get below the Buffalo south towns...reminds me of January 2019. We had about 24” in the north towns and the entire time the band was to be on the move, never happened. There are a lot of signals this may be a metro event meandering north and south from time to time. This one forecasted the max over KBUF though. I think I had 18" in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This one forecasted the max over KBUF though. I think I had 18" in this one. I think what it was for me is maybe the in-house models of the local Mets all said “ shifting south, southward drift” and for about 20 hours it never did. This event has a similar look to it with the map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I think what it was for me is maybe the in-house models of the local Mets all said “ shifting south, southward drift” and for about 20 hours it never did. This event has a similar look to it with the map above. Do you have the write up for that event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 00z NAM jackpots Niagara County. Winds back even further as the storm heads a little bit further NW over Ontario. Certainly an option on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 NAM not looking to great for synoptic or LES. Likely doesn't get the band north to Metro until really late Friday night. Definitely a step back from other model runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM not looking to great for synoptic or LES. Likely doesn't get the band north to Metro until really late Friday night. Definitely a step back from other model runs Band is already north of the city in Niagara County by 4pm Friday lol. Do agree there’s almost nothing synoptically for anyone in NY State besides an inch or two in Chautauqua County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Buffalo transition zone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Band is already north of the city in Niagara County by 4pm Friday lol. Do agree there’s almost nothing synoptically for anyone in NY State besides an inch or two in Mayville haha. Previous runs had band going much earlier, friday morning....that band is now in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Previous runs had band going much earlier, friday morning.... The 18z run had the exact same timing on the band. South of Buffalo still at 1pm and north of it by 4pm. Only difference is the storm is a bit west so the band ends up a little further to the north of BUF than 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It’s literally almost identical wrt band placement. If anything the band is a bit north of 18z run at same time frame moving into metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 52 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: BTV went offline 12/7... RIP... Just saw this post. Big time bummer. That model was usually way overdone with QPF but I found it often had a good handle on the placement of the bands especially on SW flow events. Do you know of any other good mesoscale models like that run out of any other WFO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: The 18z run had the exact same timing on the band. South of Buffalo still at 1pm and north of it by 4pm. My guess is it won’t make it much past the Erie-Niagara county boarded. There is a strong convergence that should set up somewhere in far northern Erie-southern Niagara which would not allow the band to move much further north...heaviest snows occur right where that convergence is but will have a wider band south of it with somewhat “lighter snows” I still like 1 foot plus over all of Erie and now maybe southern Niagara as well. I still think this is not much of a southern Erie event at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Personal opinion is the NAM is to amped/west.. Especially considering the usual amped SREF members are east of the NAM..I guess only time will tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: It’s literally almost identical wrt band placement. If anything the band is a bit north of 18z run at same time frame moving into metro. This is why we don't use the NAM LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: It’s literally almost identical wrt band placement. If anything the band is a bit north of 18z run at same time frame moving into metro. Now shift that band 5 to 10 miles north due to warmer lake waters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now