hazwoper

December 16/17 Snow Wall Obs Thread

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2 minutes ago, Animal said:

This looks about over excepts got some table scraps.

qpf seems much less that modeled.

melted down 5.5 of snow from earlier was 0.49 liquid.

will pull remainder in the morning.

We failed at the WAA thump( the more north peeps did anyway).

We failed at qpf.

We failed and got a quick sleet change.

We look to fail with the second half now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cool.

Thanks....under performer? What were you guys expecting there?

Still a good start to the winter...

I think most of the calls for the city was 3" - 6" so it fell within that (assuming the wrap-around is minor.  I think the models depicted the rain/snow line pretty well but the devil was in the sleet details (although as we got closer to the event, it was evident that there would be a good amount of sleet).  I got about 5.3" of snow in IMBY before the sleetfest. Will have to see if I can core some tomorrow to approximate the sleet amounts before the ZR came (assuming it didn't completely soak through).  I was going to practice getting a ratio (bought a Stratus gauge over the summer to try out).

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I think most of the calls for the city was 3" - 6" so it fell within that (assuming the wrap-around is minor.  I think the models depicted the rain/snow line pretty well but the devil was in the sleet details (although as we got closer to the event, it was evident that there would be a good amount of sleet).  I got about 5.3" of snow in IMBY before the sleetfest. Will have to see if I can core some tomorrow to approximate the sleet amounts before the ZR came (assuming it didn't completely soak through).  I was going to practice getting a ratio (bought a Stratus gauge over the summer to try out).

Nice...high end of the forecast. That sleet really helps retention, which is key as the holidays approach....lowest sun angle helps, too.

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Very pleased with this one. Mid-December and a very traditional winter storm around these parts...thump, mix, slot....maybe a few flakes to wrap things up later. We usually see 2 or 3 of these on avg every season. Im fine with having one under our belts before the solstice. We're on the board and on our way!

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Very pleased with this one. Mid-December and a very traditional winter storm around these parts...thump, mix, slot....maybe a few flakes to wrap things up later. We usually see 2 or 3 of these on avg every season. Im fine with having one under our belts before the solstice. We're on the board and on our way!

Tough to complain about that in a healthy la nina.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cool.

Thanks....under performer? What were you guys expecting there?

Still a good start to the winter...

It's a 50% bust for the north people, the south did about what expected.

 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Very pleased with this one. Mid-December and a very traditional winter storm around these parts...thump, mix, slot....maybe a few flakes to wrap things up later. We usually see 2 or 3 of these on avg every season. Im fine with having one under our belts before the solstice. We're on the board and on our way!

How can you be pleased with a storm that spit out only half the expected Qpf of every model on the planet? If I was younger I would be doing the Clark Griswold rant but I tired.

 

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3 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

We'll just have to see if round 2 transpires. I honestly have no idea at this point.

There's a band of snow back around Harrisburg but am not sure if that will warm as it moves east or what.  There is a little battle going on between the "relatively" warm rain line and the "cold" ZR/sleet line that caused some convective cells to briefly fire.

radar33-12162020.png

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Can someone tell me if the overnight forecast for PHL and just across the river into NJ has changed significantly in the last 2 hours?
I've got one browser tab (accuweather) telling me the overnight high is 35 and it'll be snowing from 1-6am. Weather.com is steadfast that it will go up to 41 and be raining from 10pm till 3am. Then snow from 4-6am. Mount Holly at weather.gov is saying sleet then rain.

Thoughts? 

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Anybody hear from Wentzadelphia and would he have done better at Philly International lmao

 

You do know you likely will see another 3” in Quakertown yes?

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6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

How can you be pleased with a storm that spit out only half the expected Qpf of every model on the planet? If I was younger I would be doing the Clark Griswold rant but I tired.

 

I keep expectations in check especially when being bullseyed at 5+ days out and this early in the season. 

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1 minute ago, Animal said:

8 inches is reported in the mt holly public info statement

That's fine but I got 5.5" I'm several miles north, and Hellertown to the NE is similar.

 

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