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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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CTP updated the forecast and this is what it has now for Harrisburg.

Monday Night
Snow before 1am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Low around 31. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
Tuesday
Snow and freezing rain likely, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

 

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 I remain optimistic but not confident of some kind of turn around to tomorrow and the coming week. I refuse to be obedient to continuously failing forecasting systems.

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13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is not fully decided yet. There are still over 24 hours to go before the event begins and we are still in the game. It won’t take much to get the early week event back to a 3 inch plus s ow event for many of us.

Yeah I know, gosh GFS trended north and now the NAM south maybe we are the jackpot.

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The 18z Euro juiced up the front end snow for the early week event for the Susquehanna Valley especially west of the river. 
Still plenty of time tonight & tomorrow to continue to improve it.

C4C0E8CD-8934-47E2-A6DF-F7BC8A5BEE81.png

C3634F72-B7D0-4185-B726-EEFABA84B0FB.png

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7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Don’t worry everyone...if the 2 events fizzle out this week, the models have begun to focus on another Miller B type of event next Sunday or Monday.

This blocking pattern has to payoff at some point right!?!?

Here is the 12z Euro for the potential event next Early next week.

 

FA5463B9-E6B5-4B82-BAA4-0856200CCC21.png

0AAB3AB0-BA93-41AB-B27E-46558CFA88CF.png

As long as that hits on Monday and not Sunday, I'm ok with it. Like I said, I'm likely to have a Sunday flight out of Scranton or Allentown for job orientation. I don't want it to get screwed up. Besides, I'll be in Houston for a couple of days, so it can rip once I'm up in the air. Just have to worry about where the connecting flight is out of.

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17 minutes ago, Voyager said:

As long as that hits on Monday and not Sunday, I'm ok with it. Like I said, I'm likely to have a Sunday flight out of Scranton or Allentown for job orientation. I don't want it to get screwed up. Besides, I'll be in Houston for a couple of days, so it can rip once I'm up in the air. Just have to worry about where the connecting flight is out of.

If after 2 years of our winter weather you need to be concerned I would rather you be positive, 

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42 minutes ago, paweather said:

If after 2 years of our winter weather you need to be concerned I would rather you be positive, 

If you were out of work for 10 months and didn't have any income for 8 of them and you were heading off for a job that wasn't easy to come by, you might understand where I'm coming from. And I'm not wishing the snow away, I just want it delayed, not denied. 

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Just now, Voyager said:

If you didn't have any income for 10 months and you were heading off for a job that wasn't easy to come by, you might understand where I'm coming from. And I'm not wishing the snow away, I just want it delayed, not denied. 

I haven't either so your talking to the same Voyager. Wish you the best believe me. But don't comer on here and just think others aren't on this same situation. Please. I promote my hobby not my personal life.  And yes, Please some snow soon. Good luck to you! 

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

I haven't either so your talking to the same Voyager. Wish you the best believe me. But don't comer on here and just think others aren't on this same situation. Please. I promote my hobby not my personal life.  And yes, Please some snow soon. Good luck to you! 

Thanks. 

I didn't know you were in the same situation. For that I apologize. As for the board, yes it's about weather, but many of us share our personal stories as well. I see it as a group of like minded friends. We gather because we have the same interests, but the discussions veer off in other directions as well sometimes.

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Voyager,

Good luck with the new job. I hope there's some back unemployment coming your way and that next week's snow holds off until after you've left the area.

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I just checked Williamsport on weather.gov.  Now they are mentioning freezing drizzle for Tuesday for the first time.  Nobody wants that. 

Tuesday
Snow likely before 9am, then areas of freezing drizzle. Cloudy, with a high near 32. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

PAZ024>026-035-036-063>065-252300-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0005.210126T0200Z-210126T1700Z/
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Fulton-Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Carlisle, Gettysburg,
and York
329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to two inches during the first half of
  tonight, followed by ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
  inch during the morning hours Tuesday.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty southeast winds of 25 to 30 mph on
  the ridges could lead to some downed limbs and isolated power
  outages.

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1 minute ago, FHS said:

I hope the system finds a way to overachieve . Good luck FHS ;)

Thanks FHS Keep that big dingus out the dirt my man.

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Don't forget FHS there is no better way to remove Ice than sodium or potassium chloride  wait 1-3 hours then run through a long handle 4-6 tine pitchfork followed by a shovel or a commercial grade propane weed torch along with sod-cl or K-cl.

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

PAZ010>012-017>019-027-028-045-049-050-056-057-059-066-252300-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0005.210126T0500Z-210126T1800Z/
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-
Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Lancaster-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo,
DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Lewistown,
Mifflintown, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport,
Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, and Lancaster
329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to two inches, followed by ice
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the tuesday morning commute.

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Here is part of the CTP forecast discussion this morning :

“Low pressure will lift out of the Mississippi Valley and gradually weaken as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Model consensus is to advect the leading edge of a relatively large area of light to moderate wintry precip northeast across the state this afternoon and early tonight. Sub-Zero C wet bulb temps will occur through a deep enough layer this afternoon through early tonight to support a few to several hour period of snow and accums generally around 1.5-2 inches followed by a several hour period of sleet in most places late tonight and early Tuesday. This will be a widespread, moderate impact weather evening with a layering of a few inches of snow, topped by a thin layer of sleet and freezing rain.”

 

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I'm kind of surprised that the watch doesn't cover all the counties, unless they issue one here for later.

Side note, and probably quite time sensitive since it's a live feed, but check out how hard it's snowing in Flagstaff, AZ right now...

 

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