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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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Ukie north, good for the northern half the region- no second storm

CMC perfect - no second storm

GFS too south for the north folk- ok second storm

 

long way to go

 

 

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19 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ukie north, good for the northern half the region- no second storm

CMC perfect - no second storm

GFS too south for the north folk- ok second storm

 

long way to go

 

 

Dude the ukie only goes out to 144... It still has the 2nd storm and it looks better than the gfs did at 144. Extrapolating, that's probably a hit incoming...

 

Also the ukie is solid for most of the forum on storm one. Yeah the northern tier makes out better but the southern tier still stays frozen verbatim through the whole storm. It'd be 2-3" of snow then ice which I think most would take. The ukie would be a great solution for this forum if it came to fruition.

 

Screenshot_20210121-123305.thumb.png.80ee74e5a63a165c7c999fae1a55259b.png

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28 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Dude the ukie only goes out to 144... It still has the 2nd storm and it looks better than the gfs did at 144. Extrapolating, that's probably a hit incoming...

 

Also the ukie is solid for most of the forum on storm one. Yeah the northern tier makes out better but the southern tier still stays frozen verbatim through the whole storm. It'd be 2-3" of snow then ice which I think most would take. The ukie would be a great solution for this forum if it came to fruition.

 

Screenshot_20210121-123305.thumb.png.80ee74e5a63a165c7c999fae1a55259b.png

Snow maps are worthless as a primary to Erie and thermal profiles quickly go to crap with that setup even the surface gets above freezing by hour 114. Not that any of it matters when it will look different in 12 hours. 

Clearly headed for a squashed CMC wave #2 with a primary tracking through Alabama and a 1040 high north but alas that will change too

 

 

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39 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Dude the ukie only goes out to 144... It still has the 2nd storm and it looks better than the gfs did at 144. Extrapolating, that's probably a hit incoming...

Lol, dont waste your bandwidth. Look who you are talking to....it's Dr No's distant second cousin twice removed Nurse Absolutely Not. He's a deb on everything unless flakes are actually falling at his house and could care less about anyone else here or in other subs. :hurrbear: Teasing you obviously Red but seriously, if this hobby has your outlook so pessimistic you may want to consider collecting stamps or something. Keep hope alive brother.

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Models are hinting at farther N albeit weakened primary for the Tuesday system but more importantly showing better CAD and / or cooling via precip rates East of the Apps. Not surprised given the banana high of Arctic origin pressed under the rex block to the North. Still has the look of a wintry mix/mess for a good chunk ending as snow possibly.

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Lol, dont waste your bandwidth. Look who you are talking to....it's Dr No's distant second cousin twice removed Nurse Absolutely Not. He's a deb on everything unless flakes are actually falling at his house and could care less about anyone else here or in other subs. :hurrbear: Teasing you obviously Red but seriously, if this hobby has your outlook so pessimistic you may want to consider collecting stamps or something. Keep hope alive brother.

12z ECM is good for me and bad for everyone else :devilsmiley:

 

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3 minutes ago, Animal said:

Yea..solid 4-8 inch event likely 

Mentioned in the MA side second wave on the ECM bears resemblance to PD1 if the timing is right. Advisory event of 2-5" Mon-Tue followed with that and call it a winter. 

 

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Snow maps are worthless as a primary to Erie and thermal profiles quickly go to crap with that setup even the surface gets above freezing by hour 114. Not that any of it matters when it will look different in 12 hours. 

Clearly headed for a squashed CMC wave #2 with a primary tracking through Alabama and a 1040 high north but alas that will change too

 

 

I'm going to start calling you RedJi :devilsmiley:

 

The EPS mean is even better than the super weenie 00z run. Still widespread mean of 4-6" for the region on storm #1.

589311032_EPSMEANSTORM1.thumb.PNG.dd9741b619fc89f9174099eb02653022.PNG

 

Then it has a mean of 10-12"  thru 15 days. Very very bullish. Means that high are typically a good indicator we are going to have several chances of white. Gotta stay positive! Here's the 12z EPS weenie map mean, that should help ya!

 

1351965427_EPSMEAN121.thumb.PNG.aead65b7d13fde3ef626a2c078d65649.PNG

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm going to start calling you RedJi :devilsmiley:

 

The EPS mean  is relatively unchanged from 00z. Still widespread mean of 4-6" for the region on storm #1. Then it has a mean of 10-12"  thru 15 days. Very very bullish. Means that high are typically a good indicator we are going to have several chances of white. Gotta stay positive man, things are almost in the sweet spot.

Here it goes all positive from this post forward a regular Ralph 2 prepare for mind blown

 

 

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If we can get that ridge behind the 28th event slightly west we’re in business. If it can just neg tilt a little bit there should be some good precip nw of the shortwave, there’s a lot of ridging in front of it too but the hp saves us. 

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42 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

I'm going to start calling you RedJi :devilsmiley:

 

The EPS mean is even better than the super weenie 00z run. Still widespread mean of 4-6" for the region on storm #1.

589311032_EPSMEANSTORM1.thumb.PNG.dd9741b619fc89f9174099eb02653022.PNG

 

Then it has a mean of 10-12"  thru 15 days. Very very bullish. Means that high are typically a good indicator we are going to have several chances of white. Gotta stay positive! Here's the 12z EPS weenie map mean, that should help ya!

 

1351965427_EPSMEAN121.thumb.PNG.aead65b7d13fde3ef626a2c078d65649.PNG

Do you remember the 46-day control(?) Euro snowfall map from last year? Had us over 55" and we got under 3" during the period iirc. I take these maps with a grain of salt but I agree with you and as I said several times the past 10 days, this upcoming period would at LEAST provide tracking opportunities as the best *potential* of the season thus far. So far so good. 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do you remember the 46-day control(?) Euro snowfall map from last year? Had us over 55" and we got under 3" during the period iirc. I take these maps with a grain of salt but I agree with you and as I said several times the past 10 days, this period would at LEAST provide tracking opportunities as the best *potential* of the season thus far. So far so good. 

I would double the numbers on the bottom map. Last winter is a completely different animal.

 

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Ens and ops really nudged N today with the Mon-Tue system. We need the trend to stop soon and even start to recorrect. Still thinking wintry mix mess for many here, but the continued ticks N are certainly disturbing. Would help with the late week system but I'm not a fan of sacrificing a storm for the next threat. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ens and ops really nudged N today with the Mon-Tue system. We need the trend to stop soon and even start to recorrect. Still thinking wintry mix mess for many here, but the continued ticks N are certainly disturbing. Would help with the late week system but I'm not a fan of sacrificing a storm for the next threat. 

 

Latest  eps  is north  and warmer

This storm is more of a SWFE than a miller B

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600a239c5a52e.png

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16 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Hopefully the south trend starts tomorrow,  even looks like mixing out here yikes.  

That was the original thoughts and looks from 3-4 days ago ie wintry mess for almost everyone here. It's almost laughable how guidance swings to such suppressed looks but somehow almost always without fail revert back to the original threat looks. Not over yet but nobody here should be expecting an all snow event from this. Not saying it can't happen for some spots but this was never a flush hit all-snow look. The snow zone has pretty much always been a narrow swath.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ens and ops really nudged N today with the Mon-Tue system. We need the trend to stop soon and even start to recorrect. Still thinking wintry mix mess for many here, but the continued ticks N are certainly disturbing. Would help with the late week system but I'm not a fan of sacrificing a storm for the next threat. 

 

North ticks are good we need them to pull up wave #2

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

North ticks are good we need them to pull up wave #2

 

Oh it pulled wave 2 north alright!  Down here in Delaware County sloppy snow 2-4” maybe???  Take and run because rain is 40 miles south and  zip from wave 2 which is crushed 650-780 miles to our south 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

GFS is 4-7" good ice to snow

Pretty sure you'll be on heavy duty meds before winter is over....not positive but pretty sure.

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