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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah, I'm not sure why all the pessimism. Maybe it is the futility we've endured the past few years? Impatience? Or do they know something we don't? Hmmmm. 

Nothing has changed. Current blocking/ridging still in the AO/NAO thru the end of the weeklies. -NAM state looks to continue. Colder air finally on the slow ooooze toward the pole and eventually into our source region.

We are only 6 days into January guys...not March. 

I think it's a combination of futility, the Dec. 17th storm going from 95 MECS to SECS last minute, and the fact the pattern has been somewhat of a tease I think are all leading to frustration but I agree that things are looking rocking for the 2nd half of Jan. Seem's like the clipper train opens up and possibly we can get in on some miller B action. Should be fun times ahead and the build up of cold air in the long range combined with the continuation of arctic blocking is very promising. I still think the 12th bears watching too still. Just have to get through this week and we should be tracking threats for the forseeable future imo get some rest...

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5 minutes ago, famartin said:

With everything going on, I forgot that today is the 25th anniversary of the greatest snowstorm of my childhood. If you'd like to relive it with me, I put all the TV footage I recorded then on YouTube: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-9RwNUuaYM&list=PLsKEUOGm0GB4tDPkhigFpNa8pdH0BiZyg

 

Thanks for sharing. I still love going through your winter storm archive. One of my favorite winter weather sites. Any chance you'll find the time to update it again? If it's something you're interested in at all, I wouldn't mind helping either since I know it's got to be a lot of work putting all the maps together. It's an awesome resource to relive the past winter storms .

 

 

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Thanks for sharing. I still love going through your winter storm archive. One of my favorite winter weather sites. Any chance you'll find the time to update it again? If it's something you're interested in at all, I wouldn't mind helping either since I know it's got to be a lot of work putting all the maps together. It's an awesome resource to relive the past winter storms .

 

 

I've been concentrating on other things the last several years. I still keep close tabs and save materials, I just haven't assembled anything in quite a few years.  I suspect that at some point, my focus will shift back towards it... I just can't say when, yet.

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Well all the models at 12z backed off on the 12th threat but still a lot of time and with the amount of s/w's on the field, any solution is far from locked outside 2-3 days. Though it's pretty remarkable that the 8th storm locked as a suppression storm from like 7 days out :lol: we won't see that consistency the rest of winter... 

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Well all the models at 12z backed off on the 12th threat but still a lot of time and with the amount of s/w's on the field, any solution is far from locked outside 2-3 days. Though it's pretty remarkable that the 8th storm locked as a suppression storm from like 7 days out :lol: we won't see that consistency the rest of winter... 

Hard to say if this is a suppression issue or bad timing with the northern stream. We all about needing good timing like what happened in December.

 

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12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Well all the models at 12z backed off on the 12th threat but still a lot of time and with the amount of s/w's on the field, any solution is far from locked outside 2-3 days. Though it's pretty remarkable that the 8th storm locked as a suppression storm from like 7 days out :lol: we won't see that consistency the rest of winter... 

Don't look at the GEFS long range :yikes:

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Don't look at the GEFS long range :yikes:

If it's going to be cold and dry now then I want early spring warmth after groundhog day. 

 

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59 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Don't look at the GEFS long range :yikes:

Still a decent signal for the 12th at least so all is not lost there

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_24.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26.png

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The "good" pattern was always supposed to occur after the 15th. I'll give it until next weekend to see how things are shaping up. If we're still waiting another 10-15 days for the epic 1996 redux pattern or, not the next storm or the next storm, but the storm after the next storm, I'll go full out Ji! :devilsmiley: 

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

The "good" pattern was always supposed to occur after the 15th. I'll give it until next weekend to see how things are shaping up. If we're still waiting another 10-15 days for the epic 1996 redux pattern or, not the next storm or the next storm, but the storm after the next storm, I'll go full out Ji! :devilsmiley: 

The 15th is an excellent date to cancel/continue winter 

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

The "good" pattern was always supposed to occur after the 15th. I'll give it until next weekend to see how things are shaping up. If we're still waiting another 10-15 days for the epic 1996 redux pattern or, not the next storm or the next storm, but the storm after the next storm, I'll go full out Ji! :devilsmiley: 

I seriously may consider turning into a "severe weather guy" rather than a "snow guy".Tracking snow takes so much time and 80%+ of the time you will be disappointed. With severe weather you know when a cold front is coming through/instability....check the radar usually around mid afternoon, hope for red echoes developing and you're good to go. Sit back and enjoy...none of that 10 day out shit only to get screwed. 

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41 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I seriously may consider turning into a "severe weather guy" rather than a "snow guy".Tracking snow takes so much time and 80%+ of the time you will be disappointed. With severe weather you know when a cold front is coming through/instability....check the radar usually around mid afternoon, hope for red echoes developing and you're good to go. Sit back and enjoy...none of that 10 day out shit only to get screwed. 

There is no way out you have a permanent condition sorry

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

There is no way out you have a permanent condition sorry

 

Yeah, I think the only thing that will help me is old age and memory loss. Winter will fly by without me even knowing it...I'll be too busy outside yelling at kids to get the hell off my lawn.

34F

 

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Yeah, I think the only thing that will help me is old age and memory. Winter will fly by without me even knowing it...I'll be too busy outside yelling at kids to get the hell off my lawn.

34F

 

It will be too late because while you were napping they made fresh tracks in your pristine freshly fallen snowy landscape.

 

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It's funny ya know? We can backup into some fluke mid-Dec snow event that shouldn't even have happened given the pattern and historic climatology, yet with almost every teleconnection in a favorable spot headed into the 2nd week of January we cant even muster a flake.

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Looks like we are now through the 20th of January with no support for snow. Need to start looking at February for a pattern change with a cold funnel from the north to produce 1 or 2 decent events.

 

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6 hours ago, RedSky said:

The SSW did it's thing already as Beijing recorded a -3.3F it's lowest temperature since 1966

 

Impressive..it’s been so warm in my area, I can literally wear shorts in the afternoon and a solid sweatshirt to walk the dogs. Sorta feels like a Richmond Virginia winter.

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headed towards the second week in January and I have that sinking feeling that much like last few winters where we chased the the ever elusive 10 day storm and epic pattern change only to never have it materialize could be once again happening, 

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2 hours ago, Animal said:

Impressive..it’s been so warm in my area, I can literally wear shorts in the afternoon and a solid sweatshirt to walk the dogs. Sorta feels like a Richmond Virginia winter.

What????

OMG, and to think I go outside and freeze and shiver.

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What a waste of a negative NAO and AO . This is why people shouldn't hype anything in the long range until things get closer.. Hopefully we all cash in soon.

This is ridiculous 

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Reading the MA forum this morning, sounds like our window may be closing. If we don't score a HECS on Jan 29th between 1-5pm, it's over.

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I'm still not giving up on the 12th yet. Will it most likely fail? yes but still some uncertainty there. I'm going to go a bit weenie to show why I'm still interested but here it goes. The closest model that brings a storm so far is the 12z CMC. It ends up phasing the N stream but just a bit too late. However, take a look at the NAM and RGEM and that piece of energy that phases too late on the CMC is further SE at 84H. Also the GFS doesn't even have that piece of energy :lol:  Will need some really lucky timing for this one to work out but I don't think the threat is dead, yet. I'll give it until Saturday 00z probably before throwing in the towel. If it does end up sliding harmlessly out to see this would be back to back threats the models sniffed out 8 days in advance and didn't budge. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Voyager said:

What????

OMG, and to think I go outside and freeze and shiver.

I go out with thermals and two pair of wool socks, sherpa hoodies etc. and I freeze, I will have to move to the equator 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

I go out with thermals and two pair of wool socks, sherpa hoodies etc. and I freeze, I will have to move to the equator 

 

I haven't had this problem yet but it's called getting old. Didn't you ever go into your parents/grandparents house when you were younger and you thought to yourself, "It's hot as shit in here!".....

36F/Cloudy

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17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I haven't had this problem yet but it's called getting old. Didn't you ever go into your parents/grandparents house when you were younger and you thought to yourself, "It's hot as shit in here!".....

36F/Cloudy

I get so jealous seeing seniors walking around during a heat wave wearing sweaters while I'm walking around panting like a mutt.

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