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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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3 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Pick up .60" so far.

Patiently waiting for the greatest winter since 1996/snowmageddon/last ice age to get under way, 44F.

You've been reading the Mid Atlantic subforum, haven't you? Bunch of sinners over there....

45F

 

 

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1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

You've been reading the Mid Atlantic subforum, haven't you? Bunch of sinners over there....

45F

 

 

Haha...yeah! I should know better.

I really don't mean to be pessimistic, most are targeting mid to late Jan before we see improvements. It just seems we've been here these last few winters -- chasing epic patterns in the LR that fail to materialize. Hopefully the "were due index" pays off this year.

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GEM and new GFS have disjointed messes for early next week. Pick a model any model they all are different this is sad.

 

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

GEM and new GFS have disjointed messes for early next week. Pick a model any model they all are different this is sad.

 

 

I find it's best to stick with the models that show a whiff or rain...they tend to be correct more often than not :P

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You could fit the actual moon between the low placement on the Ukie and ECM this Friday at only 96hrs out. This is something new and will have to be edited into the weenie handbook.

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Animal said:

Can’t wait for Spring at this point.

heart of winter and can’t even get a digital snow storm.

After the SECS I said guidance was promising for the holiday period through early January. Here we are and now it's the second half of January, been here done that.

 

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Last year I successfully jumped on my Jan 15th winter cancel date, year before I held and that worked out. Ten days away. 

 

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17 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I think the 12th is our first real threat of this pattern. 

We've had a few bouts of wintry weather over the past 10 days...nothing major but the slowly evolving hemispheric pattern change has been taking place. There should continue to be tracking chances over the next 10 days as well. Suppression may actually be an issue tho (too much of a good thing) until we hit mid month when the EPO and PNA begin to move colder air over into our source regions and the NAO block relaxes. I dont see the HL blocking fading completely this winter....it has become our base state. But we should see ebbs and flows with the AO/NAO as it seesaws between +/- as well as the PNA/EPO doing the same. This has been our base state of the NAM this season so far. Both PAC and ATL will play a dance and I doubt both work together favorably for sustained periods though transiently I could see both sides being very favorable for us. The nice thing thus far is even tho the PAC has been meh, it has not been completely hostile like last year.

Long story short, next 10 days will provide a few more tracking chances but the real fun begins mid month onwards as the NAO relaxes and a quasi CPF begins to help our cold air source region in Canada. 

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On 1/4/2021 at 1:50 PM, The Iceman said:

I think the 12th is our first real threat of this pattern. 

Euro loves this system. Too much lol. Over amped and at mouth of Delaware Bay. Fun tracking ahead.

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Euro clones the mid December storm in fantasy land eh

 

 

Well, I did say during that storm in a post here to give me that same storm track in January and we can talk. Might get my wish.

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10 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Of interest and perspective our snowfall through January 5th is the the 5th snowiest in the last 15 years.......

TBH I haven't really even realized that, we sit at 13.75 so far. Now that all might change if we don't see another flake this year. 

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On 1/5/2021 at 12:55 AM, RedSky said:

Last year I successfully jumped on my Jan 15th winter cancel date, year before I held and that worked out. Ten days away. 

 

Yea..it’s almost time. Not seeing much for 10 days. Let’s cancel around the 25th.

have not even had any cold air from up north this season.  Once February hits, warm temps are around the corner.

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12 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Of interest and perspective our snowfall through January 5th is the the 5th snowiest in the last 15 years.......

That’s not occurring just south of you.

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This is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. Our standard nickel/dime events. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened

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3 minutes ago, Animal said:

Yea..it’s almost time. Not seeing much for 10 days. Let’s cancel around the 25th.

have not even had any cold air from up north this season.  Once February hits, warm temps are around the corner.

At least 3 individual threats the next 10 days. Mongolian dome of cold already beginning stages of filtering over the pole. So many vorts flying around none of these systems will be realized in the LR....more SR and MR tracking. 

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image.png.13703f912ce403ab6a759f811d69bb3b.png

44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

At least 3 individual threats the next 10 days. Mongolian dome of cold already beginning stages of filtering over the pole. So many vorts flying around none of these systems will be realized in the LR....more SR and MR tracking. 

We have plenty of sufficient cold on the map....a suppressed storm track (always good in my book) and many storms or rumors of storms in our future.....this is not 2019/20....

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25 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

image.png.13703f912ce403ab6a759f811d69bb3b.png

We have plenty of sufficient cold on the map....a suppressed storm track (always good in my book) and many storms or rumors of storms in our future.....this is not 2019/20....

Yeah, I'm not sure why all the pessimism. Maybe it is the futility we've endured the past few years? Impatience? Or do they know something we don't? Hmmmm. 

Nothing has changed. Current blocking/ridging still in the AO/NAO thru the end of the weeklies. -NAM state looks to continue. Colder air finally on the slow ooooze toward the pole and eventually into our source region.

We are only 6 days into January guys...not March. 

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