Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

[TimB]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

You kidding me bro?

A little, yes. This hobby doesn’t suck, it’s no different than being a sports fan or anything like that. There are a lot of punches to the gut, tonight included, but it provides a great deal of enjoyment.

[KPITSnow]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

We need your negativity. It helped in December. 

It’s hard for me to be negative after the year we’ve had. December, given we hadn’t had a good storm really in a decade it was easy go expect a bust.

[blackngoldrules]

After what I've been through personally, missing on a storm doesn't even bother me anymore. I'm just trying to enjoy the hobby again and having storms to track, even if we miss on one, is something to keep me occupied. We'll see what tomorrow brings with the models. We've seen this go both ways in the past, although we've been pretty fortunate so far this season.

 

 

[southpark]

this may lift our spirits...

[KPITSnow]

Oh also, I’m really glad I don’t have to hear about Henry margusity anymore. I think he quit accuweather but he was the absolute worst for overhyping things. I think it was January of 08 where he basically predicted a November 1950 redux about 4 or 5 days out and we got literally nothing.

Acvuweather at that point purposely overhyped everything for page hits.

[north pgh]

Sorry in advance if I offend anyone but some of you people are unbelievable. Wa wa wa! I have been posting since 2003 back on wright weather and have been disappointed more times than not. Currently we are expecting 6-9 inches of snow and maybe some sleet and freezing rain on Monday. This would be a big storm for us. If we are not in the bullseye people complain. We very rarely get the bullseye. Somebody always gets more. So what. Enjoy what you can get. If you want a 24 inch snow move east and you can get one every 5 years and hardly anything else. I am enjoying this winter very much. It reminds me of some of the winters in the 70’s. A nice variety. If we downgrade to 4-7 I will still take it. I don’t want to start any arguments. That’s just how I feel. Anyways 

[SteelCity87]

2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Sorry in advance if I offend anyone but some of you people are unbelievable. Wa wa wa! I have been posting since 2003 back on wright weather and have been disappointed more times than not. Currently we are expecting 6-9 inches of snow and maybe some sleet and freezing rain on Monday. This would be a big storm for us. If we are not in the bullseye people complain. We very rarely get the bullseye. Somebody always gets more. So what. Enjoy what you can get. If you want a 24 inch snow move east and you can get one every 5 years and hardly anything else. I am enjoying this winter very much. It reminds me of some of the winters in the 70’s. A nice variety. If we downgrade to 4-7 I will still take it. I don’t want to start any arguments. That’s just how I feel. Anyways 

I had something similar to this typed out a couple days ago but didn't post. You nailed it. We have had so many letdowns in the past that we can't even sit back and enjoy a great winter while it's happening. 

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Sorry in advance if I offend anyone but some of you people are unbelievable. Wa wa wa! I have been posting since 2003 back on wright weather and have been disappointed more times than not. Currently we are expecting 6-9 inches of snow and maybe some sleet and freezing rain on Monday. This would be a big storm for us. If we are not in the bullseye people complain. We very rarely get the bullseye. Somebody always gets more. So what. Enjoy what you can get. If you want a 24 inch snow move east and you can get one every 5 years and hardly anything else. I am enjoying this winter very much. It reminds me of some of the winters in the 70’s. A nice variety. If we downgrade to 4-7 I will still take it. I don’t want to start any arguments. That’s just how I feel. Anyways 

My complaining isn't serious. I'm trolling. This winter has been a textbook success. We had a white Christmas and multiple moderate storms. Can't complain about that. 

[north pgh]

And another thing.... the Canadian gives us 8-9 inches on Monday with less mix and gives us a solid 4-6 inch front end thump on Thursday. That sucks 

[Rd9108]

Just now, north pgh said:

And another thing.... the Canadian gives us 8-9 inches on Monday with less mix and gives us a solid 4-6 inch front end thump on Thursday. That sucks 

But I wanted 12 for Thursday. Toss. 

[north pgh]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

But I wanted 12 for Thursday. Toss. 

Haha good one. 

Maybe rants is back under a new name. 

[KPITSnow]

Just now, north pgh said:

Haha good one. 

Maybe rants is back under a new name. 

That was my thought. 

[Rd9108]

Just now, north pgh said:

Haha good one. 

Maybe rants is back under a new name. 

I'll stop now. 

[north pgh]

[blackngoldrules]

Sorry in advance if I offend anyone but some of you people are unbelievable. Wa wa wa! I have been posting since 2003 back on wright weather and have been disappointed more times than not. Currently we are expecting 6-9 inches of snow and maybe some sleet and freezing rain on Monday. This would be a big storm for us. If we are not in the bullseye people complain. We very rarely get the bullseye. Somebody always gets more. So what. Enjoy what you can get. If you want a 24 inch snow move east and you can get one every 5 years and hardly anything else. I am enjoying this winter very much. It reminds me of some of the winters in the 70’s. A nice variety. If we downgrade to 4-7 I will still take it. I don’t want to start any arguments. That’s just how I feel. Anyways 

I agree and I kinda said something similar above. What I said was just more personal to me. This is just a hobby, it's not life or death. Just something to occupy our time and enjoy. Whatever happens happens. We still look pretty good for Monday but even if it's a bust, we've done well this winter.

[southpark]

[Rd9108]

Just now, southpark said:

Euro usually follows. 

[southpark]

4 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro usually follows. 

yeah. UKIE is a little bit NW from 12z but not a massive shift.  

[RitualOfTheTrout]

46 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

But I wanted 12 for Thursday. Toss. 

Yeah... This winter is a total disaster dumpster fire. 

I know you're just kidding, so am I. If we bust on these next 2 storms hard to be bitter over it given totals to date even if we don't see another flake til next season.

I don't think this shifts much more one way or another now. I'd guess 50-75 miles, if it's all further NW we see more sleet and rain then dry slot, the other way and its more snow, I think either option is still within the model error at this time.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro usually follows. 

Be careful with UK snow maps, I think it counts sleet and zr as snow but I could be wrong.

[blackngoldrules]

00z Euro

[MikeB_01]

00z Euro

I’ll take this position right now. Time for it to swing a little further south tomorrow. 24 hours to go. Lots of time.


.

[Rd9108]

Also Thursday trended better on the euro. 

[blackngoldrules]

Still trending in the wrong direction unfortunately. Looks like a slopstorm now. If this keeps going further northwest, we may end up with very little snow out of it. Oh well. We've seen this show before over the years. It is what it is.

[jwilson]

I said it in my last post, but the GFS has been trending this way for days.  The increased probability of ice is only a continuation of that trend.  Decreasing the confluence and influence of the arctic jet up north, while continuing to raise heights in the east with a larger southeast ridge.

Here's the look from 0Z GFS back on Thursday:

We had a fairly decent lobe pressing down and squashing the flow from the south, almost creating a due west-to-east wavelength.  It also compacted the isobars much more concretely and you can see the distance between the lower and upper thresholds is much tighter.  The other variable was the shortwave and in this case, it wasn't as deep.

Then here's 12Z on Friday:

We still have that lobe to the north and it is rather large, but now it is less compressed and has shifted to the west considerably, making it more susceptible to a southerly flow.  We also have a much greater influence from the Bermuda high down in the southeast.  The isobars are still compact, to an extent, so there was hope, but the overall trend was concerning.

Now we come to 0Z today:

The lobe to the north has not only elongated, but also reduced its suppressive force and opened up the flow from the south (SW to NE versus flat W-E).  Part of that is deepening the energy in the central U.S.  However, the westerly trend has continued slightly and the isobars have "opened up" to an extent, allowing for a fast flow of warm air from the gulf and points south.  This is why the 850s will be corroded and potentially even the surface (as shown on the NAM).

The 06Z NAM now gives us mostly rain with the Tuesday moisture.  Caution there as the NAM may be playing its classic overamped card, but it remains a possibility and we'll have to monitor the HREF suite to see if that's worth a further look.  If I had a choice between ice and rain, though, I'd almost certainly take plain rain every time.

In the short-term vacuum, this is much harder to see.  It helps a lot to look at the overall movement from days combined and get a sense of which way this is going.  I was hoping the trend would've stopped last night but unfortunately it didn't, in fact continuing.

Now we're rooting for a much less deepened and centralized system and something more akin to weak waves passing along the cold front to keep us all snow.  That also means less snow, overall.

[TimB]

8 hours ago, north pgh said:

Sorry in advance if I offend anyone but some of you people are unbelievable. Wa wa wa! I have been posting since 2003 back on wright weather and have been disappointed more times than not. Currently we are expecting 6-9 inches of snow and maybe some sleet and freezing rain on Monday. This would be a big storm for us. If we are not in the bullseye people complain. We very rarely get the bullseye. Somebody always gets more. So what. Enjoy what you can get. If you want a 24 inch snow move east and you can get one every 5 years and hardly anything else. I am enjoying this winter very much. It reminds me of some of the winters in the 70’s. A nice variety. If we downgrade to 4-7 I will still take it. I don’t want to start any arguments. That’s just how I feel. Anyways 

No offense taken. Perspective is important, and this has been a solid winter, with snow cover for long periods of time and that simply hasn’t happened in recent memory. At this point, the only question to be answered depending on how the rest of the season plays out is “will it be a good winter, a great winter, or a historic winter?” And I think we only need a little more snow the rest of the way to move from the “good” category to the “great” category. But if not, we still got a good winter and it’s been awhile since we’ve had one (I don’t count 2017-2018, despite a high snow total.) I will dial back the complaining.

[TimB]

NWS did downgrade the watch to 4-7 with 0.1-0.2 of ice, but now they’ve gone back to 6-8 with no mention of ice. But they still have ice in the point and click. Odd that they wouldn’t put it in the watch.

[Ahoff]

Also their snow map has downgraded to 4-6".

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Also their snow map has downgraded to 4-6".

In Pgh itself. NW half of the county is still yellow. But the map also shows a not insignificant 0.11” of ice, which would usually be mentioned in the watch?

Also of note: the GFS actually gives us less snow with the Mon-Tues storm than it does with the Thurs storm. And that, despite the fact that it’s showing 3/4” of zr on Thursday.

[blackngoldrules]

NWS did downgrade the watch to 4-7 with 0.1-0.2 of ice, but now they’ve gone back to 6-8 with no mention of ice. But they still have ice in the point and click. Odd that they wouldn’t put it in the watch.

I wonder what made them switch back to all snow with the models trending toward mixed precip and less snow?