Tropical Storm Eta

[cptcatz]

I'm in Boca Raton so watching it carefully.  But there's not much going on right now.  Although I just checked out the satellite and it looks like a whole lot of convection is firing up over the water right now, maybe a spin starting to form?

[turtlehurricane]

An extremely interesting period of weather has begun here. For days we were getting wind gusts of 30-40 mph associated with our first cold front of the year, a cold front which didn't even drop the low temps below 70, so it wasn't enough to cool the waters. 

Indeed, as I write this FLL is gusting to 37 mph.

Now the front is lifting back north and the moisture is returning. It started yesterday with some brief showers coming in off the ocean. Overnight these showers turned into quick moving heavy downpours. Now the radar is really starting to light up, and the NWS says there's a flooding threat even today, and this is just the beginning, with the flood threat increasing overnight and into tomorrow. 

Basically, the rains associated with this system are already underway, and conditions will deteriorate until Eta makes its closest approach on Monday or so. 

It really is up in the air on what exactly will happen with ETA, and if any damaging winds will reach South Florida, but the rain threat is already a certainty. 

[stormwatcherJ]

What are chances of Eta moving east of Florida?

[hawkeye_wx]

Latest Euro has Eta becoming a solid hurricane again in the central gulf, but then drifts north and collapses.

[cptcatz]

No idea if there's a LLC but there's a tight vortex in the upper level clouds visible at 18N 82.5W.  Anything to make out of that?

[Modfan2]

Already heavy rain here in S FL with banding setting up of the ocean; it might be a long 7 days.

[turtlehurricane]

18z GFS takes Eta right through Southeast Florida. First model run in awhile which has shown a direct hit here. 

Hour 78... looks like a hurricane too. That would be crazy and awesome. 

[Prospero]

4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

18z GFS takes Eta right through Southeast Florida. First model run in awhile which has shown a direct hit here. 

Hour 78... looks like a hurricane too. That would be crazy and awesome. 

Wouldn't be surprised if we are watching models in December this year.

If we get a Tropical Storm out of this in Tampa Bay, we might feel like we finally have some immunity for the rest of the season...

But Louisiana doesn't seem to get immune no matter what.

[BombsAway1288]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Latest Euro has Eta becoming a solid hurricane again in the central gulf, but then drifts north and collapses.

The way the operational's have handled TC's in the medium-long range (even short-range) this year, I would be taking anything they show with a grain of salt.

[cptcatz]

18z HWRF and HMON are also trending east with the HMON bringing it right into Biscayne Bay at 982 mb.

[Prospero]

Quote

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h), and a turn toward the north is forecast during the next
several hours.  A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday,
with this motion continuing through Saturday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will be over the western Caribbean Sea
through Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday
night, and be near Cuba on Sunday.

Is it over water yet? Looks like it:

[Modfan2]

Models this evening still show a low end Cat 1 into S FL and then some point west to the gulf; I think the NHC will adjust their cone back north tomorrow 

[Prospero]

Anxious for the sats to start to show something pop up.

[Prospero]

The most fun model to watch for 2020 is the GFS Para. I hope it ends up someday as the "go to" model.

 

[Prospero]

Models are beginning to tighten up. Exciting, yet not great news for Florida. Models have been better this year than any year I remember.

My position for our home and Tampa Bay area is always, "Be as strong as possible without power going out, loss of life, and unreasonable cleanup expense."

[dbullsfan]

Mostly a rain event for Florida it appears but still a ways out and it is still 2020

[cptcatz]

30 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Mostly a rain event for Florida it appears but still a ways out and it is still 2020

Heavy rain bands will start moving through Saturday morning and might continue through Tuesday.  That, plus 40-60 mph winds could easily knock trees over.  Could be significant power outages.

[NorthHillsWx]

Though it’s tough to see a defined center at this point, Eta is generating a large blowup of convection this morning

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

Visible since daybreak...

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Visible since daybreak...

You can faintly see some westerly motion on the southern end of convection but, as expected, the system looks extremely strung out. With a consolidated area of convection ongoing though this isn’t in the worst shape considering the time it spent over land. Would not shock me to see it organize relatively quickly today. Shear for the moment isn’t terrible and it already has a weak circulation and is back over water

[NorthHillsWx]

19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Wow. Didn’t the worst of the eyewall pass to their south too? I know eta wasn’t at peak strength when it made landfall but it definitely had completed its ERC and had a rapidly improving sat presentation not to mention the time it spent raking the coast as it crawled onshore. 140 mph LF is nothing to shake your head at. If there had been more major population centers there this would’ve been disastrous

[turtlehurricane]

The rain threat has underperformed here overnight, but notably Southeast Florida has just been placed under a Flood Watch and a Wind Advisory. NWS thinks the flooding threat and gusty winds will really kick off tonight. 

The frontal boundary over South Florida along with Tropical
  Cyclone Eta forecast by NHC to move through the Florida Straits
  and Florida Keys this weekend will help to bring the very deep
  tropical moisture into South Florida from the Caribbean Sea. The
  grounds are also still somewhat saturated from the late October
  rains over the eastern areas of South Florida. Therefore, it
  will not take much to cause flooding over the region especially
  over the east coast metro areas. At this time, it looks like 5
  to 10 inches are possible over the east coast metro areas
  tapering down to 2 to 5 inches for the west coast metro areas
  with locally higher amounts where showers and thunderstorms
  train through Tuesday. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued
  for the east coast metro areas from tonight through Tuesday
  evening.

Models seem to be quite consistent over the last day about a Southeast Florida landfall of a strong tropical storm or even Cat 1 Hurricane. We will see, it's still up in the air and the track forecast is complex and uncertain, especially until we start getting real center fixes. 

[turtlehurricane]

I just noticed that since were past the time change that NHC advisories are coming out at 10 AM. I've never seen that before, cause there's never been a storm this late in the season that was a threat.

NHC forecast track has Eta making landfall in the Keys and the southernmost Everglades Sunday night, but of course it will be a fairly large system, and tropical storm force winds will mostly be on the north side. Tropical storm watches may be raised as soon as 5 PM, or 10 PM at the latest, if trends continue. 

There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and 
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern 
Florida, the Florida Keys and portions of the Bahamas this weekend 
and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely 
be issued later today or tonight for a portion of this area.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for the 
Cayman Islands at this time, and a Tropical Storm Watch for 
portions of Cuba.  Watches may be required for portions of south 
Florida and the Florida Keys later today or tonight.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

Models seem to be quite consistent over the last day about a Southeast Florida landfall of a strong tropical storm or even Cat 1 Hurricane. We will see, it's still up in the air and the track forecast is complex and uncertain, especially until we start getting real center fixes. 

Models are slowly coming into better agreement and this looks like it will be a fairly significant impacts for southern Florida. It will not be a high end event by any means but given the interaction with the closed low this should take on at least some subtropical characteristics which will lead to an enhanced wind field well away from the center and a long duration onshore flow for the east coast of Florida. Widespread power outages, especially given the antecedent rain and large wind field, are on the table too. This, meteorologically, is going to be an interesting one to watch as it may go from purely tropical to a hybrid on our doorstep and a strong hybrid at that. A minimal subtropical hurricane is certainly on the table with this evolution before dry air kills it in the eastern gulf. These subtropical attributes will allow it to pass over Cuba mostly unscathed and also develop through the keys despite land interaction. This is not going to be a high end wind event, I’m thinking it does make another run at minimal hurricane, but I do think it will bring widespread impacts to southern Florida and may be a decent storm for those there due to duration 

[the ghost of leroy]

Zzzzzz

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF
ETA FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this
system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for
some of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[yoda]

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with 
multiple vorticity centers present.  The central pressure is near 
1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500 
ft.  There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the 
Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of 
heavy rain and their reliability is suspect.  Based on these data, 
the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than 
previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt. 
There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy.  A 
developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is 
expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an 
increase in forward speed.  Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast 
to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing 
Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low.  After 72 h, the 
merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward.  
While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, 
there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of 
both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance 
tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian.  In 
addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance. 
The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous 
track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been 
shifted southward.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean 
during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is 
forecast to be quite strong.  This should allow some strengthening, 
although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly 
vertical wind shear.  The intensity forecast for this part of the 
cyclone's life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies 
near the bulk of the intensity guidance.  Between 48-72 h , Eta may 
take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it 
merges with the mid- to upper-level low.  The HWRF and HMON models 
still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may 
develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this 
morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the 
guidance.  After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the 
cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the
next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for 
portions of Cuba at this time.  Watches may be required for 
portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, 
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along 
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta 
will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in 
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding. 
Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and 
southeast Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions 
of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and 
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern 
Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend 
and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely 
be issued for a portion of this area tonight. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 17.3N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 18.2N  84.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 19.4N  82.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 20.8N  80.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 22.5N  80.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/0600Z 24.2N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  09/1800Z 24.9N  81.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 25.0N  84.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 26.5N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[yoda]

New track is south of mainland FL and barely gets into the Keys

[Modfan2]

16 minutes ago, yoda said:

New track is south of mainland FL and barely gets into the Keys

Still think it will be further NE of this; closer to Homestead