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Tropical Storm Eta

Windspeed

By Windspeed,
in Tropical Headquarters

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jpeters3
jpeters3

I guess this means trump will win the election

BYG Jacob
BYG Jacob
Normandy Ho
Normandy Ho

This is one of the funniest weather moments of my life.  Glad I could share it with yall

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Prospero

Prospero

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Pretty sure the answer is no, for many reasons. Horrible area to chase, don't even know if foreigners can enter right now etc.

Plus without reliable cellular or internet access, why be there. Videos uploaded days later would not have the views.
From what I can tell there are no weather stations to see.

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

I've been in the cone since the afternoon advisory, with a tropical storm projected to be in the Florida Straits on Sunday. 

I don't remember the last time I was in a cone in November. It is quite remarkable.

Ultimately, this reminds me of Hurricane Mitch, which ended up coming across South Florida as a tropical storm. HWRF/HMON show a similar scenario with a tropical storm hitting South Florida, although the scenario is a bit different since it zig zags back into into the Gulf. 

Most notable thing is the tremendous rain that is possible. It's been a wet year here, and this would lead to extreme flooding. 

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
523 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2020

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Eta to move into Nicaragua
and through Honduras tonight into Wednesday before moving back
into the Northwest Caribbean Sea by end of this week. NHC is then
forecasting the system to move into the Florida Straits this
weekend. The long range models are showing a ridge of high
pressure over the southeast United States to move east into the
Atlantic waters, as a trough of low pressure develops over the
Gulf of mexico and moves northeast into the Florida Peninsula.
This will allow for deep tropical moisture to work into South
Florida from the Caribbean Sea late this week into this weekend
where the PWAT values in the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range which at the
maximum value for the PWAT values fro this time of year leading
to the possibility of heavy rainfall across the region.

This means that showers and thunderstorms that do develop will be
capable of producing very heavy rainfall this weekend. At this
time it looks like forecasting at this time around 3 to 7 inches
for the west coast metro areas to 7 to 15 inches for the east
coast metro areas with isolated amounts up to 20 inches mainly
between Friday early next week. Will continue to monitor the the
forecast model runs on the potential of heavy rainfall for South
Florida this weekend, and if trends continue then a Flood Watch
may be needed late this week for this weekend.
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Windspeed

Windspeed

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Posted
Question -- if the LLC circulation gets disrupted by Central America, but the MLC returns over the waters, will it still be Eta?  or a new TC entirely?

It's not crossing into a new basin. Just like an LLC degenerating into an open wave and then reclosing/generating back into a TC, or a PT/ET reacquiring warm core characteristics, it will retain the name. Examples being Harvey, Paulette, etc. If Eta's remnant low/gyre redevelops into a TC in the NW Caribbean, it will retain the name.

 

Beyond remnants crossing into a new basin, examples of when a name wouldn't be retained are if a remnant TC low gets absorbed or phased with an ET or mid-latitudinal frontal low, or a TC develops out of a new surface low within a lingering frontal boundary, as has occurred off the US eastern seaboard with some GOM landfalls.

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, yoda said:

Question -- if the LLC circulation gets disrupted by Central America, but the MLC returns over the waters, will it still be Eta?  or a new TC entirely?

Definitely still Eta.   It drops below TD and a new center forms,   but it's still within the same disturbance.

Harvey and Lee in 2017 were gone for a lot longer before they reformed and kept the same name. 

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Windspeed

Windspeed

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Posted 
000
WTNT44 KNHC 050238
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

The rugged terrain of Central America is taking a toll on Eta.  The 
low-level circulation is losing definition, and deep convection is 
well removed from the center.  Eta was downgraded to a 30-kt 
tropical depression a few hours ago, and the initial intensity is 
held at that value for this advisory.  The strongest winds are 
likely occurring offshore over the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in 
earlier ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data.

Eta, or its remnant low, is forecast to move west-northwestward to 
northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the cyclone 
across portions of Honduras during that time.  In 24 to 36 hours, a 
turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as Eta feels some 
influence from a mid- to upper level trough moving over the 
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  As this trough slides southeastward 
across the Gulf, it should steer Eta northeastward at a faster 
forward speed toward Cuba, likely approaching that country late 
Saturday or Sunday.  After that time, the models show Eta rotating 
around the north side of the trough (or cut-off low) in the 
vicinity of south Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend and 
early next week. There is still a lot of spread in the model tracks 
at the 96- and 120-hour time periods, which is not surprising given 
the expected complex steering pattern.   The NHC track forecast is 
adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into 
better agreement with the latest models, but confidence in the 
details of the extended track forecast is low.

Continued weakening is expected while Eta remains inland over the 
rugged terrain of Central America, and the cyclone will likely 
degenerate into a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday. 
Whatever is left of Eta, and the broad gyre that it is embedded 
within, will move offshore of Belize over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea by Thursday night or Friday. The rate of intensification over 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea will likely be gradual because of the 
mixed environmental conditions.  On one hand, Eta will be moving 
over warm water and in a region of upper-level diffluence, which 
should support convective growth and strengthening.  Conversely, 
there will also be an increase in wind shear and the cyclone is 
likely to have a broad structure, which should prevent rapid 
intensification.  The net result will likely be slow but steady 
strengthening, and Eta is forecast to be a strong tropical storm 
when it is near south Florida.  The models are in fair agreement on 
Eta's future intensity, and this forecast is just a little higher 
than the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain.  Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early
next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 14.2N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  05/1200Z 15.0N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0000Z 16.1N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z 17.2N  86.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 18.2N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 60H  07/1200Z 19.3N  83.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 20.4N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 23.3N  79.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 24.7N  81.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

023955_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the 
land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface 
circulation.  Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds 
are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of 
Honduras.  Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very 
soon, if it hasn't done so already.  Since the low is predicted to 
move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some 
restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend.  However the 
expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are 
likely to limit strengthening over the next several days.  The 
official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model 
consensus.

The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based 
on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt.  Eta, 
or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move 
over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along 
the eastern side of a broader gyre.  This will take the system into 
the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on 
Friday.  A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the 
Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for 
the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in 
3-4 days.  Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically 
around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to 
westward by the end of the forecast period.  The official forecast 
is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward 
the latter model.  This track could take the system near or over 
portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early 
next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially 
at 3-5 days. 


Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain.  Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early
next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 14.5N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 15.0N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 16.2N  87.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 17.4N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 48H  07/0600Z 18.5N  84.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 19.6N  82.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 21.0N  81.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 23.5N  79.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 24.5N  81.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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