MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion

[Wx 24/7]

Of course many of us lived in the dashed areas in SW MO... because... why would anything ever be set in stone. I don't like the ICE outputs for those of you along and just north of I-44. 

[OKTWISTER]

NWS Tulsa holding strong on little freezing precipitation in the Tulsa Metro proper. However the Winter Storm Warning was moved east and Osage and Pawnee counties added and Washington, Nowata and Craig counties added for Winter Weather Advisory. 

 

 

[Wx 24/7]

5 minutes ago, OKTWISTER said:

NWS Tulsa holding strong on little freezing precipitation in the Tulsa Metro proper. However the Winter Storm Warning was moved east and Osage and Pawnee counties added and Washington, Nowata and Craig counties added for Winter Weather Advisory. 

 

 

One thing graphics like this reassure me is the need for polygon based winter products like we do with severe weather. Places like Sand Springs aren't in the advisory despite being further west than others in the advisory. 

[OKTWISTER]

1 minute ago, Wx 24/7 said:

One thing graphics like this reassure me is the need for polygon based winter products like we do with severe weather. Places like Sand Springs aren't in the advisory despite being further west than others in the advisory. 

I agree and we know the line will be much different than the advisory area. 

[StormChazer]

3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

One thing graphics like this reassure me is the need for polygon based winter products like we do with severe weather. Places like Sand Springs aren't in the advisory despite being further west than others in the advisory. 

100% this. What's the criteria anyhow? Greater than 1/2 the county to be included? 1/3? It's very unclear and doesn't paint a proper picture.

What if I end up, in Collinsville, getting an ice storm while Bixby skirts by with cold rain? If I wasn't weather savvy, I would be surprised because there was no advisory or warning due to the current format.

[OKTWISTER]

Just now, StormChazer said:

100% this. What's the criteria anyhow? Greater than 1/2 the county to be included? 1/3? It's very unclear and doesn't paint a proper picture.

What if I end up, in Collinsville, getting an ice storm while Bixby skirts by with cold rain? If I wasn't weather savvy, I would be surprised because there was no advisory or warning due to the current format.

Because you are in Collinsville I expect rain from Owasso to Collinsville and 3-6 inches of snow in Bixby........

[StormChazer]

Just now, OKTWISTER said:

Because you are in Collinsville I expect rain from Owasso to Collinsville and 3-6 inches of snow in Bixby........

Don't you put that evil on me!

[StormChazer]

 

Not lining up as of right now.

[Weatherdemon]

14 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

 

Not lining up as of right now.

Your radar view doesn’t match up with mine.

 

[lokee]

Moderate rain In Moore and we are around 33. 

[StormChazer]

1 minute ago, Weatherdemon said:

Your radar view doesn’t match up with mine.

 

Yeah, it's like christmas lights blinking around lol, pink, then blue, then green, etc.

[lokee]

4:25 Okc radar from Koco Channel five. Seems as if North side oks is a bit colder than the South side right now.

[rockchalk83]

2 hours ago, RocketWX said:

I hear you rockchalk. I live just southeast of Wichita right on the Sedgwick Butler county line and it feels like it's been forever since we've had a snow that completely covered the grass.  This has been a fascinating storm to track and I'm hoping it snaps that streak. A few things I'm watching: Are the Hi Res models showing that eastward shift of qpf on to something? How quick will the changeover to snow occur? I still think there is merit to a heavy band of snow developing somewhere in this area that could over achieve and drop 6"+ even though we are only in a Winter Weather Advisory. 

I am right there with you on all those points. One other question I’ll throw in is how far west does the main deformation precip shield get. I have a hard time buying the razor thin cut off that some are showing, but that may just be wishful thinking. 

The latest model runs give me even more pause that the streak won’t end tomorrow, but it’s time to nowcast this out and see how it evolves. 

Good luck and happy new year to all! We survived 2020.

[StormChazer]

20 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

Your radar view doesn’t match up with mine.

 

Also, you aren’t kidding, you really do live like right next to me. I’m about 1/2 a mile away from that neighborhood Walmart off 116th.

[Weatherdemon]

6 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Also, you aren’t kidding, you really do live like right next to me. I’m about 1/2 a mile away from that neighborhood Walmart off 116th.

We’re at 122nd St N and Garnett back in Country Estates.

[StormChazer]

Just now, Weatherdemon said:

We’re at 122nd St N and Garnett back in Country Estates.

Wow! Small world! We are in Brookfield Crossing at N 115th E Ave.

[NWAflizzard]

Some light sleet falling in Pea Ridge.  Edit:  Rain now. lol.  That was quick

[lokee]

4:45 radar. North side of Moore is seeing freezing rain. Just checked my smoker and there is a thin glaze starting to form on it. 

[OKTWISTER]

 

[MUWX]

It is 6:15 and officially colder now than any model predicted tonight, at least that I saw. 

[lokee]

Power outages are starting to be reported in Oklahoma.

[SWineman]

::Cringe:: I’m sorry to report that the back end of the precipitation is coming with 40+mph gusts. We are in dfw and just had it pass. My folks live off a dirt road close to Ada so I’ve been following both threads.

[JoMo]

They upped my freezing rain to 0.20 to 0.40, up from a max of 0.20. 

[StormChazer]

11 minutes ago, SWineman said:

::Cringe:: I’m sorry to report that the back end of the precipitation is coming with 40+mph gusts. We are in dfw and just had it pass. My folks live off a dirt road close to Ada so I’ve been following both threads.

Thanks for the update!

[StormChazer]

32 in Skiatook now, just 10 miles way from me.

[lokee]

Wind is picking up here in Central Oklahoma.

[StormChazer]

Getting close.

[ouamber]

22 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Getting close.

I’m right above where the T in Tulsa is, just NW of Downtown. We need the temps to drop!

[StormChazer]

8 minutes ago, ouamber said:

I’m right above where the T in Tulsa is, just NW of Downtown. We need the temps to drop!

31.9 in Skiatook now, looks like Tulsa is at 33.3.

[Weatherdemon]

10 minutes ago, ouamber said:

I’m right above where the T in Tulsa is, just NW of Downtown. We need the temps to drop!

I feel you!

I’m a nut hair over 32 here and just rain