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jrips27

TD Sally

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Appears increasingly likely that Sally will bring widespread heavy rainfall to much of the SE. Particularly the I-85 corridor.

Wind threat appears low, but 6-12" of rain can produce problems so figured it was worth a thread.

Happy tracking...

 

Sally_rainfall.gif.7f3af78be4e6c5cac1c78c8da566929f.gifSally_ero.thumb.gif.f5ab71295e4514ee150e0045e9665c9e.gif

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The mountains and foothills look to be on the northern edge for now and it's a good thing. Water levels are still high here and 5+ inches of rain would cause pretty big river flooding issues 

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9/15/2020 12Z GFS Total accumulated rainfall through Hr 78.   FWIW: The NAM has even more rainfall over the I-85 Corridor.   

image.png

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12z euro showing a bullseye of  around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but  6  to 8 seems reasonable. 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

12z euro showing a bullseye of  around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but  6  to 8 seems reasonable. 

The 12z Euro is much slower with the remnants over AL and GA before the front sweeps it out.  If that verifies, the double digits could be attainable. 

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1 hour ago, Lookout said:

12z euro showing a bullseye of  around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but  6  to 8 seems reasonable. 

Seeing as though the forecast keeps trending S/E with the highest totals, I'd say you are correct about being in the bullseye for this thing. FFC has me with 4-6" or so but I'll believe it when I see it. I've heard there will be a very shart cutoff on the north side and I just hope I'm not too far N/W to get some decent totals.

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How is the heaviest rain forecast to be so far north of the center's path? I always thought the heaviest rain was along and to the east of the center which would be Columbus to Macon to Augusta in this instance. For a cyclone that will traverse almost as far south if not as far south as Macon, hard to believe some of its heaviest rain could occur as far north as the northern ATL burbs but maybe I'm wrong, just doubtful.

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8 hours ago, jjwxman said:

9/15/2020 12Z GFS Total accumulated rainfall through Hr 78.   FWIW: The NAM has even more rainfall over the I-85 Corridor.   

image.png

Honestly I've had so many 3-4 inch events over the past 3 years another one will seem like nothing; just another drop in the bucket. I want no part of the euro's 6-10 though.

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Euro and UKMET still shows heaviest rain for upstate and N GA with lighter amounts for the mountains. 

 GFS is a bit further north along with the Hires NAM

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47 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro and UK went slightly north with the heaviest rain

Wow!  Those are big amounts around Hickory on the Euro.  Much bigger than the NAM, WPC, and NWS.

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19 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Wow!  Those are big amounts around Hickory on the Euro.  Much bigger than the NAM, WPC, and NWS.

Yea I think there will be higher amounts in the favored upslope areas in the foothills and upstate. Euro may be catching on to this. The euro tracks it much further north as well

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma (1).png

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28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

00Z NAM continuing the theme 

qpf_acc.us_ma (17).png

Which in turn increases the severe threat over a larger portion of central NC. Look at this sounding about 30 miles south of Greensboro Thursday night via the 00z NAM 12km. 

92C5E8DD-A749-4BBD-BDBB-D7054D5AEEF3.png

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3 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Which in turn increases the severe threat over a larger portion of central NC. Look at this sounding about 30 miles south of Greensboro Thursday night via the 00z NAM 12km. 

92C5E8DD-A749-4BBD-BDBB-D7054D5AEEF3.png

Yikes

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Already 1.75 near Marion. NWS GSP map had a total of 2-3 inches last time I looked but thats going to be on the low end it appears 

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