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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Everyone has roughly 5 inches OTG as an average it seems, ha.  Highest is only 8" at 1,000ft near Jay Peak.  Pretty crazy how uniform the snow depths are.

Even only 14" at 4,000ft.

Untitled.thumb.jpg.33370bb8a92b8c220e28207fb9796bb0.jpg

I’d say I’m closer to a foot with the 4 from a few days ago, but I’m at about 1850’ so numbers look good.

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On 1/13/2021 at 11:09 AM, J.Spin said:

That’s some seriously sage advice – indeed it looks like that NVT vibe is a good fit for you.  Of course, having one of those semi-private powder sessions in the local hills like you did yesterday can really help in that regard.

 

MountainMagic.jpg

Yeah, there are zero complaints about those type of days.  It’s the best stress relief there is.  Ski all day in great conditions and go on a nice long walk with the dog at dusk.  Anyone who can should at least day trip it up here this year.  It was amazing and that really wasn’t even a powder day.  I’m sure they could use the tix sales too.  Looking forward to us all cashing in soon.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

1550'

I keep hearing 1500 is the magic number for a lot of these marginal events.  It was around here last year.  I’m sure Jspin and pf would know. 

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Razor thin margin on this one, but the nam would actually be pretty good here.  Key if some liquid for a while and then pile up the high ratio upslope on top.  That’s exactly what gets the glades open.

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3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I keep hearing 1500 is the magic number for a lot of these marginal events.  It was around here last year.  I’m sure Jspin and pf would know. 

That does seem to be the case. I did really well in the marginal event early in December. About 18.5” between the synoptic stuff and upslope. Places close by but lower in elevation received much less. Hoping for a repeat this time, of course this track is very different. We’ll see. Seems like the atmospheric river total washout is off the table at least. 

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32 minutes ago, tamarack said:

6" paste for Mile Hill at 800', 1" (at most) slush in MBY at 390'.

I'm hoping that turns out, in town elevation is 850', our lowest point on the trail system is 600', the highest I believe is around 1,100. If we could breakeven with this shit storm id do a backflip out of happiness cause that'd be a solid base. 

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26 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

I'm hoping that turns out, in town elevation is 850', our lowest point on the trail system is 600', the highest I believe is around 1,100. If we could breakeven with this shit storm id do a backflip out of happiness cause that'd be a solid base. 

You've got about 50 miles of extra latitude as well as the elevation.  Looking better for there than it did a day or two back.

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1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

I keep hearing 1500 is the magic number for a lot of these marginal events.  It was around here last year.  I’m sure Jspin and pf would know. 

I mean it is but it’s also all relative.  It just happens to be the higher end of inhabited elevations... like 2000ft will be better than 1500ft.  2,500ft would be even better, ha.  It’s just that 1500-1800ft is usually like upper inhabited elevations on the whole.

Down in SNE the 1,000ft level is usually talked about.  Not because 1500ft wouldn’t be better but it’s sort of a relevant elevation.  Like every time in Stowe I’m like wow, 1500ft did well... it turns out 2kft did even better ha.  But it’s kind of a benchmark type elevation.

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56 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That does seem to be the case. I did really well in the marginal event early in December. About 18.5” between the synoptic stuff and upslope. Places close by but lower in elevation received much less. Hoping for a repeat this time, of course this track is very different. We’ll see. Seems like the atmospheric river total washout is off the table at least. 

I’m curious how your new house does with a more southerly wind flow, vs the NE flow in that other storm.  I know you won’t be there, but should be interesting to see how wind flow going over the highest peaks may differ from coming in from the east in a very marginal air mass.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Really healthy backside snows on this run. Not sure if you’d call that upslope or just the CCB wraparound. Either way it looks good. Solid run. Gets parts of Maine  well too. 

Yeah, that looks good Sat night into Sunday morning.  What’s the better upslope track; low over northwest Maine like that or out into the Atlantic?

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Just now, bwt3650 said:

Yeah, that looks good Sat night into Sunday morning.  What’s the better upslope track; low over northwest Maine like that or out into the Atlantic?

I think the gang here said a track like the NAM up into Maine is best. Certainly a robust signal on the NAM for extended snows after the low is well past us. 

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Yes, near or north of Caribou is pretty much perfect for N Greens upslope.  Track was better yesterday for Southern Greens with the LP sitting and spinning between Montreal and Quebec City.  Still time to figure out exactly where this thing ends up.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I mean it is but it’s also all relative.  It just happens to be the higher end of inhabited elevations... like 2000ft will be better than 1500ft.  2,500ft would be even better, ha.  It’s just that 1500-1800ft is usually like upper inhabited elevations on the whole.

Down in SNE the 1,000ft level is usually talked about.  Not because 1500ft wouldn’t be better but it’s sort of a relevant elevation.  Like every time in Stowe I’m like wow, 1500ft did well... it turns out 2kft did even better ha.  But it’s kind of a benchmark type elevation.

True..I guess that sounded kinda dumb.  Obviously elevation is always key.  I just meant in my limited experience, driving up to my spot, many times it would be pouring at the bottom of 242 and right when you hit that spot, it almost always changed over unless it was a massive grinch cutter type deal.  Late in the season, you can watch the leftover plow heaps on the side of the road just explode at about that elevation.
 

Looks like a lot of moisture behind this thing.  Slow it down a little and we could clean up.

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15 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Looks like a lot of moisture behind this thing.  Slow it down a little and we could clean up.

I personally think you do. An upslope signal like that is often $$$ for your area as depicted. I wouldn't be surprised if 75% of the snow out of this is orographic based for you on like 30% of the liquid that comes with it. A right side up storm to get the whole hill more or less in play would be just what the doctor ordered. 

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25 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

True..I guess that sounded kinda dumb.  Obviously elevation is always key.  I just meant in my limited experience, driving up to my spot, many times it would be pouring at the bottom of 242 and right when you hit that spot, it almost always changed over unless it was a massive grinch cutter type deal.  Late in the season, you can watch the leftover plow heaps on the side of the road just explode at about that elevation.
 

Looks like a lot of moisture behind this thing.  Slow it down a little and we could clean up.

Ha no it wasn't dumb, I get what you were saying.  IMO there's a stepwise gradient that often is most noticeable in 500ft jumps.  Like 1000ft, 1500ft, 2000ft, etc.  That 1500-2000ft zone is a snowy one for roadways and inhabitants. 

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1 hour ago, alex said:

Wow we are exactly at the same elevation.

I'm 50-60' lower than both of you - pretty much exactly 1500' in my location. I think we're going to pound precip rates when the LLJ slams into the eastern slope, but it's going to be a nail-biter with the rain/snow line here. Another 500' would make me feel more comfortable. I could literally see 3" of slush followed by pouring rain, or a double digit blue bomb. Definitely nervous but the trends have been positive today.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ha no it wasn't dumb, I get what you were saying.  IMO there's a stepwise gradient that often is most noticeable in 500ft jumps.  Like 1000ft, 1500ft, 2000ft, etc.  That 1500-2000ft zone is a snowy one for roadways and inhabitants. 

To add a little anecdotalness to you step gradient theory, my house is at 1250ft.  It is not uncommon for the battleground to be in my vicinity, down the hill more rain, up the hill more snow and mixing back and forth here at my house.  

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

You've got about 50 miles of extra latitude as well as the elevation.  Looking better for there than it did a day or two back.

Yeah that helps for sure we tend to do well compared to even three towns south of here.

Nice thing being where we're at is we're on the edge of GYX and CAR. CAR has 1-3 then rain, GYX two townships west has 3-5 with almost no rain, problem is the worst case is always the one that seems to win. :lol:

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28 minutes ago, jculligan said:

I'm 50-60' lower than both of you - pretty much exactly 1500' in my location. I think we're going to pound precip rates when the LLJ slams into the eastern slope, but it's going to be a nail-biter with the rain/snow line here. Another 500' would make me feel more comfortable. I could literally see 3" of slush followed by pouring rain, or a double digit blue bomb. Definitely nervous but the trends have been positive today.

Could be interesting to see what they get at the CoCoRaHS site near here up 200 ft. Maybe will make a difference this time, haven't seen much difference yet this winter.

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Been following this storm string for what feels like days, on the fence whether to go to Caribou on Sunday for the week or not, its a $265 covid test gamble. I need to sled!!!  I was able to schedule a free test thankfully, So I think I'll be headed north, free tests are harder to get than you'd think. 

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This gives me a warm fuzzy feeling... 12-hour total on Sunday for upslope.

Synoptic part is likely a let down and then we let cyclonic NW flow do it’s thing.

Snow growth zone is pretty deep too on Sunday, vs the much more narrow -12C to -18C layer on Saturday.

31BC1470-5DFC-4B1B-B644-BC38930E6305.thumb.png.2e8f66e6ae996fc604d28e9dc4d389f6.png

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28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This gives me a warm fuzzy feeling... 12-hour total on Sunday for upslope.

Synoptic part is likely a let down and then we let cyclonic NW flow do it’s thing.

Snow growth zone is pretty wide too on Sunday, vs the much more narrow -12C to -18C layer on Saturday.

31BC1470-5DFC-4B1B-B644-BC38930E6305.thumb.png.2e8f66e6ae996fc604d28e9dc4d389f6.png

Like ripping down upper starr early next week warm fuzzy?  I think that map would do the trick from sugarbush north.

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