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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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9 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Hey everyone; I've been posting in the ski season thread for a few years now but I never formally introduced myself.  I'm Chris and though my primary residence is in NJ I spend a lot of time up at our place in Jay and especially this year, will be up there for a good chunk of the winter.   I care much more about the weather up here than in NJ, so this is the thread I'll follow most.  Obviously, upslope is what gets it done at my location (1900',) so I'm looking forward to learning from you guys about the patterns to watch in this area.  Also, I figured it would be good to have a name to go with the f-u posts from the southern crew when I post pictures knee deep in powder from those three day long upslope events.  Enjoy the winter guys!

Thanks for the info.  I grew up in northern Morris County - anywhere near your NJ place?  Had some great winters there (some awful ones as well) including ~100" both in 60-61 and 66-67.  Took 3" on April 27 to reach triple digits in '67.

Down to 12-13° this AM.  Hit 12° on this date in 2002 for my coldest (before today?) morning in October.

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9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

A new wildcard here is that the NAM wants to blow up that system in the Gulf of Maine and toss some precip back on the area as well.

so does 6z gfs

 

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BTV AFD going all in:

Through the 48-hour period total snowfall will range from a dusting to an inch below 1000 feet, 4-6" from 1000-2000 feet across the Adirondacks and central/northern VT and approaching a foot at the highest peaks.

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9 hours ago, tamarack said:

Thanks for the info.  I grew up in northern Morris County - anywhere near your NJ place?  Had some great winters there (some awful ones as well) including ~100" both in 60-61 and 66-67.  Took 3" on April 27 to reach triple digits in '67.

Down to 12-13° this AM.  Hit 12° on this date in 2002 for my coldest (before today?) morning in October.

I'm about 5 minutes from the Morris County border.  Your old spot in northern Morris is one of the better areas in NJ.  The areas with about 1000' feet of elevation there like Northern Morris, into Passaic, do much better than the immediate NYC metro and the rest of NJ.  In my area of NJ, we can do ok during some of the colder winters if the coastals track just right but the bad winters, wow, are they painful.  Unlike up north, the cold is more important than the precip.  Last year, we literally had no accumulating snow during the winter outside of maybe one small event.  11-12 was bad here too.  We had a good stretch in 10-11, 13-14 and 14-15 .  Snow retention is really the issue.  Outside of those three, I don't remember any winters recently that had snow cover for more than a week or two. 

I love being up North when it just looks like winter all season.  Northern VT is great too for the up-slope component; you don't have to have that big, perfect, synoptic setup to snow.  I'll take the 3-6 five days a week over the monsters.  I'm interested to compare how my location does with up-slope compared to PF, Phin, J spin and others and to compare what wind patterns and setups dump snow where.  Jay and Mansfield seem to do well in similar conditions.  This will be my first winter really spending a lot of time up there so I'm curious to compare event totals with everyone else.

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1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

I'm about 5 minutes from the Morris County border.  Your old spot in northern Morris is one of the better areas in NJ.  The areas with about 1000' feet of elevation there like Northern Morris, into Passaic, do much better than the immediate NYC metro and the rest of NJ.  In my area of NJ, we can do ok during some of the colder winters if the coastals track just right but the bad winters, wow, are they painful.  Unlike up north, the cold is more important than the precip.  Last year, we literally had no accumulating snow during the winter outside of maybe one small event.  11-12 was bad here too.  We had a good stretch in 10-11, 13-14 and 14-15 .  Snow retention is really the issue.  Outside of those three, I don't remember any winters recently that had snow cover for more than a week or two. 

I love being up North when it just looks like winter all season.  Northern VT is great too for the up-slope component; you don't have to have that big, perfect, synoptic setup to snow.  I'll take the 3-6 five days a week over the monsters.  I'm interested to compare how my location does with up-slope compared to PF, Phin, J spin and others and to compare what wind patterns and setups dump snow where.  Jay and Mansfield seem to do well in similar conditions.  This will be my first winter really spending a lot of time up there so I'm curious to compare event totals with everyone else.

I know its different now and peoples schedules are more flexible, but I dont know how you can do a 6 hour drive for a weekend and then head back to NJ.  I'm beat doing a 6-7 minute drive back after a long day..lol

 

 

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37 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I know its different now and peoples schedules are more flexible, but I dont know how you can do a 6 hour drive for a weekend and then head back to NJ.  I'm beat doing a 6-7 minute drive back after a long day..lol

 

 

My wife is the same way; hates the drive.  Me, I just put on some tunes and go..the drive doesn't really bother me unless the weather is bad.  The weekend trips are a quick turnaround, but this year with the restrictions for VT, we will be doing bigger chunks of time up there.  During normal winters midweek, I'll make the drive to southern VT. in the same day all the time.  Anything north of Killington is a lot in one day, but I've done it.  Skiing is def a sickness in that way.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

BTV AFD going all in:

Through the 48-hour period total snowfall will range from a dusting to an inch below 1000 feet, 4-6" from 1000-2000 feet across the Adirondacks and central/northern VT and approaching a foot at the highest peaks.

I was going to go check on the latest BTV NWS thoughts in the discussion, but the excerpt you posted summarizes things quickly.  From looking at the models earlier today, my estimate for accumulations here at our site was something in the 3-6” range.  Applying their dusting to an inch below 1,000’ estimate would seem a bit on the low side here with the temperatures in the forecast, and it’s definitely inconsistent with the roughly 4-8” in our point forecast.  The Mansfield point forecast is in the 6-12” range, so that seems in line with their summary.

In any case, there’s enough potential to suggest keeping the boards ready.

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Just now, J.Spin said:

I was going to go check on the latest BTV NWS thoughts in the discussion, but the excerpt you posted summarizes things quickly.  From looking at the models earlier today, my estimate for accumulations here at our site was something in the 3-6” range.  Applying their dusting to an inch below 1,000’ estimate would seem a bit on the low side here with the temperatures in the forecast, and it’s definitely inconsistent with the roughly 4-8” in our point forecast.  The Mansfield point forecast is in the 6-12” range, so that seems in line with their summary.

In any case, there’s enough potential to suggest keeping the boards ready.

For sure, I don't think this will be as elevation dependent except the first wave maybe?  I think 2-4"/3-6" is possible for the lower elevations surrounding the Spine and in the Spine.  I full expect it to be the first widespread accumulating snow in the inhabited areas around here.

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Visiting winter on the Upper East Side.

It is very obvious this time of year how well the east slope preserves snow...and shows how the Stowe side of Mansfield builds such a deep snowpack only seeing direct sunlight in the morning hours (coldest part of the day).  The sunsets up here at like 1PM (goes into the shadows) so that it is getting zero sunlight during the warmest part of the day in the afternoon. 

The east side of Mansfield looked a lot more wintry than anywhere around here, much lower residual snow level too.  There was coatings of snow as low as 1,800ft on the east slope while over at south facing Spruce it looked like that level was 3,000ft for any sign of winter.

Avoiding afternoon sunlight does wonders for snow preservation, ha.

123403022_10104359816779090_478150015565

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I know its different now and peoples schedules are more flexible, but I dont know how you can do a 6 hour drive for a weekend and then head back to NJ.  I'm beat doing a 6-7 minute drive back after a long day..lol

 

 

Our schedule this winter will be 3 weeks in NH, 9 days in MD. Rinse and repeat until May. We plan to switch primary residency to NH in the summer. Tough to do in the middle of the school year, even with homeschooling (which is still tied to state programs).

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the signal is there.  This isn't something that usually changes all that much like a nor'easter or synoptic event.  The upslope/mountains are the lift and they don't move.

 

4 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I love being up North when it just looks like winter all season.  Northern VT is great too for the up-slope component; you don't have to have that big, perfect, synoptic setup to snow.  I'll take the 3-6 five days a week over the monsters.

Yeah bwt, that’s an important point when it comes to skiing.  A climate with just the occasional big synoptic storms with long interludes of rain, warmth, or simply lack of fresh snow is really not an optimal way to run a ski season.  Sure, some places like the Sierra or the more feast/famine areas of the Rockies can pull it off reasonably well because of the dry climate and typical lack of rain, but trying that in most climates just means you’re going to end up skiing a lot of hard, icy, manmade snow.  Consistent snowfall is a pretty big component in creating quality ski surfaces, and critical for providing significant powder skiing.  As you can see from PF’s comment above to Phin, there’s a lot more consistency is some of these other types of events, and you don’t have to worry too much about somehow getting lucky to be under some key area of lift when the lift is literally locked in place near the mountains.

Bread&Butter.jpg

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15 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I'm about 5 minutes from the Morris County border.  Your old spot in northern Morris is one of the better areas in NJ.  The areas with about 1000' feet of elevation there like Northern Morris, into Passaic, do much better than the immediate NYC metro and the rest of NJ.  In my area of NJ, we can do ok during some of the colder winters if the coastals track just right but the bad winters, wow, are they painful.  Unlike up north, the cold is more important than the precip.  Last year, we literally had no accumulating snow during the winter outside of maybe one small event.  11-12 was bad here too.  We had a good stretch in 10-11, 13-14 and 14-15 .  Snow retention is really the issue.  Outside of those three, I don't remember any winters recently that had snow cover for more than a week or two. 

I love being up North when it just looks like winter all season.  Northern VT is great too for the up-slope component; you don't have to have that big, perfect, synoptic setup to snow.  I'll take the 3-6 five days a week over the monsters.  I'm interested to compare how my location does with up-slope compared to PF, Phin, J spin and others and to compare what wind patterns and setups dump snow where.  Jay and Mansfield seem to do well in similar conditions.  This will be my first winter really spending a lot of time up there so I'm curious to compare event totals with everyone else.

Where I grew up in NJ 1950-71 (moved there when I was 4) was a lake community and our place was at about 700' - the town had some hills 900+ but for 1000 one has to be several towns west or north.  After the Feb 3-4, 1961 blizzard we had perhaps 45" pack while Oak Ridge and Canistear Reservoirs reported 50" and 52", respectively, by far NJ's greatest depths on record.

Our current residence in the W. Maine foothills is death valley for upslope but one of the better CAD locales in NNE.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Really excited about my first upslope event. Models are all painting a local bullseye on the northern Presidentials which touches my house, so I am taking that as a good signal. Looking forward to comparing notes with the upslope crew after this first event.

My guess is to take the under If your thinking above  3”

There is a good GYX Paper on upslope Snows in N NH and NW Maine and some discussion on the factors that differentiate the small to medium events with the very rare larger event and where they tend to max and what factors to look for . You would probably enjoy the read as you will have several events . 

https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2009-03.pdf

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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My guess is to take the under If your thinking above  3”

There is a good GYX Paper on upslope Snows in N NH and NW Maine and some discussion on the factors that differentiate the small to medium events with the very rare larger event and where they tend to max and what factors to look for . You would probably enjoy the read as you will have several events . 

https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2009-03.pdf

2-3" is what I am hoping to see. As always, my bar is flakes in the air.

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Really excited about my first upslope event. Models are all painting a local bullseye on the northern Presidentials which touches my house, so I am taking that as a good signal. Looking forward to comparing notes with the upslope crew after this first event.

You might have snow cover from Halloween to Easter

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26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My guess is to take the under If your thinking above  3”

There is a good GYX Paper on upslope Snows in N NH and NW Maine and some discussion on the factors that differentiate the small to medium events with the very rare larger event and where they tend to max and what factors to look for . You would probably enjoy the read as you will have several events . 

https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2009-03.pdf

I have skimmed that paper. One thing that I think stands out in it is the lack of good data (not NWS' fault). You can see it in the maps. Gorham is not getting more snow than York Pond in the average event, IMO. Gorham is routinely dried out in events around here when the elevated areas are getting pounded. That's something I have noticed a lot already. I doubt Jefferson is beating York Pond either. It looks like NWS had decent data for these two areas and so that's why they stick out as local maxes.

The time period is also 2001-2007, prior to the current Randolph observer. It will be interesting to see, but I really doubt Gorham is going to beat me in any category this winter.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I have skimmed that paper. One thing that I think stands out in it is the lack of good data (not NWS' fault). You can see it in the maps. Gorham is not getting more snow than York Pond in the average event, IMO. Gorham is routinely dried out in events around here when the elevated areas are getting pounded. That's something I have noticed a lot already. I doubt Jefferson is beating York Pond either. It looks like NWS had decent data for these two areas and so that's why they stick out as local maxes.

The time period is also 2001-2007, prior to the current Randolph observer. It will be interesting to see, but I really doubt Gorham is going to beat me in any category this winter.

Ya, the amount of data is sparse

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Jeez.... the 4km BTV output is signaling a big event if this is the first part tomorrow.

Those 850mb temps are in the sweet spot for great snow growth...most of the better UVVs are just above the ridge crests in that 850-750mb level, so I typically use -10C as a ballmark temp for the sweet spot.  I've found our best events do come with 850mb temps in that low negative teens range.

Monday morning into early afternoon it wants to rip 0.05"/hr water at -8C to -12C and Froude numbers are quite high indicating unblocked flow, should allow for good eastward movement of the precipitation downwind of the barrier.  This model has some significant QPF for the northern Greens just through Monday evening before the Monday night/Tuesday morning event swings through.

Wind direction at 290-300 degrees is right in that sweet spot too.  Really nothing to complain about on this output.  The sharply rising Froude number after 16z indicates more squally weather to me as depth of mixing increases.  Probably becomes more cellular with graupel tomorrow afternoon before the first wave shuts down.

BTV4.jpg.2fb4eedc47125ffba16f721b47c28ccd.jpg

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34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Jeez.... the 4km BTV output is signaling a big event if this is the first part tomorrow.

Those 850mb temps are in the sweet spot for great snow growth...most of the better UVVs are just above the ridge crests in that 850-750mb level, so I typically use -10C as a ballmark temp for the sweet spot.  I've found our best events do come with 850mb temps in that low negative teens range.

Monday morning into early afternoon it wants to rip 0.05"/hr water at -8C to -12C and Froude numbers are quite high indicating unblocked flow, should allow for good eastward movement of the precipitation downwind of the barrier.  This model has some significant QPF for the northern Greens just through Monday evening before the Monday night/Tuesday morning event swings through.

Wind direction at 290-300 degrees is right in that sweet spot too.  Really nothing to complain about on this output.  The sharply rising Froude number after 16z indicates more squally weather to me as depth of mixing increases.  Probably becomes more cellular with graupel tomorrow afternoon before the first wave shuts down.

BTV4.jpg.2fb4eedc47125ffba16f721b47c28ccd.jpg

Such a great educational post for someone like me trying to learn about these up-slope events.  I was literally just reading a paper about the blocked vs. unblocked events and froude numbers (all new to me).  So it looks like for the Jay/Mansfield area, we want an unblocked flow which leads to greater precip on the the eastern side?  What Froude number is best; anything over 1?  

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2 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Such a great educational post for someone like me trying to learn about these up-slope events.  I was literally just reading a paper about the blocked vs. unblocked events and froude numbers (all new to me).  So it looks like for the Jay/Mansfield area, we want an unblocked flow which leads to greater precip on the the eastern side?  What Froude number is best; anything over 1?  

The peaks do fine in most events to be honest... I personally like 1+ as that gets snow into town on this side usually.  0.5-0.75 usually doesn’t get much more than flurries in town and puts the snow over in Jericho and Underhill on west side.  

0.75-1.25 is usually a good sweet spot for the peaks.  To me most of the Froude is to determine what inhabited areas get more snow, like RT 100 corridor east side or the west slope communities.  Sharply rising Froude to me also signals for cellular squally weather that can go way downstream into E.VT even.

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41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm looking for 2-3" at home and maybe 6" at the office at 1,500ft.

That seems quite reasonable.  It still feels like 3-6” would be a decent range here at our site based on the recent model runs, although there are a couple models like the ICON and NAM 12 that would suggest something leaner.  That 3-6” range would actually be right in between your home and office numbers, which wouldn’t be surprising at all for here.  The Froude Numbers can make a difference of course, and temperatures may play some role down at our elevation.

Our BTV NWS point forecast here sums near the 5-10” range, which seems a bit potent, but if we do get the 0.5”-1.0” of liquid shown in some of the models, that wouldn’t be outrageous at all if ratios are decent.  It would also depend on how much of that liquid falls before changeover.

We’ll see what they think in the next BTV NWS forecast discussion.

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