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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he’s on the wrong side of Pinkham notch for upslope. 

The synoptic stuff will come though. Some years there’s a couple good ones in November but other years it seems like you’re waiting and then all of the sudden you get destroyed by several in a row in December.  

Yeah I think it’s all pretty normal to above normal for places in SNE and NNE that have seen events (outside that zone south of the Whites into adjacent Maine)... I feel for Phin, we all told him he’d be absolutely buried for 6 months... but sometimes the bigger synoptic snows don’t come until Christmas or later even.  Sometimes we can nickel and dime for quite a while too.  Hopefully he’s not at 40+” cumulative at the end of December wondering why he hasn’t had more than 7” on the ground at any point, ha.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I think it’s all pretty normal to above normal for places in SNE and NNE that have seen events (outside that zone south of the Whites into adjacent Maine)... I feel for Phin, we all told him he’d be absolutely buried for 6 months... but sometimes the bigger synoptic snows don’t come until Christmas or later even.  Sometimes we can nickel and dime for quite a while too.  Hopefully he’s not at 40+” cumulative at the end of December wondering why he hasn’t had more than 7” on the ground at any point, ha.

LOL

Dang fake snow keeps tricking me. 

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26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I’m up to 32.5 here already so this is not going to be a CAD setup here. 

26.8F   CAD rules here.  SW to NE valley drains the cold right down to me.  Many times I have been warmer than Alex in these types of situations.  Let's see how long it takes for me to get up to 32F

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19 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

26.8F   CAD rules here.  SW to NE valley drains the cold right down to me.  Many times I have been warmer than Alex in these types of situations.  Let's see how long it takes for me to get up to 32F

I think he (Phin and Alex) needs more of a high to the north and the flow 2000ft up not ripping from the SSE already. This is a marginal event anyways so no real loss. 

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3 hours ago, alex said:

Mission accomplished

047B3F86-455D-4174-9A23-8BEEDD697F54.jpeg

Alex did you have this home built? What’s a new construction cabin like yours run up there you think? 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I think it’s all pretty normal to above normal for places in SNE and NNE that have seen events (outside that zone south of the Whites into adjacent Maine)... I feel for Phin, we all told him he’d be absolutely buried for 6 months... but sometimes the bigger synoptic snows don’t come until Christmas or later even.  Sometimes we can nickel and dime for quite a while too.  Hopefully he’s not at 40+” cumulative at the end of December wondering why he hasn’t had more than 7” on the ground at any point, ha.

In the upslope spots of N  VT you just have such a lower variance . Can’t really do worse than 150” at 2K from  Nov to end of  April 

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think he (Phin and Alex) needs more of a high to the north and the flow 2000ft up not ripping from the SSE already. This is a marginal event anyways so no real loss. 

Yeah...deeper CAD and they’re fine. When it turns into one of those shallow in-situ deals they will probably mix out a bit before Gene and I. But it’s not like it’s going to cost them much...maybe a little less freezing drizzle in some events.

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47 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In the upslope spots of N  VT you just have such a lower variance . Can’t really do worse than 150” at 2K from  Nov to end of  April 

The low variance is why we LOL a bit when we see any sort of seasonal forecasts calling for 150% of average snowfall around here.  Heck, even 125% of average snowfall can be hard to achieve.  For the local mountain locations, 125% of average snowfall means you’re in the range of 400 inches of snow.  That doesn’t happen very often, and indeed if one of the Northern Greens resorts get a 400” season, it’s a solid season.  The flip side on that variance is the safety net aspect though; it’s also hard to get really poor snowfall seasons.

For those weenie types that are into snow and snowstorms for the emotional roller coaster that comes with the highs and lows, boom and bust of a large variance snow climate, or just want a thrill from tracking storms in the models and don’t really care about the actual utility of the snow, this isn’t necessarily the best climate.  If you just want a lot of snow and don’t really want to worry about it too much, this is great climate.

As a scientist who’s interested in rigorously documenting the unique snow microclimate here, and as a skier looking for powder and overall quality natural snow conditions for skiing, I personally find this area great.  If you’d rather have the occasional blockbuster/blizzard type setup that dumps a bunch of snow, then you can clean it up and be done with it and move on, this isn’t going to be the place.  Yeah we get plenty of decent synoptic storms, but if 100 days of snow globe flakes a season, and lots of cloudier days on top of that, feels like more of a nuisance, this climate might feel frustrating.

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Up to 30.0F   Dusting of snow on the ground is just sitting there.  They salted roads here but just drove south 5 miles to Bristol and there was very little evidence they got anything earlier this morning.

Another  .25" down in my yearly snow total.  Ouch on the Euro for next week.  5" of rain?  Good for the drought.  A nice deep soak into the deep roots of trees before the ground freezes up.  Not so good for winter enthusiasts. 

 

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6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Up to 30.0F   Dusting of snow on the ground is just sitting there.  They salted roads here but just drove south 5 miles to Bristol and there was very little evidence they got anything earlier this morning.

Another  .25" down in my yearly snow total.  Ouch on the Euro for next week.  5" of rain?  Good for the drought.  A nice deep soak into the deep roots of trees before the ground freezes up.  Not so good for winter enthusiasts. 

 

I'm really interested in comparing my location to other CAD-prone spots in the state this year. I spent five years at PSU, so I know how the cold air loves to get tucked into the Pemi Valley during these in-situ events. I'm sure each CAD-prone location has a very specific setup in terms of the wind direction, location of high pressure, etc. and some events will favor your area while others favor mine.

That said...we are holding at 29F right now. Solid winter day out there.

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s been snowing pretty hard here at the mountain with another half inch at 1,500ft in the last hour or so.

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Since this morning’s snow, it’s really been just cloudy here with the occasional flurry.  About an hour ago though we began to get more consistent snowfall, and we’re getting consistent light snow now with big flakes.  Presumably the atmosphere has been moistening up with this recent pulse that came into the area to get these flakes all the way down to the valley.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Kinda weird. Radar has looked good for an hour but just spitting snow. Even the peaks across the way are clear and totally visible. 

Should get another burst from the west next hour or so.

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17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:


Nice little event 

Can U check and see how much is at that plot at 1900” in eden , VT Lol

Ha no can only show you my backyard.  My elevated board stand in the garden.

What a difference in mood though when you can’t see the grass even if the depth is only 3”.

Im sure 1900ft in Eden has 6-7” on the ground right now like 1500ft at Mansfield lol.  For a shitty pattern it has wanted to snow if that makes sense.  Every little opportunity seems to be getting made the most of it.

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2F29FE1C-167D-4624-A8FB-44F4A38BBB43.jpeg.7db3b0a37a9f6e518cce1e5735f1857a.jpeg

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2nd batch of SN noon-2 added 0.6" for a total of 1.4".  Very pretty in the woods, though no tracks were seen - the critters will probably be moving around tonight.  About 3:40 I heard stuff rattling thru the trees - sounded like IP but looked like heavily rimed flakes.  Some had not completely refrozen so our steps have some gritty ice, less than 0.05".  With temps still about 24, the incomplete refreeze suggests that the warmer air isn't too far above. 

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Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.15” L.E.

We picked up an additional 0.2” of snow with today’s activity.  The models don’t really show any backside snow with this system, so what we’ve had thus far could be it for the snow with this event.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 33.6 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

 

I haven’t cored the snowpack, but it’s probably only got about a third of an inch of liquid in it.  Still, I don’t think it’s all just going to disappear overnight based our forecast of temperatures just a bit above freezing, so another white Thanksgiving seems likely.

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9 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

Alex did you have this home built? What’s a new construction cabin like yours run up there you think? 

Yes I had it built. We love it but honestly, when it's all said and done it costed a lot more to build than I expected - ended up right around a million. But we did finish the basement as well, which wasn't in the original plan, and did a lot of stonework inside which wasn't cheap. 

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