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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s also crazy to see the good possibility that the panhandles of Oklahoma & Texas, and most of Kansas, could see their first snow in the next couple of days.

This is a reminder than parts of Dallas had more snow last season than Harrisburg. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

This is a reminder than parts of Dallas had more snow last season than Harrisburg. 

Who cares about Dallas or its football team!!!

By the way, how ‘bout them Cowboys!!!!

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On 10/25/2020 at 6:05 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

This system has my attention as well. It’s time for me to get into winter storm tracking shape!

We might need to do an early snow chase to the home of our poster near Clearfield.

 

A friend said they saw snow up on top last evening at a buddys place just west of Gaines. 

I'll be up Wed night (cabin at 2275') and I'm anticipating hunting in snow Friday.  Go look at the 6 z para (and several prior runs fwiw).  Seeing enough continuity to keep eye brows raised for some white for sure.    

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12z Euro is a legit snow storm from Central PA above I-80 up into NE interior. Laurels and Allegheny National Forest also in play.

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

Where is our Williamsport Friend? :-) Hope they get a good early one. 

Caveat to this run is that latitude and elevation help.

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I see the Euro op continues to show the potentially snowier solution, which is certainly on the table for the north central counties and possibly the Laurels as well. A quick look at things shows the Euro/Euro ensemble has a notably sharper 500mb trough than the GFS/GEFS and thus a much deeper surface low. Pattern is somewhat progressive, and that probably limits the amount of phasing where we'd see something much wilder in the wintry department here. But either way, I think even a compromise of that guidance would support a solid chance of flakes in the C-PA high ground towards the end of this late week system. The chances look a lot better further up into the NEUS, with even the immediate interior of southern New England showing solid snow on both models. 

Seeing snow nearby or even some flakes here at the house to end October would be nice.. although I'm eyeing up the big time rainfall potential being presented with an already sizable mid-latitude system on its own PLUS yanking up Zeta into it. It's one of those setups that could stop the immediate short term effects of our drought in its tracks. 

122481108_3624533930931001_6698741966902208550_o.thumb.png.7449da9fdf8fec3717756041676f0c65.png

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@pasnownut enjoy your trip up north later this week. Sure looks like you'll be playing in some white gold. Enjoy every minute of it.

Didn’t you hear that he invited us all up to his cabin to have a get together in the early snow?!?!

 

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3 hours ago, paweather said:

:pepsi: You just gotta love these weather sites.

 

85E8E444-CAE3-4F37-BF2F-DFD56E7AF24E.jpeg

That’s great! I only need a 30 mile shift south to get into the “snow probable” zone!

This is my new favorite forecaster!

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Well, the way too early look at the 12km NAM looks fun. 984mb low sitting dead center on the NJ coastline at 84hrs with a changeover starting in NW PA hr 78 and by 84 is showing approx 2/3rd of PA changed or mixing. And that's after a basically PA-wide 2"+ of rain has fallen. Def in the Euro camp with the souped up coastal low (though 18z Euro run wasn't quite as wound up). All normal NAM disclaimers aside, I do like to see what it's looking like when a storm is just getting into the edge of it's range in comparison to especially the Euro. 

Here's the kind of snow accumulation makeup we're seeing via the latest Euro ensemble probs. It's quite a sold snow signal for NY state/VT/NH and into a good bit of southern New England. Showing the probs of 1+ in 24 hrs, which shows how far things could reach with a potential changeover.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-snow_24hr_ge_1-4124000.thumb.png.1aee24d6e310235af2369001139de9bb.png

I will mention that there are half decent 3"+ probs down to about US 6 in the northern tier of PA, those probs and the 6"+ ones focus on NY State/VT/NH/northern MA/southern ME. Couple 12+ probs show just in the Adirondacks and also Green&White Mountains. So to simplify, the Euro ensembles are liking a general 4-8" type storm centered in those aforementioned northeastern locations. The 18z GEFS is similar placement wise, just simply less overall since that op and ensemble have been less amped. 

 

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7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Didn’t you hear that he invited us all up to his cabin to have a get together in the early snow?!?!

 

We'll be out in treestands, but the fridge is full and you can greet us w/ a brewskie at the end of the evening hunt. 

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14 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i knew we were dry, but didn't realize just how bad until i aerated. i'll take the rain

Did you enjoy using the jackhammer?

lolol

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